$2 NLHE STT: An appropriate risk on the bubble?

[Lilli3]

$2 NLHESTT: An appropriate risk on the bubble?

I played this hand on the bubble today and I'm wondering if it made sense to do so. The short stacks were very short, as you can see. I'm unsure whether I should have just waited it out or gone for this hand so I'd be poised for playing to win after the bubble.

Opinions, please?

full tilt poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 971880
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: t1520 6.33 BBs
SB: t6765 28.19 BBs
Hero (BB): t3835 15.98 BBs
CO: t1380 5.75 BBs

Pre Flop: (t360) Hero is BB with K

A

2 folds, SB raises to t720, Hero calls t480

Flop: (t1440) 3

A

4

(2 players)
SB bets t1200, Hero raises to t2400, SB raises to t3600, Hero calls t715 all in

Turn: (t7670) 9

(2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t7670) J

(2 players - 1 is all in)

 

[Rldetheflop]

you should be shoving this pf. Bigstack should be raising pretty wide here and you do have some fold equity. yes we are going to hate to see AA or KK here which will happen sometimes but ya gotta get it in here.

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

SB bets t1200, Hero raises to t2400

This is another point in the hand where you should have shoved. You had only 715 left after this raise which you will have to put in anyway. You're just making the turn cheaper for your opponent.

You'll find a lot of the players at these stakes who bet/raise relentlessly and only realize the size of their stack when they face one themselves. Don't be one of those players!

 

[imwatcher]

I think that you definately have to get your money in here, and overall it should be a +ev play, the big stack will be happy with AQ A10 etc, if he hits a two pair thats bad luck, but more often then not you will be ahead, win the hand, then quite often win the stt.

 

[Lilli3]

He did river, holding AJ, knocking me out. So what I'm reading here is that even shoving pre-flop or on the flop, it was a hand to not avoid playing? The situation of those two small stacks with, at least, one bound to go out soon is why I'm questioning the situation.

 

[baudib1]

ya all-in pre is the better course, on the flop obviously never folding.

 

[baudib1]

oh, one thing that should not be overlooked here.

If SB open shoves all-in preflop, this is a snap fold.

 

[Lilli3]

Ok. That makes sense. Because of his potential pocket pairs and/or the vulnerability of my smaller stack?

 

[cjatud2012]

Ok. That makes sense. Because of his potential pocket pairs and/or the vulnerability of my smaller stack?

it's because of the two other stacks, who both have ~6bb's. Since you're pretty comfortable and they're more likely to bust soon, we have to call pretty narrow. It's not as bad here as it would be if both villains had >3bb's, but it's still a fold with AK I think.

I don't hate flatting pre, I think I'd prefer a 3-bet but I don't really know, I don't think either play is awful. As played, check-raise all-in on the flop.

 

[Lilli3]

it's because of the two other stacks, who both have ~6bb's. Since you're pretty comfortable and they're more likely to bust soon, we have to call pretty narrow. It's not as bad here as it would be if both villains had >3bb's, but it's still a fold with AK I think.

I don't hate flatting pre, I think I'd prefer a 3-bet but I don't really know, I don't think either play is awful. As played, check-raise all-in on the flop.

It's a fold with AK if he shoves preflop? Or even as the bet he actually made? I suppose this is the crux of my question, should I have played the hand in the first place...considering the short stacks.

I called his bet pf because, right or wrong, I was nervous about getting in over my head with AK. I thought that if I missed the flop, I would just fold if he bet.

 

[baudib1]

in this situation, with two shortstacks likely to blind out soon, your calling range for an all-in by the SB has to be incredibly tight, KK+ rougly.

 

[cjatud2012]

It's a fold with AK if he shoves preflop? Or even as the bet he actually made? I suppose this is the crux of my question, should I have played the hand in the first place...considering the short stacks.

I called his bet pf because, right or wrong, I was nervous about getting in over my head with AK. I thought that if I missed the flop, I would just fold if he bet.

Since he didn't shove pre, only raised, flatting is fine especially with position I think. If you miss then you can muck it easily. If you hit 95% of the time you'll have the best hand, can go all-in on the flop, and be done with your decision making. Hence why AK is teh powerful

But yeah, it'd be a different story if he open shoved instead of open raised. Have you heard of SNGWiz? I'll post a screeny of this hand in just a min with SNGWiz, basically it helps you analyze the $EV of push/fold spots using ICM. On the bubble, there are some pretty drastic ICM considerations, so it's crucial to use SNGWiz effectively to understand those dynamics. There are times where more than ICM needs to be considered, but it still goes without saying how important it is to understand certain aspects of ICM, such as calling narrow in this spot.

in this situation, with two shortstacks likely to blind out soon, your calling range for an all-in by the SB has to be incredibly tight, KK+ rougly.

I don't know if it'd be that tight, granted you only said roughly lol. Like I said above, I'll throw up a screeny in just a minute with the range Wiz suggests.

 

[cjatud2012]

Okay, two shots here:

1) SB is pushing the Wiz suggested range of 12% of hands (Wiz's default modeling isn't all that accurate, but that's not the point here). Based on the dynamics of the bubble, we can only profitably call with AA, and it's not even close. It's a loss of 6.88% equity to call here, which in a prize pool of $18 is $1.24, which is hugeeeeeeeeee.

2) SB is now shoving any two cards. Here it's still awful to call with AK, although much less awful than before, at 3.32%. Our calling range has become TT+ now.

So yeah, as baudib said, we snapfold AK here. I maybe thought we could call here sometimes, however I was very wrong obviously lol. It's really a sin to call here because of the probability of one of the other stacks busting, since they're both relatively small.

 

[baudib1]

SB should be pushing ATC here assuming BB knows this. This is the whole mystery left in SnGs, judging calling/shoving ranges.

 

[cjatud2012]

SB should be pushing ATC here assuming BB knows this. This is the whole mystery left in SnGs, judging calling/shoving ranges.

+1

 

[Rldetheflop]

it's because of the two other stacks, who both have ~6bb's. Since you're pretty comfortable and they're more likely to bust soon, we have to call pretty narrow. It's not as bad here as it would be if both villains had >3bb's, but it's still a fold with AK I think.

I don't hate flatting pre, I think I'd prefer a 3-bet but I don't really know, I don't think either play is awful. As played, check-raise all-in on the flop.

I just hate flatting here. I think we are getting so many folds to a shove even with ICM taxing us big time here I think it would be profitable.


On folding to a shove: I also would think a call here would be ok since sb is shoving so wide here however after looking at your wiz shots(lol) I will definitely reconsider this. However does wiz take into consideration that a win here puts us as the chip leader and would allow us to be bully on the bubble.

actually now that I think about it 2 players behind are very short so I guess we couldnt bully that much.

 

[Rldetheflop]

SB should be pushing ATC here assuming BB knows this. This is the whole mystery left in SnGs, judging calling/shoving ranges.

assuming we are the big stack in the SB and BB should be folding pretty much everything so my question even though most players at this level dont know how tight they should be calling we should still shove ATC even though they WILL call wider than they should because then they are making the mistake?

The reason I am asking I guess Is I am raising pretty wide here but usually just min-raise/fold here without a hand. If I shove here everytime I will get called quite a bit I am sure with 88+ AJ+ w/e far wider than I should but thats ok right since villain is making the -ev play?

 

[baudib1]

Nah, if you think that BB is going to call really wide then you have to dump the worst hands. The problem is if the BB calls with like or even hands as strong as JJ, he/she is costing himself/herself massive equity but also hurting your equity.

I do think that at a higher buy-in with competent players, you can shove close to 100% profitably. At this level i don't see someone folding something like JJ and they will make massively bad calls with much worse (in a similar spot, someone with 2nd chip stack called with QTo against me the other day) so you do want to have hands that have a semblance of equity vs. their calling range.

Raise-folding is an interesting idea but I think we want more FE than anything else.

 

[cjatud2012]

I just hate flatting here. I think we are getting so many folds to a shove even with ICM taxing us big time here I think it would be profitable.

It depends on the villain, if he were a pretty reasonable player then yes shoving over is the superior play, but if he is a moron and will call a 3-bet shove here with T8s, etc., shoving would not be as good.

On folding to a shove: I also would think a call here would be ok since sb is shoving so wide here however after looking at your wiz shots(lol) I will definitely reconsider this. However does wiz take into consideration that a win here puts us as the chip leader and would allow us to be bully on the bubble.

actually now that I think about it 2 players behind are very short so I guess we couldnt bully that much.

You're right, it doesn't consider that stuff, the most you could do was lower your edge since you'd be more inclined to take a -$EV spot if it allowed you to take more +$EV spots in the future. However, I don't really see this as being one of those types of spots, though.

 

[Rldetheflop]

Nah, if you think that BB is going to call really wide then you have to dump the worst hands. The problem is if the BB calls with like or even hands as strong as JJ, he/she is costing himself/herself massive equity but also hurting your equity.

I do think that at a higher buy-in with competent players, you can shove close to 100% profitably. At this level i don't see someone folding something like JJ and they will make massively bad calls with much worse (in a similar spot, someone with 2nd chip stack called with QTo against me the other day) so you do want to have hands that have a semblance of equity vs. their calling range.

Raise-folding is an interesting idea but I think we want more FE than anything else.

yea I got to thinking about this and I guess the problem is I was assuming villians ev loss is our ev gain but this is false logic.


well in my experience in this scenario people(most people I know there are clowns) are only playing the strongest of hands so if they dont fold to the min raise they wont fold to a shove.

 

[Lilli3]

Ok. Some of this is going to take a while to digest. I'm not an absolute beginner but my poker math skills are in very early development so some of this is over my head for now.

I think I get the gist, though. Generally, it seems that playing the hand was a mistake because of the two short stacks involved in the calculation? The ev is lower because of that?

 

[cjatud2012]

Ok. Some of this is going to take a while to digest. I'm not an absolute beginner but my poker math skills are in very early development so some of this is over my head for now.

I think I get the gist, though. Generally, it seems that playing the hand was a mistake because of the two short stacks involved in the calculation? The ev is lower because of that?

nonono, only if the SB open shoved would it be disastrous. Playing the hand as is would be fine, since he raised instead of shoved.

Lemme PM you a link, I think it'll help you out a lot.

 

[Zync]

I would have shove preflop here.

Concerning calling a shove, I would also fold in this situation.

Being one of the 2 small stacks, would it be a call on the BB behind a shove?

 

[cjatud2012]

I would have shove preflop here.

Concerning calling a shove, I would also fold in this situation.

Being one of the 2 small stacks, would it be a call on the BB behind a shove?

That's actually an interesting question, according to SNGWiz if we switch stack sizes with the button, then we can call with AK as long the SB is pushing more than the top ~18% of hands. If villain is pushing 35%, we can call with 99+, AQo+, AJs+. If he's pushing 100% we can call 66+, ATo+, A7s+, KQo, KTs+. Interesting result (all of these ranges are purely ICM based, you could make other considerations but I haven't done so).

 

[BeaverTrump]

Your opponents were not so short stacks, and therefore meaningless to sit and wait for their departure was no. Therefore, the AK in the BB you should probably just play against all-in raiser at the MB and everything to put himself in front of a difficult decision on the flop. Topics bnolee reserves could just steal your blinds using the position and your stack.