$2.25 NLHE STT: against all in on bubble with overpair

[thunder1276]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 2.25 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG (t3703)
Button (t5084)
Hero (SB) (t2515)
BB (t2198)
Hero's M: 20.96
Preflop: Hero is SB with K

, K

UTG calls t80, 1 fold, Hero bets t240, BB calls t160, 1 fold
Flop: (t560) 8

, Q

, 5

(2 players)
Hero bets t320, BB raises to t640, Hero raises to t2275 (All-In), BB calls t1318 (All-In)
Turn: (t4476) A

(2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t4476) J

(2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t4476

I was putting him on Q's because I knew he didnt have the flush. After thinking about it though I figure that the most likely hands are sets and AQ KQ with an spade. all that aside how tight should you play on the bubble. I almost folded because I was on the bubble but obviously I thought I had the best hand.

 

[ManicLombax]

Hmm. Yeah you'd think a decent player would not min raise you here without at least one spade. If he's got a made flush you're crushed obviously. If you're right he's got AQ or KQ with a spade though you're about dead even equity-wise. If you win you're ITM with a decent chip stack. I think I'd shove over here too.

 

[MrEpic94]

i shove here. Probably make it 320 preflop so that out Pot to stack ratio post flop is better for getting it all in.

 

[OzExorcist]

First off, a bit of nitpicking - you can't know villain doesn't have a flush. He has a range of hands and flushes can certainly be among them.

I'm kind of in two minds about the preflop raise sizing - on one hand making it 240 keeps the pot a little smaller, making it easier for us to get away with just a small loss if an ace comes on the flop. On the other hand that makes it relatively cheap for the big blind to come along too so we end up playing a bloated pot multi-way and out of position... bleh. I probably make it about 300 preflop in an attempt to find a balance between getting value and isolating to make our life at least a little easier postflop.

As played I guess barring some read that villain only plays monsters this way I get the money in, on the principle that it's a $2 game and the average villain in a $2 game is a drooler that can get in here with naked draws, a pair and a draw or even just a pair as well as the flushes / sets / two pairs that beat us. The minraise is kinda weird but unless I've got a solid read on what it means I just stick with the plan and stick it in.

Plus as Manic has pointed out you're ITM with a big stack if you win and you're not totally knocked out if you lose.