$3.30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: SHOVE OR FOLD?

[anthony c]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/24/1

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/24/1

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/24/1

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/24/1

BLINDS ARE 600/1200 ANTE 150. VILLAIN STATS: VPIP 29, PFR 24, AGR 1 AND 3 BET 25% OUT 8 ONLY 18 hands.

I OPEN AQ/OFF UTG+2 (20BB) AND GET 3 BET BY VILLAIN (94BB) BUT HE TANKS AND HIS CLOCK IS RUNNING AND THEN 3 BETS 3 TIMES MY OPEN AND HE HAS A BIG STACK(94BB) SO I THOUGHT HE COULD NOT BE SO STRONG AND HE WONT DO THAT WITH AA,KK,QQ OR AK HE WOULD 3 BET A LITTLE FASTER SO I SHOVED THINKING THAT. IS THAT CORRECT THINKING LIKE THAT OR DO THEY TANK FOR DECEPTION. OBV. I THINK HE THOUGH ABOUT JUST CALLING.

ALSO KNOWING THAT HE TANKED AND DONT HAVE AA,KK,QQ,AK IS IT STILL A SHOVE OR FOLD?? I THINK CALLING IS THE WORST OPTION OR COULD YOU CALL THERE?? EVEN IF I CALLED I GUESS I WAS GOING BROKE.

TO ME WHAT IS WEIRD HE TANKS THE 3 BETS AND SNAP CALLS MY 4 BET SHOVE. IS THAT A MISTAKE ON HIS PART OR NOT AS I COULD EASY DO THAT WITH AA,KK,QQ,AK? AND WITH TT,AQ AND MAYBE 99 BUT DON'T THINK SO.

ANYWAY HOW SHOULD I HAVE PLAYED IT? COULD I REALLY FOLD TO HIS 3 BET EVEN WHEN HE TANKED?

IS IT A FOLD WHEN HE DOES NOT TANK?

ANY ADVICE PLEASE WOULD BE APPRECIATED



pokerstars Hand #142236253164: Tournament #1342800988, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (600/1200) - 2015/10/15 4:22:07 ET
Table '1342800988 115' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: OnL|Ne93 (58506 in chips)
Seat 2: Kors_7 (25232 in chips)
Seat 3: qweqewqwqq (113702 in chips)
Seat 4: cantlook (77102 in chips)
Seat 5: TeaDrinker77 (15376 in chips)
Seat 6: anirudhstar (51643 in chips)
Seat 7: VSEMDALA (35858 in chips)
Seat 8: winge_away_ (29142 in chips)
Seat 9: HERO (24335 in chips)
sts the ante 150

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt HERO [Qs Ac]
VSEMDALA: folds
winge_away_: folds
HERO: raises 1400 to 2600
OnL|Ne93: folds
Kors_7: folds
qweqewqwqq: 3BETS 4600 to 7200
cantlook: folds
TeaDrinker77: folds
anirudhstar: folds

HERO SHOVES: raises 16985 to 24185 and is all-in
qweqewqwqq: calls 16985

*** FLOP *** [Qc 3c Jd]
*** TURN *** [Qc 3c Jd] <font color='red'>2<font face="arial">♦</font></font>
*** RIVER *** [Qc 3c Jd 2d] <font color='black'>7♣</font>
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HERO: shows [Qs Ac] (a pair of Queens)
qweqewqwqq: shows [Jc Jh] (three of a kind, Jacks)
qweqewqwqq collected 51520 from pot
HERO finished the tournament in 201st place and received $6.82.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 51520 | Rake 0
Board [Qc 3c Jd 2d 7c]

Seat 3: qweqewqwqq showed [Jc Jh] and won (51520) with three of a kind, Jacks

Seat 9: HERO showed [Qs Ac] and lost with a pair of Queens

 

[neloze]

calling bad idea out of position.you had your mzone at about 8-9 that is bad plus i belive you should fold after a re-raising you from cutoff.it a fold foure sure.live to fight onother day.gl

 

[beger80]

I don't think you can take the top of his range out with the tanking, AA KK AK all are hands I have seen tank bet. the whole weak is strong idea fits in this tanking issue. what was the goal of your shove? What better hands did you hope to fold out and what worse hands did you feel would call. A call would not be the worst if you include worse aces and middling to higher pairs in his range. fold is not terrible either as his range can at best be a race with you, depends on table and tourney dynamics. your shove is polarizing and you will only be called with at best 52% to win as you will not be called with AJ or worse.

 

[anthony c]

Thinking now i was trying to fold out tt which is not worth the effort and was hoping he was weak and would just fold(Trying to bully me)bluffs.

I agree with people tanking and then raising is strong but not if your clock is ticking and my guess(read) was right as he had jj which he was thinking of just calling so i think with aa,kk,qq and ak out of his range, also have 2 blockers for aa,kk and ak i was flipping most likely and i need the chips.

Now thinking of it, with the read i had and aa,kk,qq,ak is out of his range its borderline and i am happy with the read and my thinking and my move just did not work out for me.

Yes if he only tanks its a def fold as he could have those hands.

Just my opinion and folding in that spot is def not wrong and if i had more chips maybe a fold is 100% right.

Thanks for sharing and if someone disagrees by all means your welcome to tell me and if you could explain too so we can learn as i still think it's 50-50 and maybe on the wrong side.

thank you

 

[Poker Orifice]

Thinking now i was trying to fold out tt which is not worth the effort and was hoping he was weak and would just fold(Trying to bully me)bluffs.

Villain is getting 2-to-1 on the call in this spot.... meaning ...
If he's even halfway decent he KNOWS that beforehand (he should always be calculating stack sizes... ie. if he were to 3bet & if there are short'ish' stacks (ie. 15-20bb) in LP or blinds, he should be aware of which ones he'll be pricing himself in on once he 3-bets).... in this case a 20bb stack raises... he 3-bets knowing that if HERO were to 4bai, he would be getting 2-to-1 and would not be folding pretty much EVER.
there'll be 34,685 in the pot .... and it'll cost villain 17,135 to call.

Chances of them 'trying to bully' or bluff pre in that spot would be bad.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Villain is actually getting 2.02 - to - 1 there.
He only needs 33.06% for his call to be +ev (+cEV) & he has more than a big enough stack that calling off & losing won't affect his stack utility (ie. it's not like he's raising with a 35bb stack & calling off either).

so even if he was 'bully you' (which as I said is HIGHLY unlikely imo)... and had something like 87s it is a snap call for him. So thinking you might be getting him to fold TT in a spot like this is being very optimisitic ... & kinda not realistic to be honest.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

My initial thought was that this is a fold or jam preflop situation. I thought "Flatting is the worst because you'll have 30% of your stack in preflop" which is generally not a good situation especially with a hand that likely needs to see all 5 cards. But upon further reflection, I think this might be an OK spot to try the old Stop N Go. Where you flat preflop out of position and then you jam on pretty much any flop except the very very best flops.

So if the flop is QQx or AQx you check raise jam, but any other flop you just open jam. I don't usually like the stop n Go play, but your stack size is perfect for it....your flop jam would be a pot sized bet. When he has a monster like QQ,KK,AA you lose your entire stack whether you jam preflop or stop n Go. The big advantage of the Stop N Go is if you think AK/AQ makes up a big portion of his 3betting range then you'll win a nice sized pot the times both of you miss. And you might sometimes win a pot you don't deserve if he has a hand like 99 or TT and the flop comes KJx. So the difference is that the stop N Go lets you win a few more times against the parts of his 3betting range that won't fold Preflop but are vulnerable to bad flops. So I guess the stop n go isn't always a terrible play and this would be one of the rare spots to use it.

When he 3bets you, you pretty much don't have any fold equity (as Poker Orifice eluded to). With a hand as strong as AQ vs a villain like this you don't necessarily NEED fold equity depending on what your range read is. since he is 3betting 25% AQ is probably fine to play for stacks with. But since you only have 18 hands on him....you have to discount your range read quite a bit.

So this is actually kind of an interesting hand. I think 4bet jamming with no fold equity is actually OK because of villain's stats....but it's high variance. I think folding preflop is actually OK because of stack size management and tourney considerations. and I think flatting (only if you are planning to Stop N Go) is also Ok. The tie breaker for me would be tourney situation. How deep are you, how far are you from the money. what is the average stack?