$2.25 NLHE STT: pre-flop with big PP's

Logan2

Logan2

Legend
Unsure spots, any help is apreciated.

Early level (just 10-15 hands so far)/9man S&G
Hand1
full tilt poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t1455 36.38 BBs
CO: t1895 47.38 BBs
BTN: t795 19.88 BBs
SB: t4490 112.25 BBs
Hero (BB): t1375 /34.38 BBs
UTG: t1020 25.50 BBs
UTG+1: t1030 /25.75 BBs /stats (only 13 hands so..)46/31
MP1: t1440 /36 BBs /stats (32 hands)Vp:30/P:23/3B:8/S:60/A:5

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with Q Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t160, MP1 raises to t540, 4 folds, Hero requests TIME ????

=================

Hand2
Full Tilt Poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: t535 10.70 BBs
Hero (CO): t1125 22.50 BBs
BTN: t1820 36.40 BBs
SB: t1440 28.80 BBs
BB: t4680 93.60 BBs
UTG: t3900 78 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is CO with J J
1 fold, MP raises to t535 all in, Hero requests TIME ??no reads

It was the correct move to fold both?, hand1 look like could end in a gamble, MP1 steal a lot and 3B:8 means i could be ahead but is a small example of hands and is in MP1, also have no idea if UTG+1 wake up with a hand or not and still a healthy stack. hand2 could be a coin flip also and still have 3 players behind, my stack looks short but still have 23bb, so decided to fold, correct moves or not?..
 
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pat3392

Visionary
Unsure spots, any help is apreciated.

Early level (just 10-15 hands so far)/9man S&G
Hand1
Full Tilt Poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t1455 36.38 BBs
CO: t1895 47.38 BBs
BTN: t795 19.88 BBs
SB: t4490 112.25 BBs
Hero (BB): t1375 /34.38 BBs
UTG: t1020 25.50 BBs
UTG+1: t1030 /25.75 BBs /stats (only 13 hands so..)46/31
MP1: t1440 /36 BBs /stats (32 hands)Vp:30/P:23/3B:8/S:60/A:5

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with Q Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t160, MP1 raises to t540, 4 folds, Hero requests TIME ????

=================

Hand2
Full Tilt Poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: t535 10.70 BBs
Hero (CO): t1125 22.50 BBs
BTN: t1820 36.40 BBs
SB: t1440 28.80 BBs
BB: t4680 93.60 BBs
UTG: t3900 78 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is CO with J J
1 fold, MP raises to t535 all in, Hero requests TIME ??no reads

It was the correct move to fold both?, hand1 look like could end in a gamble, MP1 steal a lot and 3B:8 means i could be ahead but is a small example of hands and is in MP1, also have no idea if UTG+1 wake up with a hand or not and still a healthy stack. hand2 could be a coin flip also and still have 3 players behind, my stack looks short but still have 23bb, so decided to fold, correct moves or not?..

It's a $2 game.... Squeal with joy as you go all-in

EDIT: by the way, not sure what correct ranges are for the STT but that's probably the bottom of our range for the 1st hand. 2 hand probably go TT aswell
 
Logan2

Logan2

Legend
It's a $2 game.... Squeal with joy as you go all-in

EDIT: by the way, not sure what correct ranges are for the STT but that's probably the bottom of our range for the 1st hand. 2 hand probably go TT aswell

But you got a raiser and reraiser in hand1, 1st raiser will have like 800 chips left and reraiser is a gambler, so versus 1 player yea, maybe is easy to call, versus 2 we are a coin flip or we are behind. Hand2 is the same, BB have 4 times our stack and probably will call too (shorstack is pushing to big stack BB so we should give some credit), so if we get in will be in a 3 way pot.

And i know is a $2buyin game but that not take the fact that want to learn the right way to play, push because is a $2buyin don´t help me much (and then we want to see more posts, not see the point if last time that post a hand wizz come to ask that need all the info to can answer, and now the answer is push because is a $2 game).

I know that for some are standard spots, but for people learning is kind of discouraging to get this answers (if call both hands will be out in both games, btw, but aside of results want to know the right move and why.)

Thanks anyway.

I miss dg.
 
cardplayer52

cardplayer52

Cardschat Elite
Unsure spots, any help is apreciated.

Early level (just 10-15 hands so far)/9man S&G
Hand1
Full Tilt Poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t1455 36.38 BBs
CO: t1895 47.38 BBs
BTN: t795 19.88 BBs
SB: t4490 112.25 BBs
Hero (BB): t1375 /34.38 BBs
UTG: t1020 25.50 BBs
UTG+1: t1030 /25.75 BBs /stats (only 13 hands so..)46/31
MP1: t1440 /36 BBs /stats (32 hands)Vp:30/P:23/3B:8/S:60/A:5

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with Q Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t160, MP1 raises to t540, 4 folds, Hero requests TIME ????

=================

Hand2
Full Tilt Poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: t535 10.70 BBs
Hero (CO): t1125 22.50 BBs
BTN: t1820 36.40 BBs
SB: t1440 28.80 BBs
BB: t4680 93.60 BBs
UTG: t3900 78 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is CO with J J
1 fold, MP raises to t535 all in, Hero requests TIME ??no reads

It was the correct move to fold both?, hand1 look like could end in a gamble, MP1 steal a lot and 3B:8 means i could be ahead but is a small example of hands and is in MP1, also have no idea if UTG+1 wake up with a hand or not and still a healthy stack. hand2 could be a coin flip also and still have 3 players behind, my stack looks short but still have 23bb, so decided to fold, correct moves or not?..

Hand 1: I don't like your open of 4x at all. No need to inflate the pot too much preflop imo. You most likely have an edge on the villians so keep the implied odds high by raising smaller preflop. 2.5x I think is a good standard. As played I'd fold but if you make it 100 to go you save 60 chips when you do fold this will add up. I usd to make my opens bigger trying to narrow the villians range but found certain villian call with garbage no matter how big my open so think it's better to keep pot small and stack them when the got J7o when a 7 high flop comes.
Hand 2: The short stack can be shoving pretty wide and JJ is just a monster I'd shove over here with AJs+ and 88 or 99+ although QQ+ I'd probably just flat trying to induce more action from players behind.

-- and I agree with logan you should make desicons based on the players in the hand and not the buyin. But sometime I will generalize the villians based on buyins. eg I won't give a $2 buyin random credit for shoving as wide as nash would suggest.
 
L

Lofwyr

Rock Star
Good grief. Tonight's session had a consistent theme. I run into sets when I'm in the middle-late stages and get crippled/eliminated before the $. I outflop someone in a coinflip, they river the set. I get it in with dominated pair over pair, they turn/river a set. Que sera sera. My favorite was late in a 180 (<36 players), I'm SB w/AJo and ~10bb. EP limp (~10bb stack), BTN limp (~5bb stack). I shove, fold, fold, BTN calls with 10's. I flop the J and he grabs the 10 on the river. I think he called me a donkey in the chatbox on that hand too :p Hopefully I can get this particular run of variance out of my system soon. Once these spots start running good for me again I'm going to crush a final table or two ;).

@Logan. You should probably shove with both of those hands. They're just too strong to fold in short-stack tournament spots almost 100% of the time. Unless you know for certain the re-shove is QQ+ you have to call and even then you're flipping against AK somewhat more often than you see KK/AA so a call could be best.

with the JJ you've got no reason to think the MP player has a better hand than you. You can be ahead in pair vs. pair or against an over/under easily 35-45% of the time you call. Of the remaining times you'll usually see 2 overs.

You should take a look at some equity distribution graphs. It's rather astounding how powerful QQ+ is and to a slightly lesser extent JJ.
 
Logan2

Logan2

Legend
Hand 1: I don't like your open of 4x at all. No need to inflate the pot too much preflop imo. You most likely have an edge on the villians so keep the implied odds high by raising smaller preflop. 2.5x I think is a good standard. As played I'd fold but if you make it 100 to go you save 60 chips when you do fold this will add up. I usd to make my opens bigger trying to narrow the villians range but found certain villian call with garbage no matter how big my open so think it's better to keep pot small and stack them when the got J7o when a 7 high flop comes.
Hand 2: The short stack can be shoving pretty wide and JJ is just a monster I'd shove over here with AJs+ and 88 or 99+ although QQ+ I'd probably just flat trying to induce more action from players behind.

-- and I agree with logan you should make desicons based on the players in the hand and not the buyin. But sometime I will generalize the villians based on buyins. eg I won't give a $2 buyin random credit for shoving as wide as nash would suggest.
I think you missread Hand1, im the big blind in hand1 (Hero), (villain1)utg+1 is the one who raise 4x, then MP1 reraise (villain2), then im last to act with QQ in bb (facing a raise and 3bet).

Hand2: probably your right, but not sure about the QQ+ flat call part, if flat call to induce more calls and you get call behind and Ace or K come in flop you still will be pushing right? (because already commited pre and will have like 600 left), then why not push in first place instead to give odds to other people to get in?, agree with KK or AA but not sure with QQ.

But i think you right about the call with JJ here.


About the 2.5x raise with blinds low in low buyins not sure if are the best, i understand what your saying that still will have some one that will call even in big raises, today raise 4x with KK with blinds in 40 and a guy call with K2o, flop 292, but at least was only 1 caller and most times i will be ahead, but when raise 2.5x usually get 3 or 4 callers, then my hand is really hard to play and go down in value, so not sure in long term what is the best. probably smaller raises will work better in bigger buyins because will get 3bet more often and can shove back, but in smaller buyins not expect a 3bet but 3 or 4 players flat calling behind and don´t want that with my premium hands.

This make sense?.
 
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pat3392

Visionary
But you got a raiser and reraiser in hand1, 1st raiser will have like 800 chips left and reraiser is a gambler, so versus 1 player yea, maybe is easy to call, versus 2 we are a coin flip or we are behind. Hand2 is the same, BB have 4 times our stack and probably will call too (shorstack is pushing to big stack BB so we should give some credit), so if we get in will be in a 3 way pot.

And i know is a $2buyin game but that not take the fact that want to learn the right way to play, push because is a $2buyin don´t help me much (and then we want to see more posts, not see the point if last time that post a hand wizz come to ask that need all the info to can answer, and now the answer is push because is a $2 game).

I know that for some are standard spots, but for people learning is kind of discouraging to get this answers (if call both hands will be out in both games, btw, but aside of results want to know the right move and why.)

Thanks anyway.

I miss dg.
You have QQ in a puny game.... Players think 2 pictures are the stone cold nuts. QQ has there ranges dominated here. So they never have JJ here? Come on. I'd show the math if you wish

2nd hand. You have JJ against a 10BB pusher. Should be obvious

And how are you not learning, "the right way to play" but not considering your opponents? It's a $2 game so without reads, you have to assume a few things. And one of those assumptions is JJ/QQ are monsters that crush there ranges. Once you've moved up stakes you can start playing a more tight game

The simple answers WizziM and have given you are in response to your simple posts. We can't give detailed responses if you give us little information. Sure, I could spend an hour showing you all the math and how wide there ranges have to be to push here and the things to look for to gain an indication of their ranges but honestly, I'm not going to do that unless it seems that is the kind of response you want + you probably will see all the numbers and either not look at it or go"oh I only gain 200 chips I'm not risking my tournament on that" I just realised I don't even have to do the math; it's STT so it's ICM, sngwiz can do it for me.

That's being result orintated. It's a shove in both hands due to having there ranges crushed. The only reads I have is that it's a $2 game, so I can assume they have pretty wide ranges


Hand 1: I don't like your open of 4x at all. No need to inflate the pot too much preflop imo. You most likely have an edge on the villians so keep the implied odds high by raising smaller preflop. 2.5x I think is a good standard. As played I'd fold but if you make it 100 to go you save 60 chips when you do fold this will add up. I usd to make my opens bigger trying to narrow the villians range but found certain villian call with garbage no matter how big my open so think it's better to keep pot small and stack them when the got J7o when a 7 high flop comes.
Hand 2: The short stack can be shoving pretty wide and JJ is just a monster I'd shove over here with AJs+ and 88 or 99+ although QQ+ I'd probably just flat trying to induce more action from players behind.

-- and I agree with logan you should make desicons based on the players in the hand and not the buyin. But sometime I will generalize the villians based on buyins. eg I won't give a $2 buyin random credit for shoving as wide as nash would suggest.

He didn't raise by the way

As played fold? Wow ok I'm curios now

Assuming there spastics(it's a $2....)

[picture deleted]

Assuming there half competent:

[picture deleted]
 
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pat3392

Visionary
surprise surprise it's a shove

if you're not making generalizations about your opponents then burning money.... Assuming every one is a good, tight player is just dumb It's a $2 game! Any good player won't stay there for that long

People tend to give there opponents too much respect. I guess it's because that's how they'd play in that spot+ a ego thing
 
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pat3392

Visionary
sorry pat, those pictures were gigantic, lol. Had to delete them.

Yeah don't know how to make them smaller, probably resize the picture itself. Anyway, it would have been beneficial for the OP guy to see them but ok
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yeah don't know how to make them smaller, probably resize the picture itself. Anyway, it would have been beneficial for the OP guy to see them but ok

I agree but they were too much of an eyesore, sorry :eek:
 
Logan2

Logan2

Legend
Damn you CJ, let me see it, then bann the pict ;)

I can reduct the pict if want but is important to see it.

Thanks for the answer Pat.
 
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pat3392

Visionary
I agree but they were too much of an eyesore, sorry :eek:

Yeah I thought the same thing

Damn you CJ, let me see it, then bann the pict ;)

I can reduct the pict if want but is important to see it.

Thanks for the answer Pat.

I'll try reducing the size

EDIT:
screenshot20101028at205u.png




screenshot20101028at203y.png
 
cardplayer52

cardplayer52

Cardschat Elite
i totally misread the 1st hand. i though hero made it 4x then got 3bet so i'd fold. but rereading it i think getting in with QQ is fine here as there plently money in the pot preflop and the 3betters stats suggest he's giving away his chips. as for the smaller open raises i still say its better off making smaller raises. i used to get into tons of trouble with bigger raises and getting the same amount of calers and now the pots huge and really have no idea what to do as any good size bet commits me. i think its better to make smaller proflop raises and nit up in multiway pots. you'll have a way tighter range and your good hands will get paid off often enough to make up for any lost equity by folding the best hand here and there. When you have KK you want to be called by hands like K2 it's how you make money. Pat I think at the lower stakes games villians 3bets are a lot tighter than in higher stakes games. Also villian tend to raise limpers with a tigher range as well. It's at higher stakes games you see people 3bet or folding and isolating limpers more often. I think a slightly wider range can be played at higher stakes especially vs regs as they won't call behind as often as random players will.
 
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pat3392

Visionary
Pat I think at the lower stakes games villians 3bets are a lot tighter than in higher stakes games. Also villian tend to raise limpers with a tigher range as well. It's at higher stakes games you see people 3bet or folding and isolating limpers more often. I think a slightly wider range can be played at higher stakes especially vs regs as they won't call behind as often as random players will.

I kind of agree with this. I think in general there's 3 shifts in 3-betting ranges:

The low games where opponents think hands like QJ/AT are the nuts. People won't be 3-bet bluffing much, there raising there QJ for value.

The middlish games. People realise that QJ/AT is crap

The higher games. People start 3-bet bluffing


So yeah, but this falls under the 1st category
 
Logan2

Logan2

Legend
I think you are right, giving to much credit to this players, surprise to see that even TT will be a shove in Hand1, in 2nd pict with tight range the difference betwen EqP and Eqf is not that big like in 1st one, and QQ is in the line there, but unless have a lot of hands or notes guess should be pushing in both scenarios. the hand2 should be a standard call vs a 10bb shove with AT+/88+, but with the big stack in bb with 4 times our stack scare me, wich is my mistake.

Thank you very much, Pat.

Thanks Lofwyr also for the comment.

Cp, will try to work out a couple weeks with the lower raises to see how works but not totally convinced that work in this level, will see.
 
Bwammo

Bwammo

DragTheBar Coach
Unsure spots, any help is apreciated.

Early level (just 10-15 hands so far)/9man S&G
Hand1
Full Tilt Poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t1455 36.38 BBs
CO: t1895 47.38 BBs
BTN: t795 19.88 BBs
SB: t4490 112.25 BBs
Hero (BB): t1375 /34.38 BBs
UTG: t1020 25.50 BBs
UTG+1: t1030 /25.75 BBs /stats (only 13 hands so..)46/31
MP1: t1440 /36 BBs /stats (32 hands)Vp:30/P:23/3B:8/S:60/A:5

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with Q Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t160, MP1 raises to t540, 4 folds, Hero requests TIME ????

=================

Hand2
Full Tilt Poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: t535 10.70 BBs
Hero (CO): t1125 22.50 BBs
BTN: t1820 36.40 BBs
SB: t1440 28.80 BBs
BB: t4680 93.60 BBs
UTG: t3900 78 BBs

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is CO with J J
1 fold, MP raises to t535 all in, Hero requests TIME ??no reads

It was the correct move to fold both?, hand1 look like could end in a gamble, MP1 steal a lot and 3B:8 means i could be ahead but is a small example of hands and is in MP1, also have no idea if UTG+1 wake up with a hand or not and still a healthy stack. hand2 could be a coin flip also and still have 3 players behind, my stack looks short but still have 23bb, so decided to fold, correct moves or not?..

Hand1: Good fold. Sure sometimes we end up ahead, but usually we're behind or coinflipping.

Hand2: Shove. The original raiser only has 10xbb which means it's very likely he's going to be shoving any pocket pair as well as weak aces(especially at the 2 dollar level). We're good against that range, coinflipping sometimes, and sometimes we'll be dominated...but bottom line if we lose we'll still have over 10xbb. Looking at the stack dynamics of the table, we're in a clear 2nd to last place position where the player in 3rd place has almost twice your stack(when this is the case it's usually best to invite a little more risk). If the blinds were increasing at all in the near future there's even more reason to get it in here.
 
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pat3392

Visionary
Hand1: Good fold. Sure sometimes we end up ahead, but usually we're behind or coinflipping.

Hand2: Shove. The original raiser only has 10xbb which means it's very likely he's going to be shoving any pocket pair as well as weak aces(especially at the 2 dollar level). We're good against that range, coinflipping sometimes, and sometimes we'll be dominated...but bottom line if we lose we'll still have over 10xbb. Looking at the stack dynamics of the table, we're in a clear 2nd to last place position where the player in 3rd place has almost twice your stack(when this is the case it's usually best to invite a little more risk). If the blinds were increasing at all in the near future there's even more reason to get it in here.

Clearly you haven't played any $2 games in awhile :p QQ is way ahead here. Opponents will be stacking of with TT just as easy as AA. Folding this is giving up way too much equity. It should be fairly clear we're ahead of the UTG+1 and as for the 3-better, he'd be raising here with AJs+, KQs+ AQ+ TT+ and probably even looser than this
 
Bwammo

Bwammo

DragTheBar Coach
Clearly you haven't played any $2 games in awhile :p QQ is way ahead here. Opponents will be stacking of with TT just as easy as AA. Folding this is giving up way too much equity. It should be fairly clear we're ahead of the UTG+1 and as for the 3-better, he'd be raising here with AJs+, KQs+ AQ+ TT+ and probably even looser than this

You really think someone is going to 3bet from MP with KQs? (also lol at KQs+ since there's nothing above KQs)

If you notice i said "sometimes you end up ahead." Those will be the rare times where the opponent has TT or 99 and is completely overplaying his hand...or he has AJs and is just completely silly from MP. Mix that information with the fact that there's also a small chance that the UTG player has something, and we have a recipe for just waiting for a better spot. What is the point of risking everything we have on a hunch that we're ahead in an attempt to double up when the double up isn't likely to increase our chances of ITM by more than 50%. There would still be 7 players remaining...lots of battles still to be fought.
 
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pat3392

Visionary
You really think someone is going to 3bet from MP with KQs? (also lol at KQs+ since there's nothing above KQs)

If you notice i said "sometimes you end up ahead." Those will be the rare times where the opponent has TT or 99 and is completely overplaying his hand...or he has AJs and is just completely silly from MP. Mix that information with the fact that there's also a small chance that the UTG player has something, and we have a recipe for just waiting for a better spot. What is the point of risking everything we have on a hunch that we're ahead in an attempt to double up when the double up isn't likely to increase our chances of ITM by more than 50%. There would still be 7 players remaining...lots of battles still to be fought.

Yup I seen it all the time. Two pictures and it's sooted!!

woops

Or you can use your logic against you; why fold this hand on the hunch that the opponents are sort of competent? It's a $2 game. A lot of players run at a VPIP of 40-70. They play there J6s and then they get a "monster" AJs. They think they have the stone cold nuts and will try to get the money in. Some of them are really devious and will try to trap with their "monster."

Sure UTG+1 could wake up with AA, but on the contary he could also wake up with JJ and snap call. Poker is about averages and I don't understand why you're pointing out that UTG+1 could have a strong hand when he's likely to have crap and willing to go all the way with it; seems like very nitty thinking but it is a STT so I guess that's optimal

Sure it won't increase our chances of ITM but it isn't all about ITM. It's about making $$, and doubling up when we have there ranges crushed will increase the chances that we win the thing enough for the risk, as sngwiz points out
 
Bwammo

Bwammo

DragTheBar Coach
Sure it won't increase our chances of ITM but it isn't all about ITM. It's about making $$, and doubling up when we have there ranges crushed will increase the chances that we win the thing enough for the risk, as sngwiz points out

Actually when we're in a 9 man sng the only thing on our mind is making the money...until we're in the money. Then the new goal is to win the tournament. When we're going to be ITM 40% of the time on average it's silly to try and win the tournament instead of focus on making the money. In MTTs and 45 man sngs our ITM rate is much much much lower, therefor we're willing to take the extra risk and go ahead and get it in here. If this situation was presented to me in a MTT sng there's no way on God's green earth that I will fold this.

Also for the record, if everyone on the table is playing like a loose maniac, we'll probably be able to fold to the money more often than not, so we should only be taking "sure things" compared to adding in risk. The better the players are around you the more risk you should be willing to incur.
 
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pat3392

Visionary
Actually when we're in a 9 man sng the only thing on our mind is making the money...until we're in the money. Then the new goal is to win the tournament. When we're going to be ITM 40% of the time on average it's silly to try and win the tournament instead of focus on making the money. In MTTs and 45 man sngs our ITM rate is much much much lower, therefor we're willing to take the extra risk and go ahead and get it in here. If this situation was presented to me in a MTT sng there's no way on God's green earth that I will fold this.

Also for the record, if everyone on the table is playing like a loose maniac, we'll probably be able to fold to the money more often than not, so we should only be taking "sure things" compared to adding in risk. The better the players are around you the more risk you should be willing to incur.

But how many chips can we give up so that we don't bust? + I didn't think the ICM tax had a huge impact this early

So don't push because we are likely to make profit by folding to get ITM? Not taking +EV spots is just as bad as taking -EV spots

But would you consider a "sure thing' spot? The players aren't exactly maniacal late. From my experiences they tend to nitten up a hell around the money, which makes bubble play a pain. They play there cards; if they have 79 and someone shoves they fold, even if that is half of there stack. I play with these players every week at live venues and they always berate me for shoving/calling wide with 2-5 M

To prove a point I gave them much tighter ranges via sngwiz and it says it's a clear push. We are gaining at worse 5% of the prize pool, and probably a lot more because I strongly believe they are looser than this. How can we give up that much money? Sure you may be able to argue(although I doubt it) that we have more equity fold this as 5% isn't enough but work case scenario we load up another game.... In other words, folding may(I strongly doubt) be better ROI wise but not hourly wise.

By the way, since you hate sngwiz I ran the simulation via chip equity as well. We gain 300 chips here. Can we truly give up that many here? That's 20% of our stack. Surely you don't think that we are going to fold are way to the money with no risks via shoves whatsoever. If that was true people could load up STT, walk away and come back with a profit. We are going to have to take some risks via shoves, and by taking this risk here we won't have to risk as much later on
screenshot20101028at715h.png
 
Bwammo

Bwammo

DragTheBar Coach
So don't push because we are likely to make profit by folding to get ITM? Not taking +EV spots is just as bad as taking -EV spots

Not really at all the case. A minor +ev play against an opponent who is severely worse than you is a -ev play in itself. In theory, if a really horrible player shoves and we know we're going to double up 55% of the time, and lose 45% of the time, it's a horrible play...and yet it's "+ev"

Think about it like this...even if we're truly ahead of that guy, like completely dominating him and he has KQs like you believe is possible...we're going to lose the tournament right here 35% of the time. Conversely, if we fold here and never win a big pot and end up 4 handed with the short stack...we're not going to bubble more than 35% of the time.

Surely you don't think that we are going to fold are way to the money with no risks via shoves whatsoever. If that was true people could load up STT, walk away and come back with a profit.

Yes I think we can get darn close against wild opponents to ITM every time if we just fold. Worst case we will get 4-5 handed every time. The fact that you can do doesn't mean people will do it, since almost everyone who plays poker is trying to play poker, not make money. Only intelligent players are trying to make money, and there are very very few of those at the lower limits.

A couple random comments: I have no idea what ICM tax is. I don't think we have any fold equity in this hand. You also asked me why I was mentioning the hand the UTG+1 guy has...well it's because he could still have a hand lol. While ranges might make it less likely for him to have something, it's not suddenly impossible. Lastly, SNG wiz simulations are only as good as the data entered into the situation, and SNG wiz does not take into account MANY aspects of the game.
 
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pat3392

Visionary
Not really at all the case. A minor +ev play against an opponent who is severely worse than you is a -ev play in itself. In theory, if a really horrible player shoves and we know we're going to double up 55% of the time, and lose 45% of the time, it's a horrible play...and yet it's "+ev"

Think about it like this...even if we're truly ahead of that guy, like completely dominating him and he has KQs like you believe is possible...we're going to lose the tournament right here 35% of the time. Conversely, if we fold here and never win a big pot and end up 4 handed with the short stack...we're not going to bubble more than 35% of the time.



Yes I think we can get darn close against wild opponents to ITM every time if we just fold. Worst case we will get 4-5 handed every time. The fact that you can do doesn't mean people will do it, since almost everyone who plays poker is trying to play poker, not make money. Only intelligent players are trying to make money, and there are very very few of those at the lower limits.

A couple random comments: I don't think we have any fold equity in this hand. You also asked me why I was mentioning the hand the UTG+1 guy has...well it's because he could still have a hand lol. While ranges might make it less likely for him to have something, it's not suddenly impossible. Lastly, SNG wiz simulations are only as good as the data entered into the situation, and SNG wiz does not take into account MANY aspects of the game.

Hang on a second, how did you do 2 quotes in 1 post?? Bewildered here

That's assuming that we are only going to play that one game. We could fold our 10% pot overlay and wait for a better spot, or we could take it and if we bust simply load another game, hence decreasing our ROI but maximizing our hourly. Not sure if OP plays in sets but if he does he can still load up another game due to it being only the 2 level.

Whilst that is true, we aren't going to get ITM with as much chips if we take a shove now rather than later, due to the gigabet dilemma.

I guess it depends on how many shoves OP has to make to get into the money. If he has to shove more than 2 on average than this should be a clear push. If he has to shove only once then your logic has a lot more merit and perhaps correct. But if it was that easy to make with these surely people would catch on to this and play 100 tables, fold all of them till the button and do 1 shove and walla, profit

Yeah but I believe UTG+1 will call a shove with TT just as lightly as AA, hence they cancel each other out. You could argue that folding is better due to fold to bubble but they will also have AK/AQ plus all the dead money from that which has been folded

So instead of taking SnGwizards calculations we should take your estimates? Both are subjective and I dare say that yours are most likely more so

What are some of the aspects that it doesn't consider for this particular hand?
 
W

WiZZiM

Legend
I kind of agree with this. I think in general there's 3 shifts in 3-betting ranges:

The low games where opponents think hands like QJ/AT are the nuts. People won't be 3-bet bluffing much, there raising there QJ for value.

The middlish games. People realise that QJ/AT is crap

The higher games. People start 3-bet bluffing


So yeah, but this falls under the 1st category
Generally at these micros, players tend to just flat with those weaker broadway hands, their 3betting tends to be on the tighter side. Sure they are players who will go crazy and 3bet with anything that resembles strength, but here we have no real read on this guy, so we have to kind of assume he isn't 3betting as wide as you mention, he is more likely to just flat behind with those hands. And in the higher games people don't 3bet bluff in spots like this.

But how many chips can we give up so that we don't bust? + I didn't think the ICM tax had a huge impact this early

So don't push because we are likely to make profit by folding to get ITM? Not taking +EV spots is just as bad as taking -EV spotsDepends, as a 'good' player, we can probably afford to pass on slightly +EV situations as we're going to be able to find better spots later on

But would you consider a "sure thing' spot? The players aren't exactly maniacal late. From my experiences they tend to nitten up a hell around the money, which makes bubble play a pain. They play there cards; if they have 79 and someone shoves they fold, even if that is half of there stack. I play with these players every week at live venues and they always berate me for shoving/calling wide with 2-5 M

To prove a point I gave them much tighter ranges via sngwiz and it says it's a clear push. We are gaining at worse 5% of the prize pool, and probably a lot more because I strongly believe they are looser than this. How can we give up that much money? Sure you may be able to argue(although I doubt it) that we have more equity fold this as 5% isn't enough but work case scenario we load up another game.... In other words, folding may(I strongly doubt) be better ROI wise but not hourly wise. Those ranges arn't quite correct, the guy who 3bet is never folding here, those subtle things in their range can make a pretty big differance to our diff.

By the way, since you hate sngwiz I ran the simulation via chip equity as well. We gain 300 chips here. Can we truly give up that many here? That's 20% of our stack. Surely you don't think that we are going to fold are way to the money with no risks via shoves whatsoever. If that was true people could load up STT, walk away and come back with a profit. We are going to have to take some risks via shoves, and by taking this risk here we won't have to risk as much later

Hang on a second, how did you do 2 quotes in 1 post?? Bewildered here

That's assuming that we are only going to play that one game. We could fold our 10% pot overlay and wait for a better spot, or we could take it and if we bust simply load another game, hence decreasing our ROI but maximizing our hourly. Not sure if OP plays in sets but if he does he can still load up another game due to it being only the 2 level.

Whilst that is true, we aren't going to get ITM with as much chips if we take a shove now rather than later, due to the gigabet dilemma.The gigabet dilemma refers mostly to MTT tournaments, and it doens't really apply here. When i refer to gigabet in SNGs, it's almost always reffering to having a very short stack, and taking a -EV shove or call to help us get into the next group of chip stacks or to help us make better +ev decisions later. Here, even if we aquire the big stack, we can't really use it to our advantage just yet, and we will most probably just sit back and wait till the blinds get big.

I guess it depends on how many shoves OP has to make to get into the money. If he has to shove more than 2 on average than this should be a clear push. If he has to shove only once then your logic has a lot more merit and perhaps correct. But if it was that easy to make with these surely people would catch on to this and play 100 tables, fold all of them till the button and do 1 shove and walla, profit

Yeah but I believe UTG+1 will call a shove with TT just as lightly as AA, hence they cancel each other out. You could argue that folding is better due to fold to bubble but they will also have AK/AQ plus all the dead money from that which has been folded

So instead of taking SnGwizards calculations we should take your estimates? Both are subjective and I dare say that yours are most likely more soSNG wiz is helpful in these spots when the correct info is put into it. The ranges are still at most a guesstimate here, so we're never going to really ever be accurate, the main thing SNG wiz is really good at is heads up shove/call spots, thats where it comes into it's own. I've told you before it's not as usefull in the MT SNGs. And to be honest, if you havent been shown or understand equity or the basic background workings of the program, it can do more harm than good. THink i've mentioned that to you before, but good to mention it here on an open forum too.

What are some of the aspects that it doesn't consider for this particular hand?The main one for me is that it won't take into account your skill level over the rest of the field, we can sort of model this with the edge but it's mostly quess work.

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