$235 NLHE Deep Stacked: Steal attempt gets called, bottom pair with flush draw = river dillema

[Weregoat]

$235 NL HE Deep Stacked: Steal attempt gets called, bottom pair with flush draw = river dillema

I'm the chip leader at the final table of this event, and this is one of the hands I feel I played incorrectly.

I'm sitting around 1.4m chips, and villian has about 1m in chips, the game is 5-handed, I'm in the button with 5d7d. Button is in the BB. He has been a very solid player, and puts a lot of thought into his decisions. He doesn't seem to be the person who would call me down light, which is why his check/calling really throws me off.

Blinds 15k/30k, ante 10k. (IIRC)

Preflop folded around to me on the button.
I raise to 100k, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop comes
5s8dTd
Perfect, I think. I've got 9 cards to make a flush, and another 5 to make two pair/trips.

Villian checks.
I bet 120k.
Villain calls.

Turn comes 4c. Gives me an inside straight draw.

Villain checks.
I bet 240k.
Villain calls. (Bet too small!?)

River comes Jh.
Villain checks.
Hero: ???

A few thoughts cross my mind, either he has a weak hand and has me figured for the draw, or he was also on a draw. If he was on a better flush draw, then I'm likely still ahead unless he has the Jd. If he was on a straight draw (9-7) being the most likely likely, then the lack of value bet here is tricky, and I cut my losses by checking back.

If he has a weak ten or an eight, a proper bet can make him fold.

My point of reference for this hand was the day prior when I flopped the nut FH OOP against a very aggressive opponent and check/called him on the flop turn and river to double up. (Woo-hoo, Johnny Chan'd him!) And I'm afraid he might have a hand where he'll raise me here, so I think bet/folding is my best bet.

But please, enlighten me, oh tournament players.

(And if my line just flat out sucks, tell me please. This is my first final table at these stakes and if I played it wrong I'm looking to learn to correct my mistakes.)

 

[Zybomb]

I'd raise much less preflop unless blinds were defending super light. Generally at this point in a tournament 2.5xing it accomplishes the same thing as 3xing or 3.25xing (as in no hands that fold for 3x will call for 2.5x), but saves us money when we get 3 bet. Sometimes this isn't the case and larger PFRs are necessary, but if that's so, it should have been noted.

As played, there's 250k in the pot on the flop. We flop bottom pair and a flush draw- a big hand, but not particularly strong at the moment. Bet much more. This less than half the pot crap will never fold out any pairs, although it can be argued that larger bets might not either. I'd probably bet closer to the 175k range (70% or so of the pot).

As played, When he check calls the 120k, he could be on a draw or could have a pair. It's unlikely he's floating you OOP esp given the 'solid' read. The turn does complete 76, but also blanks other diamonds and 97/J9. He checks again. We need to bet big. We want to (and will) fold out larger flush draws, straight draws and 8s almost always, and possibly fold out the lower kicker Ts as well if we put him to a decision for a large chunk/all of his chips. Had we bet 175k as I wanted to on the flop, there'd be 600k in the middle with 725k left in opponents stack. If this were the case I'd slight overbet shove, expecting to pick up the pot a lot of the time and having tons of outs if we are called down. Since we didn't bet the 175k tho and instead bet 120k there's now 490k in the middle and villain has 780k behind. I'd probably bet in the 350k neighborhood (close to 75% pot) in attempt to fold out the hands mentioned earlier. The 240k doesn't really do much for us except blow up the pot if we hit (and i guess extract value out of draws since it's too cheap to fold), but as far as folding out some hands that currently beat us (8s etc) it probably won't happen. If we're gunna half pot it here, I'd almost prefer checking and hoping to improve.

As played we brick everything on the river. There's now 970k in the middle and villain has 560k left. We have to just give up at this point IMO. Our 3rd barrell will look kind of weird, since 97 gets there, 76 is there, J9 hit top pair, the board is connected etc, that even if he doesn't have one of these hands (which will obv snap) he may not get off Tx here since our triple barrell looks kinda weird since a lot of straights came and 2 pairs are out there. Bet folding is impossible since any bet we'd make would put him all in... so yea as played I'd just give up and throw up in my mouth when he scoops with 87 and bang my head repeatly for not shoving.

 

[Weregoat]

86. Was so mad he called me down, but as you pointed out, I didn't bet enough.

Something to think about, thanks Zybomb.

 

[bubonicplay]

Yeah easy check back on river as played but betting bigger on flop/shipping turn seems a lot better on this board. We basically have the nuts and want to get as much money in as possible before the action killers come or we end up with 0 equity against his range.

 

[Weregoat]

Yeah easy check back on river as played but betting bigger on flop/shipping turn seems a lot better on this board. We basically have the nuts and want to get as much money in as possible before the action killers come or we end up with 0 equity against his range.

Agreed.

 

[jaded848]

Yeah easy check back on river as played but betting bigger on flop/shipping turn seems a lot better on this board. We basically have the nuts and want to get as much money in as possible before the action killers come or we end up with 0 equity against his range.

I agree with the shove on the turn, but I wouldn't say we "basically have the nuts." Lots of hands still beat us, such as mid PPs, etc

 

[Zybomb]

Lots of hands still beat us, such as mid PPs, etc

He meant we're basically a coin toss against most hands that beat us, so we should be applying maximum pressure to increase our fold equity, and we have a 50/50 (w 2 cards to go at least) to fall back on if called a lot of the time

 

[jaded848]

He meant we're basically a coin toss against most hands that beat us, so we should be applying maximum pressure to increase our fold equity, and we have a 50/50 (w 2 cards to go at least) to fall back on if called a lot of the time

Gotcha. I notice you said earlier that a triple barrel "would look weird." Is this because any of the hands that hit us on the flop would be too scary to bet on a third street, especially when we have a chance to check and end the action?

 

[Zybomb]

Gotcha. I notice you said earlier that a triple barrel "would look weird." Is this because any of the hands that hit us on the flop would be too scary to bet on a third street, especially when we have a chance to check and end the action?

For the most part yea, especially bc of what came on the turn and river. 76 and 97 both got there straights, J9 rivered top pair and several one pair hands could have become 2 pairs on this connected board. Flush draws whiffed and obv can't call a shove. So our range is gunna have a lot of whiffed flush draws or QQ+ hands if we fire a 3rd shell (and it can be thought by villain that QQ-AA may slow down some of the time on the river also) which may lead to a call down by villain....particularly with 3:1 on his call