$2.75 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Rebuy: FT - 3 left - Hero bluff jam the river

C

ciriciric

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This hand is from the final table of 2.75 tourney on ACR.3 players left. 500 prizepool: 1st-100; 2nd-65; 3rd- 46.

Villain became a huge chip leader at one point when there were 6 or 7 left and he has been playing like a maniac since. Playing 9 out of 10 hands raising pre and attacking for 3 streets almost every time since we get down to 4.

About 10-15 hands ago I got lucky and got tripled up with AK and I have been card dead before and since that hand for some time and didn't play a single hand except defending BB a few times and folding after flop c-bets.

I noticed that he would make about 75% pot size bets on the turn and the river if he is really strong. So, I was pretty sure that he was either bluffing or had a marginal made hand.
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/3qT4awM


Although this went great for me and eventually I won the tourney, later on when I checked it out, I felt that maybe it was very bad move from my side considering the ICM and huge payout jumps for 2nd and 1st. Considering all the villain tendencies mentioned above, this should probably be a fold at turn or river, especially with another player who is shorter than Hero? Should I ever or how often should I risk my stack in some spots like this where I am convinced that majority of the time I will get the villain to fold?
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Standard defend when playing shorthanded, but A2o is never a hand, I am excited to see a flop with.

Flop
The issue with rag aces is, that when they miss, they often miss completely. That was exactly the case here, since you did not even have any kind of backdoor draws. You could improve on an A of course, but even then you would not know, where you are, since he could easily have a Q or an A with a better kicker. So I would just fold now and look to preserve my stack. You have 30BB, which is a very solid stack, so there is no need to get involved in a big pot out of position with such a bad hand. If he really is that far out of line, you can find a ton of better spots to take him on later. Or hope he busts the other guy, so you get a big payjump.

Turn
Since I would have folded already on the flop, I would obviously also fold now.

River
Now you decided to check-jam and turn your hand into a bluff, and this really makes no sense. If you called flop and turn, it should be because, you felt, your hand had enough showdown value against a very wide and bluff heavy range. And in that case the J on the river did not really change anything.

Sure he could have hit it, but he could also have a bunch of other hands, he is still bluffing with. So as played just call again and hope to get shown some random bluff. He gave you around 4:1, so you only need to be good 1 out of 5 times, if you call. Its also not great, that you hold Ad in your hand, because that means, he cant have picked up the backdoor nut flushdraw, which would be some of the more reasonable hands to take for a tripple barrel.

So you have bad removal, and if your hand had enough showdown value to call flop and turn, it still had enough showdown value to call river. But really I would have picked another hand to make a stand with. Even just an ace with a better kicker, since it feels really stupid to call here and then lose to A8, which he thought, he was bluffing with.
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

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I like pre-flop and flop. Ace-high has too much equity against a wide range on this dry flop to give up facing a 1/3 pot cbet IMO.

Generally I would fold the turn when he barrels a higher % of the pot.

As played, the river is a pretty gutsy play! I like it though. It sounds like you had a good read; his sizing looks weak; and you could definitely rep having a queen.

Nice hand :)
 
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300HPGOD

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When we call here on the flop (as I think we should) then I also think we should be floating most flops knowing that villain is basically playing with 70-80% of their hands here (unless we know something otherwise about them). If I knew I was going against an 80% range with an ace and paired flop came I would not be folding. The turn is a tougher spot since you have to really make your decision here. If you call then I think you call most river bets. I do like calling there even though you could be behind but against that wide of a range (assuming my ranging is correct) I think this is a call down hand. The river play is baffling to me. Why would you jam there? You are playing your hand as a bluff catcher and this type of board lends itself to any pair hand being perceived as stronger than normal (due to its heads up and board is paired) so I doubt a lot of pairs will fold here. Yes, 5x folds but that is such a small part of their range. You're either getting snapped off and out of the tourney, you're getting a worse hand to fold in which you would have won the same amount if you just called, or that tiny sliver of the time you are getting a better hand to fold. I like just calling there and using your ace high as a bluff catcher. If you're wrong at least you still have 16-17 BB left.
 
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fundiver199

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I like pre-flop and flop. Ace-high has too much equity against a wide range on this dry flop to give up facing a 1/3 pot cbet IMO. Generally I would fold the turn when he barrels a higher % of the pot.

Looking at it again I agree. We need to peel the flop and at least put him to the test to fire a bigger turn bet. We do beat all his K high or worse, and a maniacal player is almost certainly C-betting (to) wide on most boards including this one.

As played, the river is a pretty gutsy play! I like it though. It sounds like you had a good read; his sizing looks weak; and you could definitely rep having a queen.

I still dont like the river line. Even a maniac is probably not tripple barreling worse than a J for value, and I dont think, most maniacs are able to bet for value and then fold to a raise. So by raising we are getting him to call us with most of the hands, we lose to, and fold those hands we beat. Maybe we can get him to fold some better A high or fold him off a chopper with A2-A4 or A6, but thats about the only thing, this bluff achieve in my opinion.
 
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