$2 donkament bubble, 99 vs big stack

[OzExorcist]

Villain has only just sat down at our table. He raised the first hand he played, then raised this one immediately afterwards. Rest of the table has been playing very conservative over the bubble, I've pretty much doubled my stack with steals and semibluffs in the past 20 minutes.

We're two eliminations from the money. I read the villain for a steal, figure I'll flat call with position and try to take the pot as long as the board comes reasonably safe.

What kind of hands are we reading the villain for on the river and, most importantly, do we call?

full tilt poker Game #8219128370: $2 + $0.25 Tournament (62416577), Table 9 - 150/300 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:11:13 ET - 2008/09/25
Seat 2: roonmoon10 (8,905)
Seat 3: marusha007 (8,545)
Seat 4: EscoSenator (10,680)
Seat 5: Empton (3,695)
Seat 6: bogn (6,870)
Seat 7: normahl (35,495)
Seat 8: OzExorcist (8,745)
Seat 9: Eaglesrick (2,615)
roonmoon10 antes 25
marusha007 antes 25
EscoSenator antes 25
Empton antes 25
bogn antes 25
normahl antes 25
OzExorcist antes 25
Eaglesrick antes 25
roonmoon10 posts the small blind of 150
marusha007 posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [9h 9s]
EscoSenator folds
Empton folds
bogn folds
normahl raises to 1,100
OzExorcist calls 1,100
Eaglesrick folds
roonmoon10 has 15 seconds left to act
roonmoon10 folds
marusha007 folds
*** FLOP *** [Kc Kh 3h]
normahl checks
OzExorcist bets 1,800
normahl calls 1,800
*** TURN *** [Kc Kh 3h] 3♣
normahl checks
OzExorcist checks
*** RIVER *** [Kc Kh 3h 3c] 2♣
normahl bets 3,600
OzExorcist has 15 seconds left to act
OzExorcist

 

[Mehman]

I'd say we are calling here we are getting ~3 to 1 on our money.

Of course we are /crying at his K-rag or random 3 on the occasion but with his chip stack and the raise in mid position just on the bubble we are seeing mid pairs (44-88) or A-rag here more often then not in my opinion.

 

[S93]

Call imo.
Where wa/wb so puting our last few chips in serves litle purpose but calling might still be profitable.
Kings and flushes might take this line but your check on the turn increses his bluff range alot,also the fact he called your flop bet makes a busted heart draw more likly then a hit club draw(he might also have had a 3 and gotten lucky).


Might be a stupid move but i think im calling here,his bluff range is just so huge.

 

[Cowboy8112]

I call here, I doubt that he has anything higher than A rag (pray the rag is not a 3). He is afraid of the K. I would not suggest comming over the top.

 

[josh_dei8]

I'm calling but that is why I would probably lose here. It's bubble time, he figures you are not risking your stack to miss a pay day. He will bet big to try and push you pot, figuring you will fold to hit the money

 

[jdeliverer]

I agree with everything said, and you will still have 2k left if you lose, which is probably enough to fold a couple hands into the money.

 

[NineLions]

With his stack size, the range for his preflop raise is anything, and probably not much narrower for a check/call on the flop either given the flop. At this level of buyin, when you check the turn I don't know if his river bet narrows his range much either, in other words he's betting because you didn't bet the turn more than for any other reason.

If he has nothing or just an Ace, I might expect closer to a pot sized bet though. His bet size might indicate a slowplayed K, or pocket pair bigger than a 3 where he thinks that he's ahead of you but is not sure.
I probably call 'cause I'm not sure either.

 

[OzExorcist]

Cool, looks unianimous for calling - any other comments before we do results (assuming they even matter in this case)?

 

[switch0723]

ship or fold preflop imo, decide then and there whether you want to squeeze into the money before putting your chips on the line, or whether you want to make the right decision with the likely best hand and some fold equity.

I would push preflop but as played i play it exactly the same and call the river since villain will be bluffing here with an ace / lower pp enough

 

[blazed98]

i say call with 99 on the like they said it really smart thing to call

 

[OmGiSAburel]

i put him on a bluff since he checked the turn and didn't over bet the pot he even had a small pair or a suited rag. He outplayed you since he had a big stack. I would call

 

[MeTim]

Push

I would have probably pushed preflop if I thought he was bluffing. If he folds Ill take what I can get. Other wise, Bad luck. Just me though. I don't allways play by the book.

 

[TheHoag57]

I'm out of there, especially considering where you were in the tournament. Tears flow either way my friend.

 

[OzExorcist]

Interesting to read a couple of opinions on shoving preflop - I'm kinda ashamed to admit that never even occurred to me.

I think the only thing really counting against that is it's literally the villain's second hand at the table. The fact that he's got a big stack and raised the first two hands suggests that he could be raising with nothing, but do we want to put our tournament life on the line with it?

The reason I think I preferred the flat call against an unknown is that we can probably achieve the same result with less risk by flat calling. Preflop, we're probably getting called by AT+ / maybe even something like KQ and do I really wanna take a flip like that on the bubble? Postflop, however, it's easy to win the same amount of money with less risk when those hands miss.

As it turns out, I was up against garbage preflop.

I, like many others above, figured just by the texture of the board I was more likely to be up against Ax or a lower pair or a stone cold bluff than I was a king (or a three).

So I called the river, and villain turned over K3o

 

[Dank Hugh]

I say it's an awfully tough call to make, with the bubble so close.
I think I would pass this one by. You said you had done well over the last 20 min, why not let this one go, make the $$, then battle on