$2.20 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: $2.20 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: 33 in SB facing CO raise in satellite

[trent32la]

$2.20 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: $2.20 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: 33 in SB facing CO raise in satellite

Post-rebuy of a $2.20+R satellite for a $33 ticket. I'm sitting 10/23 needed top13 for a $33 ticket. I get dealt 33 in the cutoff here and a 15bb stack minraises on the cutoff, his vpip/pfr are 31/10 over ~60 hands. What is your play here? I'm leaning towards a fold because it's a satellite and I don't think a player running 31/10 has much of a r/f range here. I can't neccesarily "set mine" here on a 20bb stack OOP, so I don't feel flatting is an option here ever.

81827553-84 - Nightly $33 Coupon [13 Seats%2C +R%2C Turbo] (81826308-1)
Holdem Tournament No Limit Level 15 Ante 100, Blinds 500/1000 Holdem Tournament
Wednesday 11 Mar 2015 4:13:26 PM
1: Tonyboy5
2: HANZAM56 Cutoff > 15bbs
3: goodsaint (Dealer)
4: trent32la Small Blind > 20bbs
5: ODZENDZ Big Blind > 26bbs
6: Luckstar0
7: EdwardMordrake
*** BLINDS ***
Tonyboy5 Paid Ante 100
HANZAM56 Paid Ante 100
goodsaint Paid Ante 100
trent32la Paid Ante 100
ODZENDZ Paid Ante 100
Luckstar0 Paid Ante 100
EdwardMordrake Paid Ante 100
trent32la Posts Small Blind 500
ODZENDZ Posts Big Blind 1000
*** PREFLOP ***
trent32la Hole Cards: 3s,3c
Luckstar0 Folds
EdwardMordrake Folds
Tonyboy5 Folds
HANZAM56 Raises 2000
goodsaint Folds
trent32la ?????

 

[horizon12]

a fold because it's a satellite and I don't think a player running 31/10 has much of a r/f range here. I can't neccesarily "set mine" here on a 20bb stack OOP, so I don't feel flatting is an option here ever.

This answer why you need fold

Can also add that you practically no have fold equity vs this villain, open range villain here like broadway or pair and he will almost always call your shove....

 

[PokerFunKid]

30/10 means he often put chips in preflop but doesnt put in chips post flop when he does. 10/23 looks a good spot to ship the tickets but you're not very close to shipping it. Chip EV this is for sure a very profitable shove. He will fold often and if he calls you you are often flipping. So it depends if ICM is in player. How close are all the stacks together. What are the dynamics? Not knowing this information i think i'm shoving here. Picking up those chips is a great improvement to your stack. And if he calls you are most likely flipping. If you double you are in a very good spot.

Often players with a vpip much higher then their pfr are weak players (and visa versa). Depends also if he is a donk and is calling a lot of over cards there. Or scared and tries to fold to the ticket. Lets say he open shoves, it is a much different situation. You have no fold equity and it is a easy fold. The fold equity is very important here. With his vpip being high and close to the tickets you have even more fold equity.

 

[Martinosky11]

Fold and find another spot, to shove that hand we need at least 50% fold to 3bet stat. and i think his not folding 2 much.

 

[lilu80]

How many all players in this?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I'm folding. When a player plays 30% of hands but only raises 10% of hands, and then he elects to raise that pretty much means he is not folding to your preflop shove and 33 is in pretty bad shape against his raise/call range. something like 35% equity if he is raising the top 10% of hands (55+,AT+, A8s+). If he is limping small pairs and raising more face cards something like 88+ AT+, KJ+ then you are doing a little bit better with 41% equity. But still, with satellite ICM a factor I'd just let it go.

the only other play would be to flat (yuck) and then get it in if the flop has no paint and hope he has AK/AQ. But I don't really like that either. there will be better spots in the future.