$.25 NLHE MTT: Could the villain call here?

[tzuriel]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

Blinds were 5K 10K

Raised PF and got 2 callers. We flop the nuts so my plan is to check/call every street until the river and then check raise, He checks behind on the river because he must be suspicious at this point. He's a pretty tight player (VPIP 25 after 77 hands) so the fact that he is leading makes me think he might have a flush also.

Do you bet the river here for value? I guess it couldn't hurt since I had the stone cold nuts by that point. But I was planning a check raise here and it just didn't work out. I was a little surprised that he was still leading the turn after I saw his hand. Now I know why he checked behind on the river!

Thoughts?

NL Holdem $0.25+$0.02 (10000.00BB)
BTN ($304568)
SB ($358475)
BB ($279461)
HERO ($312698)
CO ($484421)

Dealt to Hero: A♣ J♣

HERO Raises To $26000, CO Calls $25000, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $15000

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.98 effective]
Flop ($85000): 6♣ 2♣ T♣
BB Checks, HERO Checks, CO Bets $47500 (Rem. Stack: $410921), BB Folds, HERO Calls $47500 (Rem. Stack: $239198)

Turn ($180000): 6♣ 2♣ T♣ 3♥
HERO Checks, CO Bets $45000 (Rem. Stack: $365921), HERO Calls $45000 (Rem. Stack: $194198)

River ($270000): 6♣ 2♣ T♣ 3♥ 7♠
HERO Checks, CO Checks

Spoiler

CO shows: K♠ T♠

HERO wins: $270000

 

[Transitley]

Hello tzuriel,

I'm not great so trying to analyse some hands to improve my own game.

In this case, think I'd be check raising the turn as by this stage he has hopefully caught something or if he has Kc or Qc (or both???) in his hand, then some chips are going in I reckon. By the river, any draws he has have bombed out so you have to lead in case he does have top pair or the like - he is not going to bet any missed draws - I guess best case would be he has trips he likes

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre and flop are fine, very good check call imo on the flop although against certain opponents you can lead there and others may think you would never lead out a made flush there so that one can go either way as to C bet or check call. The turn is where you need to make a decision though since we want to be playing for stacks here. I like initially checking as you did but then you have to take a pick of how you want to get the chips in. The two options are check raise or just call and lead river. I can see both ways but I think check calling the turn and leading river (especially if we are lucky enough for a 4th club not to come on the river) looks weaker to the villain. Raise pre, check call flop and then check raise turn looks pretty strong but calling two streets and then jamming river could be seen as a bluff with A clubs x hand.

When you check the river there will be many villains that are going to check behind with any one pair hand. They should not (doesnt mean they wont but shouldnt) try to be getting 3 streets here from any one pair hand. Therefore when you check the river as played you are letting them get away from a hand too easy. They might not call your jam with a one pair hand but thats fine. From our perspective we need to try to see if they will make a crying call with something. More likely imo they make a crying call here then they bet when checked to.

 

[fundiver199]

It is sometimes a bit difficult to get paid, when we flop the nut flush, because we block some of the hands, that people will continue with. Also monotone boards are very hit or miss, so a lot of hands just will not put chips in the pot, no matter what we do. That being said you were the preflop raiser in this hand, and I dont see any compelling reason to give up the betting lead.

Sure you underrepresent your hand that way, but you are out of position to CO, and that makes it very awkward to get the initiative back later. And if you continue to just check-call, as you did, you allow CO to determine the size of the pot potentially leaving chips on the table. So I would just play this hand in a really simple way and go bet, bet, jam. I expect, that his exact hand would at least have called twice, and since I would size my turn bet larger, than he did, that would already allow me to win a bigger pot.

On the river he might fold his top pair to a jam, but its also possible, he would make a big hero call putting you on a busted club draw perhaps. And why not at least give him the chance to make that hero call? If he fold, it will also create a nagging feeling, that maybe you bluffed him, which can be good for future dynamics. By being aggressive you make yourself much more difficult to play against than by being passive.

 

[kkonicke]

I'll agree with fundiver but want to add one tidbit. Be prepared to bet and have everyone fold a lot. It's pretty darn tough for anyone to have anything on this flop. KT is one of the better hands for you to see, or k or q high flush draw. Once in a while you'll run into a set or a k high flush and in those cases all the chips are probably getting in no matter how you play it.

All that said, bet bet jam is probably the best play. I can understand checking one street and hoping a worse flush draw gets home or an overcard hits, but in every case I'd be firing heavy on the turn to be able to jam river. In this case, I might even lead turn after check calling flop because I wouldn't want to risk a check back.

 

[fundiver199]

In this case, I might even lead turn after check calling flop because I wouldn't want to risk a check back.

If I was going to play this hand in a more tricky way, I would check-call flop and turn and then donk jam river. There was around a 75% pot sized bet left, and by taking such a line we can make it look like, we were busting out on a 1-card club draw, and now we want to take it away. I can definitely see a hand like KT get sticky and give us action to that line. For me the biggest mistake in this hand is the river check. When he size down on the turn and bet less, than he did on the flop, it quite face up as a medium strong hand losing confidence. So its not exactly surpricing, he checked back the river. I would also not want to check-jam the turn, because I think, it looks very strong, and he is just going to snap fold a hand, which is drawing dead.

 

[tzuriel]

Thanks for the replies everyone. I will tuck these away in my arsenal!

 

[Gusborgs22]

You could donk bet the river for value or donk bet small to induce a semi-bluff.
When he slows down on the turn probally he got scared (sometimes he are strong but slowplaying, like quads, but its very unlikly.). If he are very strong he'll shove on your bet and you will call anyway. If he are scared he can turn into a bluff or just call a small bet, so you make profit with both. I think its pretty hard for he to hero call the donk jam, he are going to turn into a bluff/ call the small/middle bet more often).
And he are going to check back a lot since he was slowing down (he started betting 50-60% pot on the flop to 20-25% on the river).
So, for me the ideal is a small / middle bet on the river

 

[Momo9292]

I highly prefer donking for large sizes in these situations for multiple reasons. I doubt any 2 pair/set/smaller flush are going to fold to any sizing on the river after the flush doesn't come in, also the opponent has shown weakness with a small bet on the turn, and may interpret your large sizing as a way to steal the pot. Also another point, we know that he was not drawing to the nuts, or holding a hand like QJcc KJcc 10Jcc since we are holding the Jc which leaves him with less made/drawing flushes, so the majority of the time he is going to have an easy checkback on the river. The hand was played fine, but I definitely think a river jam would of been the best in this spot! Generally at super micro stakes people are just awful and don't fold top pairs in general.

Good luck on the tables!!