$2 NLHE STT Turbo: A9s on the bubble facing shove from short stack SB

J

jaded848

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$2 NL HE STT Turbo: A9s on the bubble facing shove from short stack SB

Blinds were really high and I felt that given the circumstances, SB was shoving a very wide range here. He hadn't been real loose previously, but I felt like i was ahead here a majority of the time, and I had 1700 chips to spare if he did beat me. Still, not sure if this was a correct call...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
UTG (t4750)
Button (t2950)
SB (t2020)
Hero (BB) (t3780)
Hero's M: 5.04
Preflop: Hero is BB with 9
diamond.gif
, A
diamond.gif

2 folds, SB bets t2020 (All-In), Hero calls t1520
Flop: (t4040) 6
diamond.gif
, Q
diamond.gif
, K
spade.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t4040) 4
club.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t4040) 3
spade.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: t4040
 
M

Marginal

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Well you are miles ahead of his range. I call as well.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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The easiest thing to do would be to look at Wizard, but since I don't have that, let's look at some math.

We can figure out our equities for each different outcome...
Before the hand
Player - chips - percentage - equity
Player 1 - t4750 - 0.3102 = $5.5836
Player 2 - t2950 - 0.2369 = $4.2642
Player 3 - t2020 - 0.1775 = $3.1950 (villain)
Player 4 - t3780 - 0.2753 = $4.9554 (hero)

If we call and win...
Player - chips - percentage - equity
Player 1 - t4750 - 0.3419 = $6.1542
Player 2 - t2950 - 0.2939 = $5.2902
Player 3 - t5800 - 0.3642 = $6.5556 (hero)

If we call and lose...
Player - chips - percentage - equity
Player 1 - t4750 - 0.3121 = $5.6178
Player 2 - t2950 - 0.2400 = $4.3200
Player 3 - t4040 - 0.2878 = $5.1804 (villain)
Player 4 - t1760 - 0.1602 = $2.8836 (hero)

Now we have to figure out how our hand does against his range. This part is inexact, but let's just say he's pushing 35% (which is actually a pretty tight range). Against the top 35% of hands:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.675% 40.76% 02.91% 1102800344 78812156.00 { 55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 56.325% 53.41% 02.91% 1445015664 78812156.00 { A9s }

So now we calculate if this is positive or negative in the long run:
(chance we lose) * (what we stand to lose) + (chance we win) * (what we stand to win)
.43675($2.8836-$4.9554) + .56325($6.5556-$4.9554)
-$0.90485 + $0.90131 = -$0.00353

So this is basically neutral $EV to call, and that's just against the top 35% of hands. If he's shoving more than that, you're making a +$EV call. The only thing that may sway me away from calling is that if we call and lose, we have to go all in soon, preferably the next hand, when we're in the SB. ICM can't account for that.
 
J

jaded848

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Yea, it was a bit of a dilemma for me. The thing is everyone was shoving at this point (obviously), and I wasn't sure I would have as good an opportunity to pick up chips with a hand that's this strong- I was more worried about having to shove against the player to my left (chip leader) in the future and getting called since he had me covered. Either that, or I would have to fold more hands to him due to the presence of the SS still in the game. So I decided A9s was substantially ahead of his range, and called.

He had A8o. Phew lol.
 
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