$225 NLHE MTT: Call down 3 barrels OOP vs. LAG with 2nd pair?

[Jacki Burkhart]

This is a live $225 NLHE MTT. Starting stacks 10,000 I have about 12,000 and blinds are 100/200/25 ante.

The Button is a LAG wild card. He is playing literally 80% of hands. He limps 50% of them and he raises 50% of them. He almost never 3bets or 4bets. He is very loose kinda passive preflop and very aggressive post flop.

because he plays so many hands I have a really good line on his play. He likes to bet bet bet. with it and without it. But he has a bet sizing tell. When he is bluffing or semi-bluffing, or just has a marginal made hand his bet sizes are reasonable for the size of the pot. Usually 50-66% of the pot. But when he has a strong hand he bets the full pot, or overbets the pot and he's just hoping people will get sick of his aggression and call him down when he has a monster. And so far, it's been working for him people are calling him light when he has a monster and so his stack is about 25,000.

OK, so it folds around to his Button and he limps for 200. SB limps and I look down at and I check my option.

the pot contains 825 and the flop comes

SB checks. I check. Button leads out for 500.

SB folds. I call.

Pot contains 1,825 and the turn is the

I check. Button bets 1,000. My thinking here is that he wouldn't open limp his button with an ace, he would raise. If he had a monster like any 5 he would now make one of his characteristically large bets. He probably has nothing or a T at best. I will chop with any T unless he pairs his kicker on the river but most likely I've got him. I want to give him a chance to bluff 1 more time while simultaneously pot controlling in the times I'm wrong. So I elect to just flat.

Pot contains 3,825.

River is the I check. He bets 2,000.

Call it off? What do we think of my weak line in general?

 

[WiZZiM]

Like the thought process and everything above here, he has like 6 outs at best usually so if we're ahead on the flop we are likely to be ahead on the turn. Sometimes he will show up with hands here but that's ok. wp

 

[Ambur]

As played: wp if hero called river (but i do not like it overall)! I mean really what he could possibly have here or what villaine is representing here and can we bluf his higher Tx out on river? Since villaine river bet size is somehow semi-weak, he might have peace of flop, but villaine is not sure where he is on river that point, that can be one possibility why villaine made semi-weak half-hard river "value bet"! imo - This river sizing is not for value from his part, it could be easyly protection bet or last attemt to bluf with air (not likely). imo Villaine could possible assume you would call the river. imo - really which kind of hero range could passively call until river and then fold for half pot size bet?? - it does not make any sense!

I think i would take pot control on turn (i am still OOP and need to balance somehow+charge possible semi-value range of villaine). But if hero decided to be passive on turn the villaine range could be anything on river and river card is definetly where villaine will possible bounce with anything, since it does not complete any miracle draws etc. Basically you have to (at least) call it down as played! But i do not like to be overall calling station here! imo

Interesting question would be - would you still call if villaine made pot size river bet?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

..... I mean really what he could possibly have here or what villaine is representing here and can we bluf his higher Tx out on river? ......


.......Interesting question would be - would you still call if villaine made pot size river bet?

to answer these questions: the only "value" hands he could have would be a random ace, any ten or a 5. It's possible but unlikely that he holds an Ace or 5, so his most likely "value" holding is a T. It is also extremely likely that he has air. I would estimate he is value betting maybe 30% of the time here and bluffing 70% of the time based on how I've seen him play so many of his hands so far.

If he made a pot sized river bet, then as gross as it would be, I think I'd have to find a fold. Because his bet size tell is very reliable and so I would probably tank fold to a pot sized river bet.

But in this particular situation I did make the call. I think it's criminal to induce a bluff and then fold, so I of course called.

any guesses as to what he was holding?

 

[Ambur]

I think river might helped his Tx or he has complete air

But still i want to bounce turn

I think he might have 23o

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I think river might helped his Tx or he has complete air

But still i want to bounce turn

I think he might have 23o

I'll give the spoiler in a day or so. Wanna see if I get any other replies. It's not too exciting though.

 

[WiZZiM]

K8

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

To those who guessed "air". You are right. He had 87o.

 

[PBG789]

Bit late to the party on this one but for what its worth hero has perfect read on the villain and this makes the passive check calling all the way the optimal play against this particular villain.