$2 NLHE STT: On the bubble, top pair on scary board

[cjatud2012]

$2 NL HE STT: On the bubble, top pair on scary board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/13/2.5

This was a weird spot for me, and I have a couple of questions about a few moves.

First, I c-bet the flop here, figuring the board would scare him and I could take it down easy. I look back at it now, and I probably won't chase away any flush draws, and it would leave me with sort of a weird stack size... So should I check behind instead?

Second, I fire another barrel on the turn, which was probably a terrible idea... Is this a good example of Beluga Theorem? Either way, I can't fold after his c/r, right?

Any other comments are appreciated too.

full tilt poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 482942
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: t3435 M = 45.80
SB: t5860 M = 78.13
BB: t2690 M = 35.87
Hero (CO): t1515 M = 20.20

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is CO with T :diamond: Q :diamond:
Hero raises to t150, 1 fold, SB calls t125, 1 fold

Flop: (t350) J :heart: 4 :heart: Q :heart: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t200, SB calls t200

Turn: (t750) 8 :spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t350, SB raises to t1800, Hero ???

 

[pedroman7]

I like the way you played the hand up to this point. You could be ahead of alot draws and 2nd pairs peeling on the flop. So I like betting to protect your hand on the turn, as well as the c-bet on flop. The only thing I would do different is bet i little less pre flop. I would make it 125 instand of 150. This would keep the pot a bit smaller. As for the c/r I really don't see much your beating here unless you have a read that would make you think the villian would do this as a bluff or semi-bluff. I would fold leaving you with 800 chips(not great but still 16Xbb). Live to fight another day.

 

[c9h13no3]

You have a 30 big blind stack starting out preflop, and if you feel like you have an edge postflop on these guys, you should be looking for ways to artificially make your stack deeper.

Therefore, I'd raise less preflop (125 should do everything 150 will).

The problem with the flop is that TPNK isn't really that great of a hand here. I'm not sure what the exact pokerstove numbers are, but so many hands have big draws here that we aren't a big favorite over. And if we get check/raised on the flop that'll suck pretty bad.

So I think the flop is a good street to check back. It allows us to pick up a lot of equity when a brick hits on the turn, and it keeps the pot smaller which allows us more room to play postflop.

As played, on the turn, you'll have an M of 10 if you fold, and you're pretty borderline committed. I don't think folding is that bad, but you've kinda put yourself in a spot where any decision you make won't be that good.

 

[OzExorcist]

I probably check behind on the flop and again on the turn if villain lets us, then maybe call a small bet on the river depending on how things end up looking (if it's a fourth heart we're obv not).

It's a passive line but I prefer that and pot control to getting involved in a big pot with such a marginal hand. We're the short stack but blinds are still very low and we've got a lot of play left, I don't think we need to be doing anything that risks our whole stack at this stage.

As played I don't like either option on the turn - we've got top pair and a gutshot but it's possible we're already drawing dead or to a split. I'm just having a hard time putting the villain on anything much that we beat so I probably fold and hope to work my way back into the game with the 800-ish we have left.

 

[Weregoat]

I probably check behind on the flop and again on the turn if villain lets us, then maybe call a small bet on the river depending on how things end up looking (if it's a fourth heart we're obv not).

It's a passive line but I prefer that and pot control to getting involved in a big pot with such a marginal hand. We're the short stack but blinds are still very low and we've got a lot of play left, I don't think we need to be doing anything that risks our whole stack at this stage.

As played I don't like either option on the turn - we've got top pair and a gutshot but it's possible we're already drawing dead or to a split. I'm just having a hard time putting the villain on anything much that we beat so I probably fold and hope to work my way back into the game with the 800-ish we have left.

+1

Agreed. It's just a pair. Straights and flushes are out there. Keep the pot cheap. If you flopped the best hand and got two free streets out of it before you have to make a decision - fine.

But betting = inviting the pain. I would check back the flop, check/call a small bet on the turn, and if a heart came at any time I'd dump my hand.

 

[salim271]

He obviously does not want a snall pot here. The best you could be hoping for is a worse pair or somehow a flush draw (maybe with a pair.) Don't make big pots without big hands, fold here and look for a better spot imo... you aren't pot commited in any way.

 

[c9h13no3]

Guys, you know on the turn villains will pay to draw, but they won't pay anything on the end...