$3.30 NLHE MTT Bounty: $$3.30 NLHE MTT Bounty: Late stages MTT how much to raise on this turn?

[Figaroo2]

$3.30 NLHE MTT Bounty: $$3.30 NLHE MTT Bounty: Late stages MTT how much to raise on this turn?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/13/2.1

(poker stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, November 10, 07:30:36 ET 2014
Table 1034713324 300 (real money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 2: Player2 ( 616332 ) - VPIP: 23, PFR: 16, 3B: 10, AF: 3.5, hands: 101
Seat 3: Player3 ( 561291 ) - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 1.0, Hands: 85
Seat 4: Player4 ( 212848 ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 16, 3B: 13, AF: 0.0, Hands: 37
Seat 5: Hero ( 239134 ) - VPIP:29 , PFR: 18, 3B: 11, AG%:55, Hands: 28
Seat 6: Player6 ( 605444 ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 7.0, Hands: 63
Seat 7: Player7 ( 329281 ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AG%:33, Hands: 15
Seat 8: Player8 ( 450590 ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 1.9, Hands: 105
Seat 9: Player9 ( 141328 ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 11, AF: 1.7, Hands: 59
Player2 posts ante of [1500].
Player3 posts ante of [1500].
Player4 posts ante of [1500].
Hero posts ante of [1500].
Player6 posts ante of [1500].
Player7 posts ante of [1500].
Player8 posts ante of [1500].
Player9 posts ante of [1500].
Player6 posts small blind [6000].
Player7 posts big blind [12000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5d 6d ]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player2 folds
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Hero raises [24000]
Player6 folds
Player7 calls [12000]
** Dealing Flop ** [ As, 9d, 4d ]
Player7 checks
Hero checks ( I dont want to get check raised here)
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8d ]
Player7 bets [24000]
Hero raises ?? How much do we raise here?
Do we just want a modest raise and risk a call and a 4th diamond or to we bet large to try and take it now?

 

[thatgreekdude]

The raise screams flush and the flat is risky, if I was going for the raise i'd make it 55-60k to go

 

[WiZZiM]

I just flat and let them fire again on rivers. If he has ax hes gonna bet and likely call a river raise anyways if he has air we fold that out on the turn by raising.

 

[Everybodylovesdeuces]

Yeah and you're never getting the Ad or any AxXd to fold so just call and peel one more off. Esp if you bink the 7d. Plus your in position so you get to see what he does if another d does come.

 

[RamdeeBen]

I just flat and let them fire again on rivers. If he has ax hes gonna bet and likely call a river raise anyways if he has air we fold that out on the turn by raising.

Exactly this.

We have to think of his value/bluff hands here and what they do when we raise. All play perfectly vs us when we raise, he either re-raises with a better hand or folds his bluff unless he's the type to just bluff re-raise in this spot which I think is optimist.

Just flat call and any none diamond if he bets, depending on the size he makes we can decide if we want to re-raise small for value or just call.

 

[suby_rafael]

I am going to flat too, no need to raise here and we would hate to get shoved on and holding such a small flush.

Just flat calling and then evaluating on the river seems the best option to me.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

we need to be thinking of how to extract max value in this spot, not protection.

Don't worry about a 4th diamond peeling off...I mean yes that would suck but it only happens less than 20% of the time. (If he holds 1 big diamond he will only suck out 14% of the time and if he doesn't hold a diamond it will happen about 20% of the time and he won't beat you, but it will kill your action).

So, most of your value in this hand will come from non-diamond rivers (most rivers).

how big of a bet do you think a hand like will call on the river?

do you think if he is bluffing on this turn, that he will bluff again on the river?

if he has a hand like will he call a raise on the turn?

Depending on player tendencies, raising the turn or inducing on the river can both be good plays.

vs. a tricky bluffy player flat the turn and let him fire again on the river.

vs. a loose passive player who gets married to top pair and draws, raise on the turn.

since you only have 28 hands on him, and he doesn't seem super aggro I might make a small raise on this turn, to about 60,000. That is based mostly on population tendencies of getting married to top pair type hands.

 

[Figaroo2]

+1 for MissJacki
At last someone who thinks a raise is a good idea....surely we are looking to stack this player here if he has an ace and getting a raise in now before any cooler arrives is a must to get him near pot committed surely...!!?

 

[pkr_man14]

There's not much you can do, because paying is kind of risky since he made a small bet. If you reraise him you will be showing your cards to him, your flush will be obvious. The problem here is that you didn't make the cbet con the flop, representing the ace. You feared to face a reraise on the flop and now you won't take a lot of value from your hand. With the cbet on the flop your flush is less evident. Also, if you are only going to cbet when you have the ace... it like you are showing your cards to the other player. You have to bet in thes spots wether you have or not the ace, in this way, you will easily put all you chips in the middle when you hit the flush, fold or stop betting when you don't hit, and you also will get called easier in these flop when you hit the ace.
NEXT TIME MAKE THE CBET ON THE FLOP.