W
WiZZiM
Legend
Silver Level
..Not really at all the case. A minor +ev play against an opponent who is severely worse than you is a -ev play in itself. In theory, if a really horrible player shoves and we know we're going to double up 55% of the time, and lose 45% of the time, it's a horrible play...and yet it's "+ev"
I agree with this point, it makes a lot of sense to me, i think a lot of the players these days with make any sort of play as long as it's "+EV". It has a lot to do with SNG WIz in my opinion, I was one of those guys back a year ago, but now, i'm looking at spots in WIZ and completely disagreeing with it, even though it may be a "+EV" spot. Like, open shoving Pocket aces at 10/20 is going to be +EV, but is it the MOST profitable way to play the hand? Nope. Is shoving 25BB BVB with KK going to be +EV, sure, but wouldnt we rather induce a shove here?
Think about it like this...even if we're truly ahead of that guy, like completely dominating him and he has KQs like you believe is possible...we're going to lose the tournament right here 35% of the time. Conversely, if we fold here and never win a big pot and end up 4 handed with the short stack...we're not going to bubble more than 35% of the time.
I think this has a lot of merit in the reg speed games, but what about the turbo's? getting a bigger stack early in a turbo game has to be a lot more benefical than a reg speed right? The turbo's are mostly a numbers game, less postflop action, more all in showdowns, so having a larger stack on average at every point in the SNG is going to help us gain a lot more first placings. Distribution tells us that we should be aiming for the two top spots, getting third isn't great for us, Having an ITM of 42% isn't that good when we are getting mostly third places our ROI is likely to drop, whereas having a smaller ITM % but a higher % of firsts is going to leave us with a much higher ROI. Thoughts on this rationale?
Yes I think we can get darn close against wild opponents to ITM every time if we just fold. Worst case we will get 4-5 handed every time. The fact that you can do doesn't mean people will do it, since almost everyone who plays poker is trying to play poker, not make money. Only intelligent players are trying to make money, and there are very very few of those at the lower limits.
A couple random comments: I have no idea what ICM tax is. Easy way of saying that when we go all in in a 9 man STT, we spew equity to the remaining players left at the table. So as you mention, if we double up early in a SNG, we don't double our equity, we start the tournament with 11% when we get the double up our equity goes to 20%, so the remaining 1% is distributed to the remaining players or "ICM tax". It obv gets much worse on the bubble, lets say we have 4 equal stacks, we each have 25% equity, we get it all in and win the hand, our equity goes from 25% to around 38%, in that case we spew 11% of the prize pool to the players who were just watching.I don't think we have any fold equity in this hand. Yeah, this is a big point, the 3betting isnt ever folding here, and we may even have a 3way pot in this spot. You also asked me why I was mentioning the hand the UTG+1 guy has...well it's because he could still have a hand lol. While ranges might make it less likely for him to have something, it's not suddenly impossible. Lastly, SNG wiz simulations are only as good as the data entered into the situation, and SNG wiz does not take into account MANY aspects of the game.