$2.20 NLHE MTT: Phase 1 SCOOP event 01

[mariussica88]

CO stats after 69 hands: VPIP 18 PFR 0 Limp 19 Post flop AGG 12

This is the last hand of the $2.20 SCOOP 01 Phase 1 event, do you guys think that I should raise bigger maybe event shove pre-flop? Since is the last hand of the Phase 1 I don't think that any of the remaining players would risk there stacks pre-flop.
pokerstars - 700/1400 Ante 175 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 7 players


MP: 71,814 (51.3 bb)
CO: 53,662 (38.3 bb)
Hero (BTN): 78,822 (56.3 bb)
SB: 66,892 (47.8 bb)
BB: 47,956 (34.3 bb)
UTG: 49,592 (35.4 bb)
UTG+1: 39,202 (28 bb)

7 players post ante of 175, SB posts 700, BB posts 1,400

Pre Flop: (pot: 3,325) Hero has
3 folds, CO calls 1,400, Hero raises to 3,950, 2 folds, CO calls 2,550

Flop: (11,225, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets 6,511, CO calls 6,511

Turn: (24,247, 2 players)
CO bets 24,247, Hero raises to 68,186 and is all-in, CO calls 18,779 and is all-in

River: (110,299, 2 players)

Results: 110,299 pot (0 rake)
Final Board:

CO shows : (Straight, King High)
(Pre 15%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)

Hero shows : (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 85%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)

CO wins 110,299

 

[Edu1]

I think only 3950 is a small size, BB can call with a very wide range and the unnecessary risk increase, a bigger raise like 3.5x or more is better, shove preflop makes sense too.

 

[fundiver199]

Just for those, who dont know, players making it to day 2 (phase 2) of this tournament are in the money, so this is not only the last hand of day 1, its also the money bubble.

Preflop
My standard size for open raising over one limper is 4BB, and <3BB is definitely really small and in my opinion leaving a lot of value on the table.

Flop
On such a coordinated flop I would lean towards checking back AA for pot control. The SPR is 5, and this deep an overpair is not an automatic stack-off for me, and especially not on bad boards like this. Ideally I would like to see a disconnected turn card before putting in more chips, and I also want to protect my stack in case, he already sucked out on me.

Turn
The opponent has not raised preflop in 69 hands, so he is definitely a very passive player. So here you need to use your time bank and ask yourself, what kind of hand a passive player is realistically committing himself with in the last hand of phase 1, right on the money bubble? Is this guy ever bluffing? Or betting "for value" with a hand like KQ or KJ? I think, the answer to both of that is clearly "no". With those hands he would do, what he does most of the time, which is to check and call. So for me this is a spot, where you need to be able to make a disciplined fold. Getting shown the nuts is anything but surpricing especially from someone with those stats

 

[Pavel1203733]

I wouldn't go all in for sure. Last hand of phase 1, last hand before the bubble. Going all-in pre-flop means either missing or meeting a risky player who might get lucky. And on the board already on the flop there is a probable straight for not the worst hand.