$20 NLHE STT Turbo: $$20 NLHE STT Turbo: ICM consideration- call or shove?

[StealTheButton]

I took a screenshot- but it is corrupted or something. Single table tourney- 3 players left and blinds are 100/200 and I don't remember if antes were in effect. Button has 600 chips left, Small blind has 4700 chips and I have 3700 chips (approx.)

Button folds and small blind minimum raises to 400 and I look down at JJ. Button is unknown but pretty lousy, and small blind seems to be a solid player. JJ is super strong hand and you can argue that it is too strong to flat the raise. However, the other player has one foot out of the tourney and is in the bb next. What is your move? Even if I KNOW for a fact that villain has A8 and may very well call my shove- do I want to?

 

[Gerb]

If he calls your shove and you win, you’re in great shape to win it all. The pay jump from 2nd to 1st is probably a big enough justification to take your chances and end up losing sometimes in this spot. The times you get called and win probably outweigh the lost potential $ you gave up from not waiting for the small stack to bust, given the pay jump to first is bigger than 3rd to 2nd, and also the quality of your hand.
Also also, if small stack happens to double up, whole new game and you’ve missed a chance to get in a good spot anyway.
Playing passive on the proper money bubble is different than playing passive in this spot with these stacks and waiting for a bust.
Maybe if big stack is way bigger and if you win it’s still even stacks, then maybe? But given he’d be left with 1000 to your 7500, gotta go for it.
No math whatsoever to back this up, just my two cents.

 

[eetenor]

I took a screenshot- but it is corrupted or something. Single table tourney- 3 players left and blinds are 100/200 and I don't remember if antes were in effect. Button has 600 chips left, Small blind has 4700 chips and I have 3700 chips (approx.)

Button folds and small blind minimum raises to 400 and I look down at JJ. Button is unknown but pretty lousy, and small blind seems to be a solid player. JJ is super strong hand and you can argue that it is too strong to flat the raise. However, the other player has one foot out of the tourney and is in the bb next. What is your move? Even if I KNOW for a fact that villain has A8 and may very well call my shove- do I want to?

Thank you for posting.

1 If the SB calls the shove with A8 type hands shove every time their range is too wide not to.

2 If the SB will fold most of their range to the shove than raise them instead they are weak so size the raise for a shove on the flop.

3 Flatting is fine as well but we are a little short for that play as we only have 18.5bb I like the flat a little deeper. If you do flat will the SB check missed flops that have overs? If yes we can flat more often.

Hope this helps

 

[Tigroslav]

If he calls your shove and you win, you’re in great shape to win it all. The pay jump from 2nd to 1st is probably a big enough justification to take your chances and end up losing sometimes in this spot. The times you get called and win probably outweigh the lost potential $ you gave up from not waiting for the small stack to bust, given the pay jump to first is bigger than 3rd to 2nd, and also the quality of your hand.
Also also, if small stack happens to double up, whole new game and you’ve missed a chance to get in a good spot anyway.
Playing passive on the proper money bubble is different than playing passive in this spot with these stacks and waiting for a bust.
Maybe if big stack is way bigger and if you win it’s still even stacks, then maybe? But given he’d be left with 1000 to your 7500, gotta go for it.
No math whatsoever to back this up, just my two cents.

Exactly. You have to take these spots if you wanna make profit longterm.
Cant just say no to that much +EV

 

[TotalMindegy]

What is your move? Even if I KNOW for a fact that villain has A8 and may very well call my shove- do I want to?

Allin, no question. not important it was 6,8 or 9max - if it was 9max 100%, if it was 6max and the first 2 pays, that makes a bit sense to consider it... but even like that, in the long run it makes ++++ for sure...

i read few of your other posts, i guess you don't play a lot, i mean 100+ sngs / session, you will see the result in a bigger sample, need at least few K sngs to say, you obviously doing something very wrong...

when i've started to play sngs, after the first 2,5K the roi was -3%, and in the next 3-4K it was +7%... and i didnt change much, almost nothing... the variance factor... just saying...

 

[Endwarfin]

Lets say you strongly put your opponent on Ax because he only seems to min raise from the SB with an A in hand.

You can 3 bet to 1000-1400 (obviously not folding to a jam).

We are assuming villain jams with AQ+ so if villain calls we can remove Ks and Qs as overs we are scared of.

Thus with the assumption of AX (A8) type hands in villains range
If an A comes on the flop and we do end up folding, we have saved enough to still play for first, while maintaining 3x more chips than 3rd place.
Otherwise, Jam flop and win 3000 chips.
Sometimes you will be called on the flop as a bigger favorite because villain calls off with an under pair to your jacks.

 

[StealTheButton]

Allin, no question. not important it was 6,8 or 9max - if it was 9max 100%, if it was 6max and the first 2 pays, that makes a bit sense to consider it... but even like that, in the long run it makes ++++ for sure...

i read few of your other posts, i guess you don't play a lot, i mean 100+ sngs / session, you will see the result in a bigger sample, need at least few K sngs to say, you obviously doing something very wrong...

when i've started to play sngs, after the first 2,5K the roi was -3%, and in the next 3-4K it was +7%... and i didnt change much, almost nothing... the variance factor... just saying...

I have around 5k tourneys on this account, almost all single table turbo sit n goes. Holding at around 20% ROI, so I'm not doing too bad. Havn't played much in the last few months, but thats a reasonable sample size I would say. I can only play 2 on my cell phone. So I can't play 100 per day.

 

[StealTheButton]

Lets say you strongly put your opponent on Ax because he only seems to min raise from the SB with an A in hand.

You can 3 bet to 1000-1400 (obviously not folding to a jam).

We are assuming villain jams with AQ+ so if villain calls we can remove Ks and Qs as overs we are scared of.

Thus with the assumption of AX (A8) type hands in villains range
If an A comes on the flop and we do end up folding, we have saved enough to still play for first, while maintaining 3x more chips than 3rd place.
Otherwise, Jam flop and win 3000 chips.
Sometimes you will be called on the flop as a bigger favorite because villain calls off with an under pair to your jacks.

3 Betting is a viable strategy. Only issue is villain is first to act and will sometimes jam the flop and rep the ace or king that falls on the flop (with an under pair, draw, or a host of other hands), Which puts me to a difficult decision.

 

[StealTheButton]

I fully realize how it is detrimental to your long term success not to get your chips in with these +EV situations. It's just amazing how often you can bust on the bubble of these 6 man sit n goes with the best hand too. With a different payout structure for 9 man or multi-table games where there is much higher reward for coming in first, or where you are already significantly in the money it changes things and I would instantly jam here.

Anyways, what happened is the flop came AKx and the villain made a large C-bet, so I folded. I did take out the BB and ended up winning. Also, if for example all three of us were equal with 3000 chips it would be very different and I would be All-In like Flynn. My decision may not have been "correct," but I have explained my rationale for it.