$2 NLHE STT Turbo: Can I really shove this wide in this spot? ICM question

[jaded848]

$2 NL HE STT Turbo: Can I really shove this wide in this spot? ICM question

This hand was pretty standard, but after reviewing it in SnG Power Tools (my trial for SnG Wiz expired and I can't afford it yet ), I was told I could shove 81% of hands here. Is that correct????? I even made the calling ranges of my opponents wider than I realistically expected, about 15% for all 3 big stacks when in actuality I feel it would be more around 10%.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
Hero (UTG) (t2800)
MP (t478)
Button (t4860)
SB (t2537)
BB (t2825)
Hero's M: 6.22
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J

, A

Hero bets t2800 (All-In), 3 folds, BB calls t2500
Flop: (t5750) 7

, K

, K

(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t5750) 2

(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t5750) A

(2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: t5750

 

[WiZZiM]

You've mucked something up somewhere, check your edge, it may be in negative, though it really shouldn't make a differance. We are shoving a super tight range here, in fact, id say that AJ would be close to the bottom of my shoving range here, i might shove in A10s, but thats about as low as id go.. Even if they are only calling fairly tight for these levels 15%, we get called often enough to make it a bad play to shove marginal hands here. (also, id expect an average $2 sng player to be calling wider than 15% on average, but it's not a bad range.) It's good that you are widening their ranges here, as we know shoving and getting called wide, later on in a game is bad, so if we make our opponants shoving ranges wider than we expect, then we can safely say that a given push/fold is good/bad. Like, if we make our opponants ranges wider, which hurts our range, and it's still a +Ev shove, then you know its good.

Id have to SNG wiz it, but i think you might find that even shoving a hand like AJ is only just correct, it's pretty close, id definately shove it, but it's probably closer than you think. As we know late game the looser they call the worse it is for us. And also, were pretty darn deep here for a SNG, we don't want to be shoving a wide range here. I'm actually leaning toward a fold, but i know in game im probably shoving, cos im a donkey.. but id say this is close to a fold. (Certainly not 81% shoving range haha)

 

[jaded848]

My edge is set to +.05. Checked the structure, it knows that 1st gets 50, 2nd 30 and 3rd 20. I also tried giving the players w/ 2000 chips equal chips to me, so the program didn't think I would still have chips left if I lost. Still at 81%, I have no idea what's wrong. Hmmmm very strange.

 

[WiZZiM]

I'll punch it into wiz later on, but yeah 81% is retarded..

 

[WiZZiM]

As we can see, the range is certainly not 81% haha. Aj as i thought is a marginally bad shove. so when were using calculators like this, the rule is, if you make a mistake that is .50 in either direction, then it's a huge one. so here, after i played around with the ranges, made them wider than you expected etc, it works out to be a -.28 shove, which isn't a huge mistake, but it's still there. It's funny how sng's work like this, were folding AJ here, but shoving 87 BVB. It's just the fact that we have a decent stack, and were shoving into a full table, all with decent stacks too.

However after i say that, im still fine with a shove.. it's never going to be horrible.