$3.25 NLHE STT Turbo: Difficult Bubble decision with TJs

[ben_rhyno]

$3.25 NL HE STT Turbo: Difficult Bubble decision with TJs

pokerstars Game #47385579550: Tournament #295958059, $3.00+$0.25 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2010/07/28 15:19:12 UTC [2010/07/28 11:19:12 ET]
Table '295958059 1' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: tomuchwins (1547 in chips)
Seat 3: $Shmatov$ (5610 in chips)
Seat 4: ben-rhyno (1843 in chips)
tomuchwins: posts the ante 25
$Shmatov$: posts the ante 25
ben-rhyno: posts the ante 25
$Shmatov$: posts small blind 100
ben-rhyno: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ben-rhyno [Ts Js]
tomuchwins: raises 1322 to 1522 and is all-in
$Shmatov$: folds
ben-rhyno:


What the hell do I here with 9BBs?
Am I ever calling here?
Can someone help me with the maths of it aswell in their explanation of fold or call?
Thanks

 

[WiZZiM]

Your effectively calling for ~7BB's.

This is highly dependant on reads, is the guy shoving a loose range? 40+% or a tight range? 20-%

Without this info, i'll assume he is a bad player, and bad players in this spot are probably shoving Ax, decent BW, stuff like that, so ~30%. Against this range, our hand doesnt do well enough to make this call. Plus we have to think about ICM. I'm not a huge math guy, i have spent a long time reviewing situations, and i intuitively can work out if a call/shove is good/bad.

I can post some SNG Wizard anaylsis. But apart from that, i'm probably not the best person to be talking about hand vs hand equities and stuff like that ( I'll leave that to C9).

So, my general answer is this, if he's shoving super wide, we can make the call, if not, then it's a pretty easy fold. I don't think many people are going to be ever shoving into the big stack with a really wide range here. And folding in spots like these can never be a huge mistake.

 

[ben_rhyno]

hes been shoving stuff like Ace rag, QT, K9 small pairs etc. I still think this could be a fold given what he's shown up with so far?

 

[Rldetheflop]

for me personally if I am gonna be in a pot for all or most of my chips with J10 I would prefer to be the shover not the caller.

 

[WiZZiM]

Yeah, seems to be a pretty easy fold, given reads. He obviously won't be getting carried away in this spot.

 

[OzExorcist]

Doesn't sound like we're doing well against his range, I'm folding this.