$20 NLHE STT: Playing KQ from SB to BTN open

[nabmom]

With 179 hands on BTN, he has stolen from BTN about 17% (1/6 opportunities) and this is his first time doing it in this game (out of 3 opportunities). At blinds of 100/200, I don't view a raise to 400 as a min-raise. Overall I figured that anything he's raising with has me beat.

So I think my fold here was correct, but would like to know what you think about it.

Merge - $20+$1.60|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 1,539.00
UTG: 1,634.00
UTG+1: 832.00
UTG+2: 1,915.00
MP: 1,430.00
MP+1: 880.00
CO: 2,470.00
BTN: 1,230.00
Hero (SB): 3,070.00

BB posts ante 10.00, UTG posts ante 10.00, UTG+1 posts ante 10.00, UTG+2 posts ante 10.00, MP posts ante 10.00, MP+1 posts ante 10.00, CO posts ante 10.00, BTN posts ante 10.00, Hero posts ante 10.00, Hero posts SB 100.00, BB posts BB 200.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 390.00) Hero has K♠ Q♦

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 400.00, fold, fold

 

[shinedown.45]

It's an obvious steal, most min-raises from the button usually are steal attempts IMO.
With his 400 in the pot, there is almost 800 in the pot and all you need to do is put in another 300 when your getting better than 2-1 to make the call with KQ.
Complete fail on your part IMO.

There are better players on here that will give you all the maths on why this was wrong to fold............wait for it.

 

[baudib1]

If this were a lower BI tournament there's an argument that he's probably a tard and you could gamble, especially with antes.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.213% 47.36% 02.86% 154878987 9341255.50 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 49.787% 46.93% 02.86% 153488566 9341255.50 { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }

However, the problem here is that he is committed to calling off any shove. With this stack size he cannot fold and the fact that he minraised instead of open-shoving is sorta scary, it's like he's inviting action and that will often be the top end of his range. So without a read that he'll bet/fold 1/3 his stack or do this with a wide range it's a pretty easy fold.

 

[WiZZiM]

usually trying to coax a shove with a min raise here.

Either that, or he is doing it to gain extra fold equity from regs, (but since your likely not a reg, he would only be doing it against one other player)

Also, be careful using those stats. The button steal is usually skewed, as he will likely be folding a ton of buttons early on, but then later stealing a ton from the button. If you play these games regularly, then i'd suggest setting up some filters or using your common sense.

Overall, really easy fold though.