$2.25 NLHE STT Turbo: Chance to resteal over fish

[MuscleMan76]

Villain is running a 50/15/56 over 26 hands(not many, but still)

I don't like flatting, nor do I expect that to be the right move.
I want to raise, but i think any raise will have me committed on the flop if he flats.

Thoughts?

Full Tilt - $2+0.25 $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (Turbo) (#231818665) - Blinds: 50/100 No Limit Hold'em (6 players)
Full Tilt Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB: t1,180
BB Hero: t1,985
UTG: t4,760
MP: t1,285
CO: t1,215
BTN: t3,075

Pre-flop: (t150) Hero is BB and dealt
3 folds, BTN raises to t200, SB folds, Hero ???

 

[DetroitJimmy]

I don't mind a re-steal here. 20BBs is a good re-steal shove range. If you had position you might be able to 3 bet without shoving. In this case though and with known stats either shove or fold and I'll lean toward shove.

 

[WiZZiM]

In your HUD, it's really handy to include some sort of steal stat. that will give you a far better idea if this player is raising from late position a lot, otherwise, this is generally not in my stealing range against a random player. This player is likely to call us down here a lot of the time with Ax type hands as well.

Also, you generally want the pot to be around 20% of your stack to even make a re-steal worth while. So the pot is 350, which is pretty close to the 20% rule i use. WIth players like this, i'd assume he isn't raising a very wide range, and is likely calling most of his range, so it's a pretty easy fold for me. You don't really need to get involved here, you have around a 1k chip lead over three players, so you are in comfortable third place.

I repeat, having stats like 'steal %' and 'Fold to steal %' are going to be really beneficial with these sorts of decisions.

 

[MuscleMan76]

I did recently add some steal stats.
Villain was 33% steal (1/3), so I figured this wasn't large enough of a sample to make a decision based on that.

As for the 'Fold to steal %' stat, would that include folding to a re-steal? Or would I have to look at a 'fold to 3-bet' stat?


Btw, his 'fold to 3-bet%' was 0% (0 for 1). Again, not sure if this is useful.

 

[WiZZiM]

Perhaps not for this particular situation, but if you move up in stakes and start to play the same players a whole bunch, those stats are really important.

So let me ask you this question, assume he is raising stuff like AX and pairs and decent broadway, how much of that is a bad player folding when he has a big stack?

And you want the fold to re-steal stat.

 

[MuscleMan76]

I guess if he's folding anything at all of his range, it's just the very bottom.
So, that would mean I should only be raising for value against players like this? So maybe my range should be TT+, AQ+? What about some mid pairs where I'm most likely flipping?

I guess I just saw the 50% VPiP and figured I could be ahead of his range.

 

[WiZZiM]

I guess if he's folding anything at all of his range, it's just the very bottom.
So, that would mean I should only be raising for value against players like this? So maybe my range should be TT+, AQ+? What about some mid pairs where I'm most likely flipping?

I guess I just saw the 50% VPiP and figured I could be ahead of his range.

Yeah, you have to be careful, he's obviously a bad player, but vpip and PFR are two differant things. He's limping or calling 50% of hands but only raising 15% of hands. While he's likely raising wider with the button KQ is still not really ahead of much.