$2 NLHE STT Turbo: AJo on the BTN w/ 3 left

[jaded848]

$2 NL HE STT Turbo: AJo on the BTN w/ 3 left

I was the chip leader, but only slightly. BB was 45/25 and pretty aggressive. Immediately after I shoved, I realized it was an overbet. However, my question is, if I had raised to say 900 and BB shoved over me, could I have laid down this hand considering his aggressive nature? It could also present a problem, since if I lay it down my raises may not be respected in the future, meaning I would have to wait for a real premium hand to raise against him.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds (3 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
SB (t3350)
BB (t5050)
Hero (Button) (t5100)
Hero's M: 11.33
Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, J

Hero bets t5100 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls t4750 (All-In)
Flop: (t10250) K

, A

, 9

(2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: (t10250) J

(2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t10250) 5

(2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t10250

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Make the preflop raise 850.

Then yes you can fold after he shoves.

 

[jaded848]

If he's 3-betting me often, what kind of hands can I call the 3bet with? I just feel so helpless waiting for premium when the blinds are that high and the game is 3 handed.

 

[c9h13no3]

Make the preflop raise 850.

Then yes you can fold after he shoves.

If we raise to 850, and villain shoves we'll be getting...

(850+5050+150)/4200 = 1.44:1

Thus we need 41% equity to call. So his 3-betting range needs to be at least the top 10% of hands for us to call. There are 1326 combinations of NLHE hands, so we need him to shove 132 combos to call.

-6 combos for each pair.
-16 combos for each unpaired hand.

So if villain stacks AA-44, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ then that's (6*11) + (16*5) = 146 combinations.

Idk, I'm not sure folding is such an easy decision. Given that your effective stack has an M of ten, I'm not sure that raising small is better preflop than just open shoving. I have no idea what a 3-betting range is for these SnG's, but I certainly don't think you could easily fold AJ unless your opponents are playing very tight. If players generally 3-bet a tight range (8% or less) then I suppose a small raise is better, but do players really 3-bet that tight?

 

[salex77]

I would bet 850 and then see if he calls then make a decision afterwards depending on whether your opponent rr or calls

 

[WiZZiM]

If we raise to 850, and villain shoves we'll be getting...

(850+5050+150)/4200 = 1.44:1

Thus we need 41% equity to call. So his 3-betting range needs to be at least the top 10% of hands for us to call. There are 1326 combinations of NLHE hands, so we need him to shove 132 combos to call.

-6 combos for each pair.
-16 combos for each unpaired hand.

So if villain stacks AA-44, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ then that's (6*11) + (16*5) = 146 combinations.

Idk, I'm not sure folding is such an easy decision. Given that your effective stack has an M of ten, I'm not sure that raising small is better preflop than just open shoving. I have no idea what a 3-betting range is for these SnG's, but I certainly don't think you could easily fold AJ unless your opponents are playing very tight. If players generally 3-bet a tight range (8% or less) then I suppose a small raise is better, but do players really 3-bet that tight?

Given reads this is a raise/call, were not folding AJ 3 handed at these blind levels, most of the guys will go with any aceX and lots of broadway, we have a lot of stuff we dominate here.

The shove isn't horrible, but i do prefer putting in a std raise, as it allows our opponants to make mistakes. Though if the guy is 3bet shvoing with most aces, he's probably calling with them too. What genearlly happens with the bad players at these levels is that they are super tight on the bubble, and as soon as they make it into the money they think they can just go crazy.. so his 3b range has to be widened here.

 

[OzExorcist]

Unless villain is the nitties nit that ever nitted (and our read says he isn't) then I can't ever see myself raise-folding this.

We're about 43% against the range c9 gives above and I tend to agree that most hands that are three-bet shoving over a standard raise are calling an open shove too. If anything the open shove actually looks a little bit weaker because it looks more like you don't want action.

It's a close thing for me. An open shove means the villain can't pull a stop and go on you, which would suck if we didn't hit the flop, a standard raise means we don't risk as much of our stack just to get the blinds to fold (which will happen a lot)... I dunno, I'm pretty much fine with either option. I probably raise to 750 and call a shove but open shoving certainly isn't a bad play either.

 

[c9h13no3]

Hmm, totally forgot to take into account ICM considerations in my calcs... that could seriously push this to a raise to 750/fold (or it would make open shoving a lot better).

 

[WiZZiM]

Hmm, totally forgot to take into account ICM considerations in my calcs... that could seriously push this to a raise to 750/fold (or it would make open shoving a lot better).

Id hate to raise/fold this hand to an aggressive BB, he shoves with stuff you mention, and id say his range is wider than that. Since were already ITM, were making this call. We have to be ahead of his range here, were going for the win. If were planning to fold to a riase, im shoving it everytime, the idea of raising is to get our opponants to make a mistake and shove over with their junk, if were planning to fold to the BB, just shove it.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

AF's Opinion:

Id hate to raise/fold this hand to an aggressive BB, he shoves with stuff you mention, and id say his range is wider than that. Since were already ITM, were making this call. We have to be ahead of his range here, were going for the win. If were planning to fold to a riase, im shoving it everytime, the idea of raising is to get our opponants to make a mistake and shove over with their junk, if were planning to fold to the BB, just shove it.

During this sng I'm sure he showed some hands that he 3-bet.

That important info would make this decision easier.

I don't think shoving is a bad play, I just think it would be better to raise to 850 and depending on what hands you've seen this player 3-bet with make your decision from there.

What if you knew somehow that this player is gonna either 3-bet shove your 850 raise OR call your shove. Would you fold? Would you shove anyway?

I know there's no way to know that for sure, I just think that makes my point for me - The question was if he raised to 900 and the guy shoves, can he fold given his aggressive nature? The answer is yes! It doesn't matter how aggressive this player seems or what your reputation will be if you fold.

The sample size is too small to know for sure what type of player he is. Not to mention we don't have history of the types of hands he's 3-betting. The safe play is to raise to 850 and fold to a 3-bet shove. If you are gonna call the 3-bet shove anyway - just shove to begin with.

I think the reason he just shoved instead of raising to 900 was because he wasn't going to fold the hand ever anyway.

If we decide to raise to 850 we have to fold to a shove from the SB.

Shoving takes a lot of the guess work out of this situation but it also leaves you no way out if the guy does have a big hand. (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ,)

In conclusion, I'd like to say that all of this is my opinion and I know that I'm not as respected in this community as others. Also, this play is extremely read dependent and player specific. Going off the info I have in this thread - this is what I think the best play is.

P.S. Thanks for reading!

 

[WiZZiM]

During this sng I'm sure he showed some hands that he 3-bet.

That important info would make this decision easier.Sure would, but i highly doubt that its going to be liekly hes showndown a 3bet.

I don't think shoving is a bad play, I just think it would be better to raise to 850 and depending on what hands you've seen this player 3-bet with make your decision from there.
Sometimes we don't have that info, and were just making assumptions, like, if we know he's not a good player and he's aggressive, what can we assume hes going to shove over with? KQ? sure, KJ probably, A9, yep, probably.
What if you knew somehow that this player is gonna either 3-bet shove your 850 raise OR call your shove. Would you fold? Would you shove anyway? Well if i knew he was calling, yep id still shove, as his calling range just has to include stuff liek KQ KJ etc, so yep, im shoving for sure. we crush his range here, AJof is probably toward the bottom of our range for being able to get it in here.

I know there's no way to know that for sure, I just think that makes my point for me - The question was if he raised to 900 and the guy shoves, can he fold given his aggressive nature? The answer is yes! It doesn't matter how aggressive this player seems or what your reputation will be if you fold. My table image doesnt concern me. but he's an aggressive, obviously bad player, given the reads from jaded, hes a $2 player, so hes probably shoving stuff that we crush. So sure, we can fold, but my point is, when we are ITM, and i have a hand that i feel is 'ahead' of someones range, i will get it in.

Ideal distribution for sng's is more firsts than thirds but more thirds than seconds. so, a distribution of 14/12/13/12 would be close to ideal. So what that tells us is, we firstly want to make it into the money, then we want to win. If i feel im ahead of his range, which given reads and the buy in level, im getting it in. and im not worried about finishing third

The sample size is too small to know for sure what type of player he is. Not to mention we don't have history of the types of hands he's 3-betting. The safe play is to raise to 850 and fold to a 3-bet shove. If you are gonna call the 3-bet shove anyway - just shove to begin with.I disagree, i mean, ideally we want a hand were really comfortable with, like AK, but what raise/calling does is allow him to make more mistakes, rather than just shoving. Just shoving allows him to play perfectly (well it allows him to play better than if we make a raise) what if he decides to do something crazy and shove over our raise with some random hand. He wouldn't have done that if wed just shoved.

Again, in low limiot SNG's we have to make assumptions, based on buy in level, and what we have seen him do. sure it's a small sample size, but surely by the end of a SNG we can sort of know if his range will be loose or tight etc. and we can sort of form a range off that limited knowledge, and what we have seen at these stakes.

I think the reason he just shoved instead of raising to 900 was because he wasn't going to fold the hand ever anyway.

If we decide to raise to 850 we have to fold to a shove from the SB. No comment .

Shoving takes a lot of the guess work out of this situation but it also leaves you no way out if the guy does have a big hand. (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ,)
As mentioned above, it allows him to play perfected. But if the guy is calling with like 20-25% of hands, this is a profitable shove with AJ, and as mentioned he calls with a lot that is worse..
In conclusion, I'd like to say that all of this is my opinion and I know that I'm not as respected in this community as others.?? it really doesn't matter, were talking about a poker hand, not history you have had with certain individuals on this site. Also, this play is extremely read dependent and player specific. Going off the info I have in this thread - this is what I think the best play is.

P.S. Thanks for reading!

I feel that this spot is pretty standard, again AJ is probably the bottom of my range for doing this, but im raising and im calling the bb's shove. Though this may change if im actually playing the SNG, as i may form a differant read than jaded, or have picked up something completely differant etc.

Just out of curiosity, what would you assume a bad aggressive $2 player will be 3betting here with, just a range?

 

[c9h13no3]

the idea of raising is to get our opponants to make a mistake and shove over with their junk

Well if we can't call because of ICM reasons, wouldn't we be the one making the mistake by calling his shove?

I haven't done the math, but I'd think open shoving would be the best choice.

And I just want to second that raise/folding is *not* the safest play, it just exposes you to the opposite kind of mistake (folding when calling is more profitable). And given villain's likely crazy range, raise/folding sounds horrible. If you raise this, you really need to do it with the intention of calling a shove.

 

[WiZZiM]

What do you mean by ICM reasons?

I punched all the ranges etc into sng wiz, it's hard to find a range that it wont be profitable to shove preflop here with.

But i totally agree with that last statement, somewhere in my acres of babble i mentioned something about it, we should have been thinking ok, if i raise here, im calling a shove etc.

 

[c9h13no3]

What do you mean by ICM reasons?

I calculated all that using cEV, not $EV. So obviously things would change. In a cash game, it'd be a snap call, but in a tournament we can't win all the money when we have all the chips. So obviously, we need more equity to call.

And against his re-shove range, we may not have 60% or 50% equity or whatever it is we need if I were to recalculate this.

By shoving, we put the bad predicament on our opponent, who needs high equity against our range to call. Essentially ICM makes calling suck, and makes winning the blinds pretty awesome.

 

[OzExorcist]

If you are gonna call the 3-bet shove anyway - just shove to begin with.

The issue for me with this is working out which is more likely: the villain figuring our open shove is weak and calling light, or the villain figuring our raise to 750-850 is ripe for a re-steal and shoving light.

Open shoving gives us more fold equity but that's not really what I'm looking for in a hand like this. AJ on the button three-handed is a big hand and I'm looking for the play that will get me the most action from weaker hands.

Big hands are going to get it all in with us anyway. Really weak hands pretty much have to fold if we shove but they might try a re-steal which is why I might favour raising to 750 then calling a shove. Reiterating what's been said above, I think raise-folding is a huge mistake here because the villain's range is pretty wide and we have a strong hand that performs well against his likely range.

WiZZiM's thinking about playing for the win once you're ITM applies for me as well. You don't want to be making dumb plays that spew away your chips and ensure you finish in third but when you're holding a genuinely strong hand (like we are in this hand) I think it's fine to get it in and if we run into a monster so be it.

 

[WiZZiM]

I calculated all that using cEV, not $EV. So obviously things would change. Ahh, ok, i didnt really read your earlier post . But were always using $EV in sng's, heads up we change to Cev. but his range would be wider than 10% here i would say. most of these guys play loose early, tighten up oin the bubble, then play loose again once they cash. Not everyone, but we can make certain assumptions about players, and in this case i feel he is 3betting much wider than 10% In a cash game, it'd be a snap call, but in a tournament we can't win all the money when we have all the chips. So obviously, we need more equity to call.

And against his re-shove range, we may not have 60% or 50% equity or whatever it is we need if I were to recalculate this.

By shoving, we put the bad predicament on our opponent, who needs high equity against our range to call. Essentially ICM makes calling suck, and makes winning the blinds pretty awesome.

Totally agree with that, and yes, just wanted to know what you were getting at..

Having thought this over, i tend to agree with this specific hand AJ, shoving is the best play, but with a hand like AQ i definately think that raise/calling a shove is the best route, i want to extract value from hands like this and i don't want my opponant playing 'perfectly' against me. It's pretty close either way wouldnt you agree?

 

[jaded848]

Totally agree with that, and yes, just wanted to know what you were getting at..

Having thought this over, i tend to agree with this specific hand AJ, shoving is the best play, but with a hand like AQ i definately think that raise/calling a shove is the best route, i want to extract value from hands like this and i don't want my opponant playing 'perfectly' against me. It's pretty close either way wouldnt you agree?

I thought about this a lot too and have read through all the replies. However, my question is, if we assume he will call shoves with hands like AK, AQ, etc, then why wouldn't raise/calling a shove be the best route with AJ also? What hands is he folding if we open shove that we want him to fold? KQ? 22? But 22 fairs just as equally against AJ as it does against AQ sooo I still don't know....

Unless you mean the shove looks weaker than a raise, as Oz mentioned above. But if that's the case, then we should be shoving with AQ also...

Definitely pretty close either way.

 

[OzExorcist]

What hands is he folding if we open shove that we want him to fold? KQ? 22? But 22 fairs just as equally against AJ as it does against AQ sooo I still don't know....

Short answer? Pretty much none.

Maybe we get him to fold a small pair if he's risk averse and figures at best he's flipping... but that's about it, and that's presupposing that we want those small pairs to fold rather than flip with us. Again, you'd probably have to have run into the nittiest nit on the nittingest day of the year to find someone who's folding AQ in this spot. AK calls and obviously big pairs do too.

Which is why I figured the move that will get us the stacks in most often, not the one that gets the most folds, is the one we go with.

 

[c9h13no3]

Alright, I decided to redo these calculations including ICM because I have a sneaking suspicion that we actually want the blinds, not more action.

If we win the blinds, we have 35.8% tournament equity.
If we shove and win the all in against the BB, we have 45.2% equity.
If we shove and lose, we have 20.2% equity.

So, we make an equation, solve for the equity we need to have when we're all in for getting called to be better than getting the blinds.

0.358 = [E*0.452] + [(1 - E)*0.202]

Solving for E, we get 62.4% equity.

So what does this mean? Well if we assume villain calls with 100% of hands, AJo has 63.6 % equity!

63.563% { AhJs }
36.437% { random }

So obviously we do not want to create action with this hand. We want our opponent to fold as much as possible (obviously, unless we have him truly dominated AJ vs. JT style). Therefore, I'd contend that we don't want to raise small and then call it off, because we'd rather have our opponent fold most of those hands he'd re-raise all in with. We mostly just want the blinds.

 

[WiZZiM]

So, what your saying is that AJ doesn't have enough equity vs his range to raise/call here.

Vs a spewy player like this, he probably calls with worse anyways, probably not with J10, but ive been suprised before.

I still don't know, i know that my ITM by far is the worst part of my game, but i think that im happy to get it in here, "flipping" can't be horrible at this stage of the game. Your probably right, and i know that shoving is obviously fine. But i want value, as silly as it sounds, vs a aggressive player, i want him to shove over with random aces, J10 KQ etc, i dont mind flipping, and we have him dominated a fair amount of time..

Anyways, just so this thread doesn't spiral out of control ill say that shoving is the best play here, fine to get it in. but, if it was me, id raise/call...

 

[c9h13no3]

Well which is better really boils down to what extra hands he shoves over our small raise, that he folds to a shove. If we want to do this correctly, we should calculate that.

So how about this: Give me a range that villain shoves when we raise small, and a range that he calls our shove with. I would predict a range, but I suck at tournaments and I have no idea how the typical SnG player plays.

Then I'll do a little number crunching on this sort of thing. This thread is just getting good.

 

[OzExorcist]

I'd figure it will be something like this:

Shoves when we raise small: 22+, Ax, KT+, QT+, JT and occasional ATC bluffs
Calls our shove: 22+, A8+, KJ+

Some villains might widen it to Ax for calling.

 

[WiZZiM]

Yep i think he's calling wider, i think most aces. so when i actually put in the ranges in pokerstove, there isn't a lot of differance, i can already see that shoving will be the best play... but ill post a range a little later, when i finish playing..