$3.30 NLHE Deep Stacked: Middle Set vs All in raise on flop

[brendonius]

$3.30 NL HE Deep Stacked: Middle Set vs All in raise on flop

Just looking for some direction with this. I'm chip leader in this $3.00+0.30 freezeout. There were around 264 people with the top 27 getting paid. There were about 36 people left at this point.

Villian was 27/17/0.5 about 75 hands. Turned up with garbage lots of time.

Stacks:
* BTN with 18790
* SB with 25359
* BB with 30695
* UTG with 8005
* UTG+1 with 13450
* Hero with 39268
* MP2 with 16717
* MP3 with 15300
* CO with 11101

Blinds:
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to MP1:T♣ T♦
* * Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero raises to 2,000
* * 4 players fold.
* * SB raises to 6,500
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero calls [4,500]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: 13500
Flop:
* * 5♥ A♥ 10♠
* * SB bets [18,809, and is all in]
* * Hero...?


Looking back on it now, I realize that he was basically pot committed with his preflop raise. With so close to the money to go, is this a profitable call?

 

[mecoble]

u have to call there, if he has aa oh well u still have some chips left, u shouldnt have to think about it, if you start playing where u are folding sets bc its close to the money u will never win a tourney

 

[Jillychemung]

I'd be tempted to 4-bet shove this preflop based on SB stack size and the expectation that the SB will shove just about any flop. As played I fist-pump call since the likelyhood of SB having AA is small.

 

[brendonius]

Plugging it into pokerstove, I see that I'm at least an 85% favourite here against even a tight re-raising range..

 

[Jillychemung]

On second thought, preflop.

A 27/17 with no aggression, what would their 3-bet range be to commit 1/4 of their stack? Any wider than 99+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ ? If not then preflop you are 52.5-47.5 behind. It would help to know what your stats were at this point.

There is no question that you call the shove on the flop. The only question really is do you fold/call/shove against the 3-bet preflop.

 

[jordanbillie]

I am NEVER folding here. Always play to win, not just to cash. If he has the aces you still are in decent shape, not crippled by any means. Call call call!

 

[Poker Orifice]

Because of your read on this player, I think the play was good and would be a snapcall.
In many circumstances I would've folded the TT preflop once I was 3-bet by SB here & in an amount that he's pretty much begging for a call. Also, 3-betting a preflop raise in SB is often AA KK for many players (but as you mentioned, this player wasn't 'most' players). Just because he's uber-aggro though, doesn't mean he isn't capable of waking up with a real hand here. Is he really still going to go insane just off the bubble here? What are we putting him on here?

 

[Poker Orifice]

Sorry... 3-bet size was pretty norm (although most players are going to go a bit more than 3.5x when in SB).
I'm pretty sure I would've laid it down preflop,.. but that's just me.

 

[Makwa]

I can't see another way to play it. If short stacked (you werent I take it) I would have pushed on the reraise, but thats about it. No reason to fold the reraise, you still have lots left and in position.

 

[diamond_06_06]

With so close to the money to go, is this a profitable call?

Very profitable call on the flop here. You are ahead of all of his range except for one hand. In my opinion it is an insta-call.

 

[brendonius]

Thanks for the words guys, all in all, I think the chances of him having aces was so slim that it is profitable? Thats what I got from most of this.

He turned up pocket aces of course, and won the hand with quads. Quite the blow to my chip lead.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stacks:
* BTN with 18790
* SB with 25359
* BB with 30695
* UTG with 8005
* UTG+1 with 13450
* Hero with 39268
* MP2 with 16717
* MP3 with 15300
* CO with 11101

Blinds:
Site: Full Tilt Poker
* * Dealt to MP1:T♣ T♦
* * Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * Hero raises to 2,000
* * 4 players fold.
* * SB raises to 6,500
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero calls [4,500]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: 13500
Flop:
* * 5♥ A♥ 10♠
* * SB bets [18,809, and is all in]
* * Hero calls [18,809]
* * SB shows :
* * A♣ A♦ Hero shows :
* * 10♣ 10♦
* * Potsize: 32327
Turn:
* * A♠
* * Potsize: 32327
River:
* * K♦
* * SB shows four of a kind, Aces
* * Hero shows a full house, Tens full of Aces
* * SB wins the pot (51,568) with four of a kind, Aces

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

 

[CrossCrucificio]

You seem to know the nature of the villain. Seems pretty loose, thats why he re-raised preflop. I would guess he doesn't have pocket Aces. At the most Ace high. Hmmm, maybe even just KQ suited. Anyway, you're deepstack and you can afford to make this call. You must make this call. If he sucks out, you will still have this. Well, I just caught on to the rest of your post, and well he has pocket Aces. It amazes me he didn't even slow play his top set. Well maybe he was thinking of pushing you off a possible flush draw. But anyway, even though he did have top set, you need to always have that killer instinct, now if this all-in puts you into an elmimination bubble boy predicament, then it's a different story.

 

[JonasBluffer]

Wow quad aces!!!
I still think that is profitable go all in win with a set of tens at that flop man... you was the chip leader, even losing you have some chips!

 

[I_B_Freaky]

Based on your statement... "Villian was 27/17/0.5 about 75 hands. Turned up with garbage lots of time." How do you not call or push? This time he had a hand. That is what happens when you play guys like that. Most of the time he has AK or something and you are a huge fav.

 

[baudib1]

Not only is it unlikely he has AA, it is extremely unusual for anyone to overbet the pot with the nuts. He has AK, and underpair that is annoyed an A flopped, or a flush draw like 99.9% of the time. I'm stunned he had AA frankly.

 

[The Shrog]

Not only is it unlikely he has AA, it is extremely unusual for anyone to overbet the pot with the nuts. He has AK, and underpair that is annoyed an A flopped, or a flush draw like 99.9% of the time. I'm stunned he had AA frankly.

Exactly this.

 

[left52side]

I eould just guess at the info flush draw,maybe A/good kicker.
you have flopped the set,with the chance to eliminate a player and you have the chip lead.
I would say you had to call .

 

[kcirjr]

I dont know what you are questioning. If he has pocket aces here thats f'd up that tehy do that too you but you have to think you have his ak dominated. So Get his chips and getr done

 

[aznman08]

its pretty much bad cards. with your villan stats its very hard to put him on A-A or even A-K

 

[Snowmobiler]

I almost never laying down 2nd set after the flop in a tourney that i am the chip leader.I would think that most who can lay that down fold the 10s pre flop.

 

[robert_wrath]

There's only 1 solid hand to beat you here. Calling is by far the obvious move. A set wouldn't play a hand this fast. Even if he is a loose/aggressive player, he may bet anywhere from 40 - 70 percent of the pot to suck you in. On the turn he would push with his set of Aces. So without a shadow of a doubt, calling is the prominent action.