$2,500 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: facing a polarized 2x pot river bet with trips

Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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this is a live $2,500 buy in event. we are only a few levels in and myself and the particular villain in this hand have run up nice big stacks.

I have about 162k which is 135bb and villain slightly covers me. at this point average stack is something like 70k for 65bb or so.


it folds to my CO and I have :kh4::jd4: I make it 2,700 at 600/1,200/1,200 bb ante.

only the bb defends and this is our villain with about 140-150bb. he is a good player and while a fearless and thinking player I have found him to be somewhat straightforward in the past, though admittedly I haven't played a ton of hands with him and I see he is consistently getting good results.

pot contains 7,200 flop is :ac4::js4::9d4:

he checks and I check back. I think I should probably be cbetting small on this flop, as I have a range advantage but I don't want to play huge pots vs him and I am happy to just get 1 or 2 streets later with an underrepped hand. This is probably a mistake in my thinking.

Turn is the :8d4: pot still contains 7,200 and he bets 2,000. I call

river is the :js4: pot contains 11,200 and I am thinking aobut how much to value bet when I realize he is tanking and he is going to bet. he tanks for longer than average and then leads 24,000 into the 11,200.

gulp. I tank. I am never raising now. this is a simple call or fold decision.

thoughts?
 
Gohaku94

Gohaku94

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I am calling there. Gonna be beat sometime by QT or some random full house which are not so many of the but you gonna beat QJ and JT and all the As that he would do this with which is alot of hands
 
H

HG83

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The way the hands played out Js is more in your range than the villains, and seeing how his bet more than 2x pot villain's range very very polarized. Defending from the BB he has 16 combos of QTo and 16 combos of T7. I cant see him having any bluffs in this spot. Maybe villain thinks they are betting for value with there Ax hear. I might have given this player A9,A8 on the turn but once the board pairs and villain bets so big its gotta be QTo, T7 or J9,J8 combo. There isn't that many combos of J9,J8 or even AJ.
What bluffs does he have hear which has no show down value, KT (you block that also), Tx,
9x 8x has show down value and are they going to lead on the turn?. So i can't see the villain having too many bluffs hear, if any.
 
H

HG83

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Maybe villain does have JT, QJ hear also sometimes like Gohaku has mentioned, but again you block a lot of his Jx hands.
 
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Madsaac

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Tough hand. I would probably call with only some confidence, you beat so many hands however that small turn bet is interesting.


And I think you need to bet the flop, you're blocking plenty of his value and under repping your hand against a 'fearless' player can lead to a tough spots.
 
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fundiver199

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I agree, we cannot raise, but we can certainly not fold either. We checked back flop (which I like) and just called a very small bet on the turn, so what hands can we even have here, which are better than KJ? Probably none, so if we fold, we are folding 100% of our range, which is obviously a huge issue against any kind of thinking opponent.

Also I dont find his story all that convincing. If he had a straight or a set on the turn, why would he bet so small and then go crazy, when the board pair on the river? To me that make no sense, so I would expect to see some busted draw or even another JX here way more often than something, that has us beat.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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thanks guys. I did end up tank calling. I can only make this call because I know villain to be a "good" player so he won't usually have 0 bluffs in any spot....when I added to the fact that I beat a tiny fractin of his value range I made the call. and he showed JTo and we win.

it was very close for me. as for his play, I like his river bet as he blocks both straights and boats and I think he is trying to get hero called by Ax by making his size look "bluffy".....however I would have folded an ace (as I nearly folded this hand)
 
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Sidetracked

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I'm probably hating it but calling anyway.
 
TheDude6622

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That was the move to make. It give you trips with the best kicker without giving you a full house and beats so much of your opponents hands. The over bet is saying I have a good hand but I'm afraid of the call. Just have to throw in the call and pray they have the hand they have. Well played though!
 
JBGoode

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this is a live $2,500 buy in event. we are only a few levels in and myself and the particular villain in this hand have run up nice big stacks.

I have about 162k which is 135bb and villain slightly covers me. at this point average stack is something like 70k for 65bb or so.


it folds to my CO and I have :kh4::jd4: I make it 2,700 at 600/1,200/1,200 bb ante.

only the bb defends and this is our villain with about 140-150bb. he is a good player and while a fearless and thinking player I have found him to be somewhat straightforward in the past, though admittedly I haven't played a ton of hands with him and I see he is consistently getting good results.

pot contains 7,200 flop is :ac4::js4::9d4:

he checks and I check back. I think I should probably be cbetting small on this flop, as I have a range advantage but I don't want to play huge pots vs him and I am happy to just get 1 or 2 streets later with an underrepped hand. This is probably a mistake in my thinking.

Turn is the :8d4: pot still contains 7,200 and he bets 2,000. I call

river is the :js4: pot contains 11,200 and I am thinking aobut how much to value bet when I realize he is tanking and he is going to bet. he tanks for longer than average and then leads 24,000 into the 11,200.

gulp. I tank. I am never raising now. this is a simple call or fold decision.

thoughts?
I love this!!!! We have actually been working on overbet rivers a lot over the last few weeks.... what we have realized is they are either nutted, or they have something like Jx, 2 pair (that's not top top).... this is very Vil dependent, and I would have to have seen him do with with a semi bluff previously to gage how wide they are doing this.... so if you havent seen it before, or they have only showed the nuts or close to it I would just let it go. Your super deep, there is no point in getting into a pissing contest with the other big stack at the table....

Now if I have seen Vil do this with a missed draw, but blocks the nuts.... I would probably make this call with the J....

If I've seen him make this move with a blocker to the straight, but with middle pair.... I would call if I had an A....

Hope that helps....
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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For anyone who is interested to hear some more in depth analysis I was a guest on the "thinking poker podcast" with Andrew Brokos and we discuss this hand for a good 20 minutes or so. Results are revealed and also it's just one of the better poker podcasts out there. It is rated #1 or #2 poker podcast by most podcast rating surveys so it's just a great one to subscribe to anyways if you are looking to absorb some poker knowledge while driving or working out.

Here is the link to my episode on their webpage and you can also find it on pretty much any podcast App on your phone.

http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2019/09/episode-308-jacki-burkhart/
 
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JoeKampman

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For anyone who is interested to hear some more in depth analysis I was a guest on the "thinking poker podcast" with Andrew Brokos and we discuss this hand for a good 20 minutes or so. Results are revealed and also it's just one of the better poker podcasts out there. It is rated #1 or #2 poker podcast by most podcast rating surveys so it's just a great one to subscribe to anyways if you are looking to absorb some poker knowledge while driving or working out.

Here is the link to my episode on their webpage and you can also find it on pretty much any podcast app on your phone.

http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2019/09/episode-308-jacki-burkhart/


I will definitely be checking out this podcast. Thanks for recommending it:D
 
V

Veritas

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not sure if cardschat is the Right place to ask for a Hand Analysis in a 2.5k buy-in Tournament.
barley anyone is playing those stakes so People have no idea how to Play in high stakes (me included).


2+2 Forum has a mid-high stakes Tournament section with a few good high stakes Player. if you are Looking for a decent Hand Analysis, this should be the place to ask for it.
 
theANMATOR

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Higher stakes than I play but I don't think the stakes matter much just for making comments about this situation.

I don't fold sets - so this is an easy call - expecting to win about 70% of the time. I hero call and loose about 30% of the time with sets - so it's a winning call.

The over bet makes the opponents hand polarized, although - maybe he's 'thinking' you think this is the case - and thinking semi-bluffing with a marginal made hand - will make you think about the polarized range.

I put villain on two pair 8/9 A/9 A/8 - thinking he was thinking I would think he was polarized - maybe that's too much thinking - but you described the opponent as that type of player - so it directly lead me to leveling.


Good call - nice to see a strong set win vs a semi-bluffed river, marginal hand.
 
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P86

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I think it s a good call obviously since you won but most of the times villqin is defending with a wide range and he is putting hero on Ax but still i think his raise is suspitious
 
F

Flushdaneyy

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call

i would call at this position in his range is max A8s or a straight with T7s you're leading with three of a kind
 
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Madsaac

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For anyone who is interested to hear some more in depth analysis I was a guest on the "thinking poker podcast" with Andrew Brokos and we discuss this hand for a good 20 minutes or so. Results are revealed and also it's just one of the better poker podcasts out there. It is rated #1 or #2 poker podcast by most podcast rating surveys so it's just a great one to subscribe to anyways if you are looking to absorb some poker knowledge while driving or working out.

Here is the link to my episode on their webpage and you can also find it on pretty much any podcast app on your phone.

http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2019/09/episode-308-jacki-burkhart/

Thanks for that, good stuff
 
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