$3.3 NLHE MTT Bounty: Fold or call?

[1sunchin]

#1

pokerstars, $2.94 + $0.36 - Hold'em No Limit - 40/80 (12 ante) - 8 players

Edouardo067 (UTG): 3,662 (46 bb)
lejaon27 (UTG+1): 3,365 (42 bb)
PeuVieir@ (MP): 5,014 (63 bb)
1numismat (MP+1): 5,874 (73 bb)
Dih-sabotage (CO): 4,352 (54 bb)
crafty bee (BU): 9,062 (113 bb)
lunopad (SB): 3,457 (43 bb)
rsmatrosrs (BB): 5,214 (65 bb)

Pre-Flop: (216) Hero (1numismat) is MP+1 with J♥ J♠
2 players fold, PeuVieir@ (MP) raises to 160, 1numismat (MP+1) calls 160, 3 players fold, rsmatrosrs (BB) 3-bets to 880, PeuVieir@ (MP) 4-bets to 5,002 (all-in), 1numismat (MP+1) - ?

 

[finaltable1]

Call ofc

 

[kozong]

without info, this early of a stage, after 4b shove from original raiser im folding
we have plenty of time catching better spot with 71 bb left

 

[venycyos]

I would very sadly fold, but unfortunately it is fold.

 

[1sunchin]

Call ofc

without info, this early of a stage, after 4b shove from original raiser im folding
we have plenty of time catching better spot with 71 bb left

I would very sadly fold, but unfortunately it is fold.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1250TZv3D

 

[eetenor]

#1

PokerStars, $2.94 + $0.36 - Hold'em No Limit - 40/80 (12 ante) - 8 players

Edouardo067 (UTG): 3,662 (46 bb)
lejaon27 (UTG+1): 3,365 (42 bb)
PeuVieir@ (MP): 5,014 (63 bb)
1numismat (MP+1): 5,874 (73 bb)
Dih-sabotage (CO): 4,352 (54 bb)
crafty bee (BU): 9,062 (113 bb)
lunopad (SB): 3,457 (43 bb)
rsmatrosrs (BB): 5,214 (65 bb)

Pre-Flop: (216) Hero (1numismat) is MP+1 with J♥ J♠
2 players fold, PeuVieir@ (MP) raises to 160, 1numismat (MP+1) calls 160, 3 players fold, rsmatrosrs (BB) 3-bets to 880, PeuVieir@ (MP) 4-bets to 5,002 (all-in), 1numismat (MP+1) - ?

View attachment 301090

Thank you for posting

We want to use data points to make these decisions when we can. By taking the time to study the process now we can make better decisions in game.

So what data do you have available to you at this point?
Player tendencies? Player pool tendencies? Bet sizing tells?

The questions we ask our self is why those actions? What range of hands take those actions?

BB V has 65 bb but you cover makes a 5x raise why? No need to gamble when they have 65 bb so why such a big raise OOP?

MP V min raises 62 bb stack then shoves why? BB covers them which means they cannot win a bounty why ISO shove with a weak hand? Do they expect folds? Do they min raise shove TT-22 vs 2 players? If yes why?

If we study this thought process off table it makes it easier to make in game decisions.

The key for me in this hand is that the shove comes from a player that cannot win a bounty but has 62BB not 40 or less. Vs standard players this is always a strong hand which is trouble for us. Plus the BB has indicated they want to play for stacks.

So is MP V standard or overly aggressive? Is the BB raise folding getting over 2 to 1?

Hope this helps

 

[eetenor]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1250TZv3D

Ok more data great.

So the questions we want to ask now is did the MP V think that everyone would fold to a shove as you all did. If that is possible then they might shove AK AQs TT 99 88 77
But why shove AA why not 3 bet large why shove KK?

So we can now build a range estimate of QQ-88 AK AQ any bluffs? A5s KQs
We then input that into Equilab and see what equity we have vs that range.

The result is JJ has 60% vs that range. A clear call with a bounty up for grabs and the chance to win more bounties by having a large stack.

We would then change the range to see how tight MP would have to be for us to fold.
That is a good exercise to do with Equilab.



Hope this helps

 

[rock0001]

tough spot but i will most likely make a call because in bounty tournaments players tend to be more aggresive and also you can eliminate 2 players and recover your initial buy in... folding isnt bad either but i think jacks may be just good enough to take the risk.

 

[frank174]

with no info on the player at this stage its a fold ,but if you have info from either your own notes or from your hud could very well be a call,lets face it who shoves aces at this stage then again do you want to get into a flipping situation so early,

 

[1sunchin]

with no info on the player at this stage its a fold ,but if you have info from either your own notes or from your hud could very well be a call,lets face it who shoves aces at this stage then again do you want to get into a flipping situation so early,

I'm fold cause I haven't no info about villains.

 

[fundiver199]

Maybe it leans a little more towards a call, because its a PKO, and we have both opponents covered, so we can win their bounties. But I think, folding is fine as well. A 4-bet jamming range this deep is often something like QQ+, AK, and JJ is not in great shape against that range. I also think, we should consider 3-betting rather than just flatting the initial open.

 

[blef121]

maybe it's stupid but I wouldn't fold I think this is the card with which if I lost I wouldn't worry