$2.20 NLHE STT: DoN: call all in with 88 in BB?

[Jacki Burkhart]

Merge Game #74792725-34 (Tournament) | Holdem NL | 01/04/2014 13:53:46 EST | Version:2
Table Double or Nothing - $2.20, 74792363, Seats 10 (Tournament: Double or Nothing - $2.20, 74792363)

Seat 1: Alseagles ($4,765.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: Thundersnow ($1,685.00 in chips)
Seat 4: jjb1981or ($1,820.00 in chips)
Seat 7: volhaloe1 ($2,650.00 in chips)
Seat 9: nb81094 ($3,005.00 in chips)
Seat 10: swingleft ($1,075.00 in chips)
Thundersnow: Post SB $60.00
jjb1981or: Post BB $120.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jjb1981or [8s 8d]
volhaloe1: Fold
nb81094: Fold
swingleft: Allin $1,075.00
Alseagles: Fold
Thundersnow: Fold
jjb1981or: Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
swingleft: wins $300.00
swingleft: wins $955.00 (uncalled)

6 players remain in this DoN, 5 paid. Table seems fairly nitty.

I'm still getting used to using my HUD, only had it 3 days, so interpreting stats is not super intuitive yet.

Anyways...the short stack shoves on my BB I have 88. my stats on him are as follows:

hands (52) VPIP:14.29 PFR: 14.29 3B:- CB:50 FCB:-

It's a close spot, being that we're both pretty short I need to make a move soon. I think with 99 I would probably call, TT+ I would snap call...88 is really close for me....

 

[Arjonius]

I'm inclined to fold. If I assume the opener is shoving 20-30% here, 88 is probably no better than 55% against his range. Given that I only need one more person to bust, which can happen in a lot of ways, I'd rather retain my stack than try to play sheriff with a small edge where losing would result in everyone else having at least twice my stack.

 

[gtothec]

correct me if im wrong but isnt this where icm stratergy comes into play alot?

 

[twohaha]

SNG wizard is more useful in situations like this. Ran it through, and Villain needs to shove more than 25% of the time in order for a call to be profitable. I don't really play DoN, but 25% seems to be pretty high, so you should fold 88.

 

[Propane Goat]

Agreed with others, fold. Based on all stack sizes, it's too risky to call here. You're getting a little short, but you're not alone and it's ok to wait and see what the other short stacks do.

If you call and lose here you're in trouble; what usually happens in DoN's if you have a very short stack on the bubble, all the other players will just keep shuffling blinds around to grind you down. Mid stacks will even fold hands like QQ to a raise from a big stack, rather than get in a big confrontation when there's a very short stack on the table.

I would much rather be the one shoving on the bubble in these than calling, especially with a mid pair. I'm probably too nitty, but here I think I would fold up to JJ. If villain has AK/AQ, which is likely, it's still a coin toss.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

thanks for replies.
I don't play too many DoNs, usually SnGs...so I guess my idea of snap calling TT+ is too loose....good to know...

 

[Arjonius]

thanks for replies.
I don't play too many DoNs, usually SnGs...so I guess my idea of snap calling TT+ is too loose....good to know...

The situation is basically like being on the bubble in a satellite. Survival increases in importance while chip accumulation declines because you don't win more based on where you are in the finishing order.