$2 NLHE STT Turbo: AQs vs shove raise pf

[jaded848]

$2 NL HE STT Turbo: AQs vs shove raise pf

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/13/29

Once again, I know this is an ICM situation, and I'd be able to figure it out if I had SNG wizard but for now I'm trying to get by with SNG powertools. Unfortunately, I don't think the program has the capacity to replicate this scenario.....if anyone knows how, please let me know!

But basically, is this a call or a fold?




Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button (t1195)
SB (t1895)
BB (t1735)
UTG (t2330)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1820)
MP1 (t855)
MP2 (t2280)
CO (t1390)
Hero's M: 10.11
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A

, Q

1 fold, Hero bets t360, 1 fold, MP2 calls t360, 3 folds, BB raises to t1735 (All-In)
?????

 

[t1riel]

I'd flod here. A reraise seems like he has AK+. Plus, you have no idea what MP2 is going to do.

 

[WiZZiM]

you need to be able to read your opponants, what would the BB here shove with? what would the MP2 Call with, has he limped in or called a lot of raises before? is the BB a loose fish? is he a solid looking player? without this your question cannot be answered.


next thing as the blinds get higher our raise size can get smaller, this is due to the blinds being a bigger proportion of our stack.. my std raise here would be somehting around 300.. saving 60 chips doesnt seem like much, do it 100 times and it really is...

Icm calculators only give you push or fold info. you wont be able to find out much with this scenario.. but with 15bb's id probably just overshove preflop.. im fine with shoving AQs here.. i dont like raising as we get action often and i really hate folding so i shove it.. but its the bottom of my range..

 

[cjatud2012]

This is a fold for me, I don't think it has too much to do with ICM, but more with the fact that between the BB and MP2 you're never ahead here. Just fold, you'll hit the blinds in a min, and after that you'll have 9-10 BB's left which is plenty in the late phases of a turbo.

 

[Jillychemung]

^^^^ +1

I agree that there isn't any ICM considerations here yet and I agree with WiZZiM that you should have some read by now on your opponents.

 

[dsvw56]

This is basically a snap fold. Off the top of my head I'd say you'd need like QQ+ to call here, maybe KK+, against any reasonable range. Also, make your open slightly smaller here. 300 is just as good as 360.

 

[jaded848]

Reads are difficult in turbo sngs. Less than 50 hands would have been played at this point in the sng, and if you add in the fact that players will change their playing style as the sng progresses, it is hard to say whether this player would be making this move with a mid pocket pair (as I've seen happen before) or a monster.

Still, I agree with the fold, but mostly based on my cards, not my opponents. As it turns out, he had JJ.

 

[cjatud2012]

Reads are difficult in turbo sngs. Less than 50 hands would have been played at this point in the sng, and if you add in the fact that players will change their playing style as the sng progresses, it is hard to say whether this player would be making this move with a mid pocket pair (as I've seen happen before) or a monster.

Do you use a HUD? This makes it a little simpler to get reads. By reads, I don't mean "he has to have pocket sevens here", it's more like "this guy has a 3-bet percentage of 2%, which represents a narrow range of JJ+, AK. My hand doesn't do very well against this range, and I should fold." Also, depending on whether the player is good or bad, you can predict how they will adjust during higher blinds. Good players will become more loose/aggressive, and bad players will become more tight.

 

[WiZZiM]

if hes not multitabling, which is highly likely, then a hud is a waste. sure try it out. but unless your planning on playing 20 tables at once, dont bother, rely on a little thing called observation and taking notes..

and reads really arnt difficult.. we can put our opponants on an approx range here.. try this

based on good sng strat, has the guy been playing lots of pots early on.. if so, hes probably a bad player,, is the guy tight? if so, he might be a semi ok reg, not a great one, but just ok. has the guy made any weird plays or whatever, this is the stuff you need to pick up on, like say he bets 7x at blinds 10/20, likelyhood is, he is a fish..

that said, wahts a bad player going to shove in this situation.. with a raise and a call, i think it becomes less likely hes going to shove weak.. so i can safely assume his range is something like 88+ A10s+ perhaps KQs something around there would be about correct.. against that range our hand doesnt do too well.. he would need to shove a lot lighter to make this a call.

but it differs from player to player, so folding here may be the correct play, but calling may be the correct play in another circumstance,