$2 NLHE: 180mtt bet for value?

[Teebone]

$2 NL HE: 180mtt bet for value?

full tilt poker Game #16226313019: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (119617245), Table 4 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:54:49 ET - 2009/11/22
Seat 1: godosh (3,730)
Seat 2: Rastayann (6,845)
Seat 3: bigal1988 (6,910)
Seat 4: magger1 (7,360)
Seat 5: Rubicus (2,685)
Seat 6: Teebone101 (9,870)
Seat 8: Kris1122 (2,280)
Seat 9: load it up (9,532)
load it up posts the small blind of 60
godosh posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Teebone101 [Qh Qd]
Rastayann folds
bigal1988 folds
magger1 folds
Rubicus folds
Teebone101 raises to 480
Kris1122 folds
load it up calls 420
godosh folds
*** FLOP *** [8h 7s 5h]
load it up checks
Teebone101 bets 600
load it up calls 600
*** TURN *** [8h 7s 5h] [5d]
load it up checks
Teebone101 bets 1,560
load it up has 15 seconds left to act
load it up has requested TIME
load it up calls 1,560
*** RIVER *** [8h 7s 5h 5d] [Tc]
load it up checks
Teebone101????????


i have no reads, i felt like i have the best hand. What do u guys do here?

 

[GordonStr222]

Hey Teebone101....

I would defitinely bet my hand for value here... I would bet any where from 2,000$ to 2,700$ into the 5,400$ pot... If you're opponent did have something like JJ,99,66, 44... You have him beat.. I think the hands you would mostly fear in this situation would be Pocket T's getting there on the river or something like A5 or some 5 suited connector.. I think most players in this level would defitinely check raise an over pair to this flop, set and turn if they had something strong.. AA or KK unlikely without the PF raise or strength showed.. It's hard to say with out any reads of you're opponent how loose or tight his calling range is but a value bet sounds good to me here... If you're opponent does make a crying call here with what he thinks is best he still would have 4,000$ to 4,700$ chips left...

 

[Jillychemung]

+1 ^^^^^^^

 

[cjatud2012]

Maybe I'm on my own for this one, but I don't know if you can really bet for value here. IMO it's just really unlikely he's calling you here with a hand that's worse than yours.

I know your raise was a good size, but the villain is in the SB, and at micro stakes, that makes his range pretty wide. A whacky hand here could make him trips, a straight (although unlikely), possibly a boat, etc. He could have much less than that, but if he did, I just don't know that he'd call off a bet on the river.

The way the villain played the hand is sort of weird too. He's been very passive this whole hand, but calling the big bet on the turn worries me. He probably doesn't have a draw there with just one card to come, so he may be hoping to trap. I could be very wrong, of course, and he could be calling with A8 or something, but still, I'm just not very comfortable here.

That being said, a check raise here would put your tournament in jeapordy. If this happens and you decide to fold (or if he flats but still has you beat), your stack is around 5000, plus or minus. If you check and lose, your around 7000, which is not bad compared to some of the other stacks. Of course, if you do win the showdown after you check, you still become the chip leader without having risked any more chips.

Others may feel differently than I do in this spot, but I just fear the possibility of some sort of trap here too much to put much more at stake. Hopefully this will at least spark some thoughtful debate, which usually helps us all learn more anyway.

 

[bolda3]

I check it right behind here. If your opponent did have an over pair their preflop and post flop play would probally be more agressive. They could be slow playing a big hand however, so I check it here.

 

[Teebone]

Those were my feelings exactly, when i bet i feel im only getting called down by a hand better then mine.


Isnt there a saying u fire one bullet it hits u in the foot the second and third bullet is in the head or something like that? Or is that referring only to bluffs...

Anyway if i get called twice im goin to be curious.




Should i post results
?

 

[S93]

I kinda agree with cjd here.
While i do agree it would be strange for him to get to the river with stuff like FH/overpairs/straight with out raising a single street this is a 2$ 180 and there is a tone of passivity in them.

What hand can we get calls from that we beat? 99/JJ,A8 and maybe 87 that doesnt give up when counterfited?
I think where ahead of villains range on the river but thats because most of his range are gonna be missed draws,weak pair+missed draw and some random "pretty" overs he decited to chase down with, non of witch where extracting any value from on the river.

meh it might be close and i might be a huge nit but im checking back here, percerving my stack and trying to avoid value cutting my self.

 

[shanks99]

I agree with those that say that if you value bet here, you're opening up the pot to a lot of things that you might not want.

1) Best case is that villain calls with a worse hand, but is that really likely? What would he show? A8, 10-9 (busted OESD), maybe JJ or 99? Highly unlikely I think.

2) Next best case is villain folds holding a better hand, but is that really likely? Probably not. I wouldn't fold AA or KK here, and certainly wouldn't have played out the hand in this fashion anyways.

3) Villain folds a busted flush draw. But then he's not calling your value bet on the river with a busted flush draw or a 10-9 OESD, is he?

4) Villain check raises, which puts you in a very tough spot. Calling a big reraise and losing cripples you.

Of the 4 scenarios, I think #4 may not be most probable, but it is certainly most damaging to your ability to win.

One other note, has this player been playing promptly and not timing out? The reason I ask is because he called time on the turn. Taking time to think usually means either trying to figure out a tough call (i.e. SD or FD), or trying to figure out how to play a monster like trips or a full house.

My vote here would be to go check check, if your QQ held up, great, you won a huge pot. If not, then you minimized the damage on the river.

 

[Teebone]

I check behind, Villian shows J-J For The Lose.

 

[cjatud2012]

Dang, that's too bad. IMO your move remains correct, especially if your opponent was intending to check raise.

 

[WiZZiM]

Maybe I'm on my own for this one, but I don't know if you can really bet for value here. IMO it's just really unlikely he's calling you here with a hand that's worse than yours.

$2 tourney, its likely he gets calls from any pair

 

[Greyshadows]

I would have checked as well, the last thing i like to do is to bet when i have 0 information about my opponent hand. My immediate thoughts would have been a busted flush draw in which case he isnt really calling anything and other then that there are alot of scare cards on the flop him slow playing a 5 or check raising Pocket tens hell even higher overpairs are possible. In a long tournament like the 2.2 i like to keep the pots small unless im 100% sure im holding the nuts.