20 BB raise, I have 88, wtf!?

[blankoblanco]

Don't have the hand history but I can recreate it, approximately.

Single-table SnG, we're now 7-handed, at the 25/50 blind level. I'm a bit under the starting stack with ~1300, villain in question has me covered with about ~2000.

UTG+1 calls for 50
MP calls for 50
I'm SB and look down at 88. I elect to just call and try to make a set (playing for set value is easy out of position, making big pots with marginal one-pair hands is not).
BB raises to 1000.
Folds back around to me. Now what? Would he do this with a legitimately big made hand? Why?

Notes for BB are that he'll call big-ish raises loosely preflop, out of position with speculative stuff like QJ.

 

[arkadiy]

If you have pockets, I am pretty sure he has pockets, either a lil lower or a lil higher.

 

[IVEverLow]

I tend to assume with those bets villain is holding a small to mid pocket pair that doesn't want a caller with overcards. I usually fold in those situations depending on my stack. In your case I fold.

 

[joeeagles]

It wouldn't make sense to play a big PP like this, but with the avg donk you can never be sure. The guess that he has a small pocket doesn't make sense either, why not play it for set value like you are doing, since he's OOP? Two high cards (AK or AQ)? It still doesn't make sense. Squeeze play with ATC? For what, 200 chips? This is a donk play whichever way you look at it. I know that saying to fold this is conservative and keeping it safe, but I mean really, I'd hate to see a big PP getting rewarded when he plays it this stupidly, or losing a race against 2 high cards. I don't blame you if you called though.

 

[Beavis68]

I tend to assume with those bets villain is holding a small to mid pocket pair that doesn't want a caller with overcards. I usually fold in those situations depending on my stack. In your case I fold.

interesting you fold if that was your read. wouldnt you be a decent favorite vs that range? 22-TT right?

Here I would fold because I would think he had 99+, KQ+ and some aces that are flips.

Pushing with big pairs used to be quite profitable in these games. People reacted like a predator that saw something run by. They would chase whether they really were hungry or not.

 

[ChuckTs]

If you have pockets, I am pretty sure he has pockets, either a lil lower or a lil higher.

...why? (please, no online riggedededness replies...)

Any stats or reads, combu? Kinda hard to reply without some kind of past history with the guy, as I'm sure you can imagine.

Read-less, I probably save my chips and wait for some 1st in opportunities. Blinds aren't really big enough to be worth making crazy moves like this (by villain), and he's probably not doing this unless he's making some kind of a move with AK/medium pair+, or is very aggressive and will have a less predictable range.

I think AK or a med pair actually fit pretty well here; nobody likes playing them OOP when you've got a bunch of players showing interest in seeing a flop. A small pair would probably be glad to see a flop, but 88+ will probably think the pot is worth stealing, and might make a move.

Your M really isn't that low right now, and we'll have some time to find some better spots. Without reads, I fold.

 

[IVEverLow]

interesting you fold if that was your read. wouldnt you be a decent favorite vs that range? 22-TT right?

My wording is way wrong here, sorry about that. I didn't mean "low" low, more along the lines of 77-TT, so I guess I should have just said mid pp. Then again I'm relatively new to the game, so feel free to correct any mistakes I make. Now you've got me thinking and I know I still fold, but I can't say exactly why. Crap.

 

[edge-t]

Fold, M is good, no point risking a bust out.

 

[young hova]

yeah, I think if you give us a pattern of what his typical raises are that would help. If you could associate some preflop raises with show down hands I think that would help you get a decision of what to do. We need to know if he's a hyper aggressive maniac and his overbets are typical. Does he raise the strength of his hand? etc.

all donks considered, I like what IVeverlow said. Alot of people will raise that big with marginal hands when they since weakness and they're most likely going to push regardless of what the flop brings, they might have a decent pocket pair I would be most worried about 99 and 10 10, I don't really thinkn he would have better paired hole cards than that. he could but i have no clue how he plays.

normally i'd lay this down, but if he's a hyper aggressive maniac and I have reason to believe he's weak I might be willing to race with the overcards, chances are slim if he has me covered but if I have him covered I highly consider it, I woudn't want a player like that acting after me all the time if he's making ridiculous raises often

Everyone is saying your M is good for the moment, but how can you know when he didnt' even supply a time for the blinds? I could see if its like 10 minutes until the next level, but if its less than 3 mins until blinds increase (50/100 I would figure) then its gonna be a sense of urgency, especially if the players are taking there sweet time because you'll see less hands and blinds will seemingly increase faster. This is definitely a favorable spot for you if you had any type of gut-feeling that he couldve been weak

 

[robwhufc]

He's got a pair of Jacks. You've only got 8's so fold.

 

[blankoblanco]

chuck, i get what you're saying about how most pairs lower than mine (which are obviously what i'd like to be up against if i call) seem likely to just call and play for set value. that would be the more typical thing to do, but then any villain who's raising 20 BBs here, regardless of the hand, is probably not typical, eh? so i dunno

i mean, what's more bizarre of a play.. raising 99+ that much when you pretty surely have the best hand and will scare all weaker hands away, or raising 22-77 that much instead of calling and set-mining? i'm not really sure. clearly the point is that it seems like a raise that does not want a call. i'd think something as good as AA-JJ can almost be ruled out. TT-99 seems like the plausible holdings to fear here, and that's a pretty small range.

then of course there's the heavy chance of two high cards, where we're about a 55% favorite. interesting question is do we even want to get involved with that hand here? if villain showed KJ face up, should i get all-in with the marginal edge, and some extra big blinds in the pot, or fold? i guess it's a matter of personal philosophy. playing these things to win outright certainly isn't a bad idea, and it's something of a slight adjustment i've made in my play (although nothing maniacal at all, still pretty solid TAG). payouts are top-heavy and 1st is where the money's at.

to young hova: it's 5 minute blind levels, so for the sake of averaging, it would be reasonable to guess we're ~3 minutes until the next level, but the following level is 30/60, then 40/80, then 50/100.

i realize my M is in pretty good shape, but regardless, if i think i have a decent edge, big M or not, i'd like to press it. i know i can wait for a "better spot", but the question is basically if we think i have an edge here.

i should have lied about my holding and said i had TT, because then i think it gets really interesting (i'd call with TT, but i think a lot of other people would not). so what's the minimum people are calling with here? assume no real reads except the guy is semi-loose, semi-aggressive

 

[joosebuck]

if you wouldnt have limped before his shove or acted after his shove to begin with i doubt you even ask this. easy fold.

 

[blankoblanco]

what if i had TT?

 

[joosebuck]

i value raise with almost any pp there. then probably fold to the shove.

 

[dj11]

There are a lot of people who will bet huge with small pp (22-99) knowing they have outs. Bigger pp, generally play it more by the book. Clearly villain did not want any action, or was so new to the game that he assumes it is a lotto.

Depending on the stakes involved, (real, play, freeroll) and what you set out to learn (if anything) your next move will cover the gamut. If you have a read on the villain, that would come into play. If he is loosy joosy, call in a heartbeat. If all he can do is huge bets, but isn't in every hand, fold in a heartbeat. If he has shown some savvy fold, but take a second or two.

BTW, what did u do?

 

[joeeagles]

i should have lied about my holding and said i had TT, because then i think it gets really interesting (i'd call with TT, but i think a lot of other people would not). so what's the minimum people are calling with here? assume no real reads except the guy is semi-loose, semi-aggressive

Well, you can't really lie about having TT instead of 88 because in that case you should raise when all you have is 2 weak limpers in the pot. Even if you're OOP you shouldn't play TT for set value, so you'd raise to ~250/300, and if villain shoves back the scenario is now different because he's doing it after you've shown strength, rather than just limping as was done before.

But for the sake of it since you asked lets assume you did limp with TT and villain makes his huge raise. Although its impossible to know what he's doing this with I agree when you say AA-JJ can almost be ruled out so therefore you should call and, at worse, take the chance to race against 2 overcards if that is what he has. I don't think I could fold TT in this case, even if I admit the difference isn't really that huge compared to 88, its actually close to zero if indeed he does have AK, the only difference being that if he has 99 or 88, you're a big favored.

This play by villain doesn't make much sense to me, and I don't understand why Chuck says "I think AK or a med pair actually fit pretty well here". I don't see it fitting well at all, why play it like this? You mean if you were villain and had AK or TT or 99 this is what you would do? Raise it to 1000? I know you're OOP, but I'm kind of perplex.

 

[robwhufc]

clearly the point is that it seems like a raise that does not want a call. i'd think something as good as AA-JJ can almost be ruled out. TT-99 seems like the plausible holdings to fear here, and that's a pretty small range.

I totally disagree with you (and Joe Eagles) - you are right that this person doesn't want to make tricky post flop decisions, but I'd be surprised if their cards weren't specifically JJ, QQ or AK (i know the other thread you posted in someone pushed 100BB with 88!).

 

[joeeagles]

I totally disagree with you (and Joe Eagles) - you are right that this person doesn't want to make tricky post flop decisions, but I'd be surprised if their cards weren't specifically JJ, QQ or AK (i know the other thread you posted in someone pushed 100BB with 88!).

On second thought you might be right about JJ, I really don't think QQ or AK plays like this, but somehow I wouldn't be surprised if it were that. So then you'd fold TT even if you initially limped, I'm assuming?

 

[lukins82]

I would have raise....I think...

 

[blankoblanco]

On second thought you might be right about JJ, I really don't think QQ or AK plays like this, but somehow I wouldn't be surprised if it were that. So then you'd fold TT even if you initially limped, I'm assuming?

yeah, i'm curious about this now. rob, do you fold TT here?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

There's really not a great deal of difference between 88 and TT here. Most of the time this is a weak villain with either a huge hand ("I want to get lots of chips with this hand" or "I don't want to get outdrawn"), or a marginal hand ("I just want this pot now and this big raise will take it down"). 99 is pretty much bang inbetween these, and as such I don't think it or any close pocket pair is too likely.

Considering that it's also unlikely villain pulls this move with AT-A9 etc, as I said there's not a lot of difference between 88 and TT here.

 

[young hova]

to young hova: it's 5 minute blind levels, so for the sake of averaging, it would be reasonable to guess we're ~3 minutes until the next level, but the following level is 30/60, then 40/80, then 50/100.

for some reason I just assumed that the blinds would jump from 25/50 to 50/100 but since they are jumping only jumping to 30/60 that makes a HUGE difference because your M is alright in that case. In this case, I would definitely lay down without any reads on the villain, you might have him beat, but this isn't the greatest spot, the risk/reward isn't worth it here this early in the tournament. No reason to race even if you have him beat just yet, and there is still the small possibility that he has you dominated with an over pair. If the blinds were going to 50/100 next level than I wouldve highly considered calling, but increasing to 30/60 is something totally different -- miswell fold.