$2.25 NLHE STT Turbo: bvb on bubble

cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Villain is pretty bad, something like 30/15. Our hand has some value against a random range but it's not like I'm ever crushing, plus villain is never folding here and I'm pretty short myself.

Thoughts??

Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|250/500 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (SB): 2,120.00
BB: 1,370.00
UTG: 8,780.00
BTN: 1,230.00

Hero posts SB 250.00, BB posts BB 500.00

Pre Flop: (750.00) Hero has K:diamond: 2:spade:

fold, fold, Hero ???
 
Rldetheflop

Rldetheflop

Head Ranger
Villain is pretty bad, something like 30/15. Our hand has some value against a random range but it's not like I'm ever crushing, plus villain is never folding here and I'm pretty short myself.

Thoughts??

Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|250/500 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (SB): 2,120.00
BB: 1,370.00
UTG: 8,780.00
BTN: 1,230.00

Hero posts SB 250.00, BB posts BB 500.00

Pre Flop: (750.00) Hero has K 2

fold, fold, Hero ???


glad you posted this one. This is a sticky spot for me generally as well. Its just like you say HU its more than likely the best hand but its also easily dominated and dominating nothing. I usually stick it in here. Big stack is raping us of our button. If we fold we could easily be the bubble in a few hands. Icky spot though I would love to hear what others have to say about this.

just checked pokerstove on this though and K2o vs a random is almost a dead heat and we are not suppose to be flipping at this point right? Not sure why I thought this hand would have more equity against a random.

also note that I play PS so in this scenario for me ante's are a factor.
 
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dg1267

dg1267

Cardschat Elite
In that spot, I want to fold so bad it's not funny. But I would shove there. Most ppl in these games don't have a clue that you would be shoving that wide until you've done it 3 or more times. If you've been inactive recently, shove. If you've been stealing every orbit, fold.

You've got a comfortable second so I think this is where you have to just play the player and forget about your cards.
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

Jammin................
Awards
2
Since you have stats on villain that tell you he is calling you extra wide, and you are really at best a coin flip here, I think I would fold. As Dg said play the player, and it looks like hes calling you here. Hes loose anyway, and he will be so short on the SB, that he is probably calling ATC. But on the other hand, K2 is not hopeless, and you are pushing ATC in 2-3 hands anyway, and you might just scare him off with a push (tho I doubt it), so a tough call. And you have to take chances to win, theres that too. I am also very hard pressed for what to do in this situation, so will look forward to other responses.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
In that spot, I want to fold so bad it's not funny. But I would shove there. Most ppl in these games don't have a clue that you would be shoving that wide until you've done it 3 or more times. If you've been inactive recently, shove. If you've been stealing every orbit, fold.

You've got a comfortable second so I think this is where you have to just play the player and forget about your cards.

Well the problem is he's left to t870 after posting, so he's probably never folding, no matter how I've been playing.

I know what Wiz says to do (don't think I'll post that here yet), but I feel like there's a lot more to consider in this spot than just ICM, so more thoughts?
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

Legend
I've been thinking about this and I think it's best to fold here and wait for the big stack to bust out one of the super short players.

The button will have 750 in blinds coming around and he's only got 1,230 left.

Most likely the BB here will be calling you with ATC and probably shoving ATC next hand anyway.....
 
B

BigThingWithHolesInIt

Rock Star
Here's a thought though: if you take this HU now, you will probably lose your buy-in if you lose the hand, but if you win you are third (1.6x buy-in) and stand a very good chance of being able to fold into second place (2.4x buy-in). You'd even have a reasonable chance of getting first (the players at these stakes usually suck at HU).
(Does this fall under ICM? I haven't learned a great deal about that yet)

Also I think the chance that v folds is small, but not zero.

In a practical sense I would assume this is the last chance we get to go HU with one of the fellow shorties.

These considerations tilt this to a shove for me.
 
cardplayer52

cardplayer52

Cardschat Elite
I think you have alot more fold equity than you think here. But even with none I'm normally shoving any Kx hand with <10bbs. This spot is a little different and folding may have some merit. How much longer till the blinds go up? Will they likely go up before the button hits the big blind? If so a could fold. Still I'm shoving this all day but thats just me. Just thought about another thing if you shove the BB maybe thinking the same thing about the BB and blinds going up adding to your fold equity.
 
dg1267

dg1267

Cardschat Elite
I'm not sitting out and waiting on the big stack to take someone else out. If he's a decent player, he's not going to get involved that much except for stealing blinds... our blinds. That's kind of like playing the prevent defense in football. The only thing it "prevents" is you winning.
 
Z

zerosum79

DTB Coach
Villain is pretty bad, something like 30/15. Our hand has some value against a random range but it's not like I'm ever crushing, plus villain is never folding here and I'm pretty short myself.

Thoughts??

Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|250/500 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (SB): 2,120.00
BB: 1,370.00
UTG: 8,780.00
BTN: 1,230.00

Hero posts SB 250.00, BB posts BB 500.00

Pre Flop: (750.00) Hero has K 2

fold, fold, Hero ???


This is an easy shove. In instances where there is one big stack and 3 somewhat even stacks on the bubble you have to take the opportunity to steal from the SB whenever possible. Here when you steal you add 33% to your stack and push the shorter stack down to ~900 chips which creates an uneven distribution in your favor. Also you cover the stack you are shoving into. Unfortunately if this player is at all aware they will have to call wide but a Kxo had has plenty of showdown value against a random range.

zero
 
Z

zerosum79

DTB Coach
To those that say this is a fold. Notice that it is an easy shove regardless of the villains calling range.

Even with an ultra wide calling range shown, its over a 1% positive EV shove which means that it would be a huge mistake to fold.

zero

ATC-Shove.jpg
 
dg1267

dg1267

Cardschat Elite
Well, that pretty much handles that discussion. There's nothing like asking a question about SnG's and having a pro from DTB come in and let you know the answer. :)

Good to see you in here though, zero.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yeah, I think I got caught up for a second thinking that if we shoved and lost here, we'd be miserably short, but really that's exactly what'll happen if we don't shove, as the blinds are coming around quickly and we're not really safely in 2nd place.

Thanks for the feedback everyone. In game I did shove, villain called with Q6o and my king high help up to win the pot and pop the bubble.
 
fletchdad

fletchdad

Jammin................
Awards
2
As Dg said. a guy who knows his biz in sng play kinda cleared this up. wp cj.

And welcome Greg!!!! Thanks for the input.
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

Broomcorn's uncle
Contribution from zerosum is effectively /thread IMO - ty for your insight :)

I don't have the math background for this, but the reasons I probably shove this are 1: I think cardplayer is right, we actually have a fair bit more fold equity here than some people think, 2: even if we get called light we're rarely in super-bad shape and 3: I don't think we can afford to fold. If we walk the big blind here and someone doubles up, all of a sudden we're the super short stack and at serious risk of bubbling ourselves. To employ a confusing double negative, we don't have enough in our stack not to shove IMO.
 
Rldetheflop

Rldetheflop

Head Ranger
Awesome! Glad this one is so clear cut as this is a scenario which comes up quite a bit. As I said I stick it in here but having selective memory(as most poker players do) it seemed i was way behind quite a bit so I wasnt sure it was the right play but now I am. :)


so how wide should we be shoving here? is this near the bottom of that range?(man i really should get sng wizard)
 
dg1267

dg1267

Cardschat Elite
Awesome! Glad this one is so clear cut as this is a scenario which comes up quite a bit. As I said I stick it in here but having selective memory(as most poker players do) it seemed i was way behind quite a bit so I wasnt sure it was the right play but now I am. :)


so how wide should we be shoving here? is this near the bottom of that range?(man i really should get sng wizard)

As the graph shows up there, we should be shoving ATC.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
BB will not call as wide as you might think in most situations like this when there is a shorter player.
 
Z

zerosum79

DTB Coach
As the graph shows up there, we should be shoving ATC.

Just to clear things up there are two pertinent details.

Based on the 65% calling range we set villain to have, this is an ATC shove based on ICM. However it is not an ATC shove if the villain is calling wider. But I do think this is probably an accurate range since villain will not call 100% even this short.

The other chart displays our equity with K2o against villains entire calling range. This shows that K2o is a +EV shove vs villains entire calling range. This is not to say if we had a much worse hand (eg 32o) that we could shove it profitably for any calling range. Likely at 80-90% villain calling range 32o would turn into a fold.

The difference between these two pieces of info is subtle but important to understand so that you understand what wizard is actually saying when you use these tools.

Regards,
zero
 
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cardplayer52

cardplayer52

Cardschat Elite
Just to clear things up there are two pertinent details.

Based on the 65% calling range we set villain to have, this is an ATC shove based on ICM. However it is not an ATC shove if the villain is calling wider. But I do think this is probably an accurate range since villain will not call 100% even this short.

The other chart displays our equity with K2o against villains entire calling range. This shows that K2o is a +EV shove vs villains entire calling range. This is not to say if we had a much worse hand (eg 32o) that we could shove it profitably for any calling range. Likely at 80-90% villain calling range 32o would turn into a fold.

The difference between these two pieces of info is subtle but important to understand so that you understand what wizard is actually saying when you use these tools.

Regards,
zero

I never actually used that tool. I would do it the hard way and change the villians calling range over and over. I got a question though if say I wanted an edge of .1 the villian would have to be calling less than 75%?
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

Legend
Just to clear things up there are two pertinent details.

Based on the 65% calling range we set villain to have, this is an ATC shove based on ICM. However it is not an ATC shove if the villain is calling wider. But I do think this is probably an accurate range since villain will not call 100% even this short.

But shoudn't villian be calling with ATC?

The other chart displays our equity with K2o against villains entire calling range. This shows that K2o is a +EV shove vs villains entire calling range. This is not to say if we had a much worse hand (eg 32o) that we could shove it profitably for any calling range. Likely at 80-90% villain calling range 32o would turn into a fold.

The difference between these two pieces of info is subtle but important to understand so that you understand what wizard is actually saying when you use these tools.

Regards,
zero

I mean, shouldn't we be expecting him to call with just about any hand?
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I never actually used that tool. I would do it the hard way and change the villians calling range over and over. I got a question though if say I wanted an edge of .1 the villian would have to be calling less than 75%?

I think that's actually 1 on that graph and not .1, but as for your question, I believe that yes, if our edge were 1 then we would fold if he was calling > 75%.

I mean, shouldn't we be expecting him to call with just about any hand?

I mean, I would be calling with any two here, but I guess it's not all that unreasonable to think that a weak player would see 52o and wanna fold it to a raise in front of him. So it'll still be pretty wide, like 65% from a bad player, 85-90% from a more aware player.

edit: I've put it into Wiz where we're the BB, so I have an idea of what would be +$EV to call with just based on ICM, but I'm not gonna post it yet because I think this is another good spot to discuss. So please continue to share your thoughts.
 
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