$3.3 NL HE MTT: Bad runout for top set

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fundiver199

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Game is a 3.3$ "Big" MTT on pokerstars. Late registration has closed but still far from the money. Starting chips is 5.000. No info on the opponent other than the fact, I have played less than 30 hands with him. Do you call down here?

PokerStars, $2.94 + $0.36 - Hold'em No Limit - 150/300 (40 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 17,173 (57 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 14,488 (48 bb)
MP: 17,853 (60 bb)
MP+1: 6,178 (21 bb)
CO: 5,796 (19 bb)
BU: 13,562 (45 bb)
SB: 6,304 (21 bb)
BB: 27,102 (90 bb)

Pre-Flop: (770) Hero is UTG+1 with K♥ K♦
1 fold, Hero raises to 750, 3 players fold, BTN calls 750, 2 players fold

Flop: (2,270) 5♠ 7♥ K♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 908, BTN calls 908

Turn: (4,086) 8♥ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,452, BTN calls 2,452

River: (8,990) 9♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 9,412 (all-in), Hero?
 
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300HPGOD

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Pre and and the flop I think are standard , even though I hate to use that word with poker. I really like the sizing you picked on the flop since it is small enough to induce some floats that might not float at say 60% or so but also not so small that it an eyebrow raiser.

On the turn I think we have to lead here due to the board getting wetter and if villain has nothing at this point we arent getting anything more anyway. Also no reason for them to see a free card so I like the bet and like the sizing again for what I just wrote. If they have nothing then they are folding to 35-40% sizing here but if they do have a little something or a draw they want to get sticky with then your uptick in sizing extracts that value from them. Good bet here imo.

On the river is where some would disagree with me and thats good for discussion but I would be checking this river almost, if not, 100% of the time no matter what card comes. Without knowing anything about the villain we dont know if they are a station or not so I would put a general read on them that most players dont like calling a triple barrel without a pretty good hand. A lot of those pretty good hands beat us here with the only exception that I think would call a triple here that we beat is two pair (which can exist here like 98 or 87). With the thought process that villain wont often call a triple barrel when I am ahead here I like checking to try to induce a bluff. We do get bet at which is what we want and the sizing in polarizing which at this stack depth is fine to me since we started 45 BBs effective and that is a small enough stack for me to be willing to get all in by the end with top set. The river also lends itself to bluffs since its such a scare card completing the flush and 4 to a gutter so I would have my mind made up here before I checked river that any sizing I face I would at least be calling. I would then follow through when faced with this bet and make the call. We could be beat, yes, but at this stack depth Im not looking to fold top set especially when there is a scary river that opens the door for villain to think he can bluff at it.
 
rock0001

rock0001

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tough situation but i think you should consider folding because villain can have lots of hands that beat your set like any 6, j10 or a flush so while your hand is still strong i think villain has 66 or a6 so folding might be the best choice here but calling isnt bad either because villain could also have 55 or 77 so any decision you make is reasonable in this spot.
 
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fundiver199

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Thanks for the comments. I had actually decided to fold to the river jam, because I was not in the mood to essentially bust right now trying to catch a bluff. But then I misclicked and called instead, which turned out to be a lucky mistake. I think, 300HPGOD is spot on in his analysis, and seeing this showdown makes me wonder, how often I have been bluffed in similar situations in the past :)

 
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gustav197poker

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Thanks for the comments. I had actually decided to fold to the river jam, because I was not in the mood to essentially bust right now trying to catch a bluff. But then I misclicked and called instead, which turned out to be a lucky mistake. I think, 300HPGOD is spot on in his analysis, and seeing this showdown makes me wonder, how often I have been bluffed in similar situations in the past :)

Honestly I would have folded this hand on the river, but I play more live cash games, so my opinion probably doesn't carry enough weight here.
 
Andyreas

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I think, 300HPGOD is spot on in his analysis, and seeing this showdown makes me wonder, how often I have been bluffed in similar situations in the past :)
I agree to both points! I often wonder the same.

But it's actually hard to risk most of the stack for a bluff catch and some people might be so loose to call two streets with SD or FD. 😅

But that's what poker is about, isn't it?
 
ADRI7HO

ADRI7HO

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For me, this is an absolute call. I think the opponent will have a bluff hand more often than a stronger hand. 🤓
If he has 6,6 or A,6 or runner run flush in his hand, then bad luck and a bad game from him.
 
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fundiver199

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Honestly I would have folded this hand on the river, but I play more live cash games, so my opinion probably doesn't carry enough weight here.
There could easily be some differences in player pool tendencies. I often watch Bart Hansson from Crushlivepoker, and he keep on harping about, how low stakes (up to $2/$5) live cash players dont bluff enough on the river. So something like this, where a bad pair is turned into a bluff on a scary runout, might be more common online. Also as I wrote, when I revealed the results, I actually wanted to fold but misclicked. Which is of course also something, that wont really happen in live poker :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
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