This is a discussion on $2.2 NLHE MTT: triple Q - jam or check? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; PokerStars, $1.96 + $0.24 - Hold'em No Limit - 60/120 (12 ante) - 8 players
anbras10 (UTG): 6,264 (52 bb)
xDaianAAx (UTG+1): 4,414 (37 bb)
1numismat (MP): 15,999
In my opinion, it is a fault not to continue the bet on turn - most of the players hardly believe you have Q when it doubles on the turn, especially if they have it too, and they wont care if you have smaller pair full house, they pay it out -, and if your opponent is not an out of mind - or have Q or full - you won't get any value on river... maybe a JJ, 1010 (you more likely would get a re-raise preflop with JJ, 1010, so less chance for that), A9 pays you something, but nothing else, definitely not AK, AJ, A10 or J10...
so it is not really important like this. i would try a mini-raise. 1/3 of the pot or maybe just 25%, not much to call with 9, and maybe can inducate a re-raise - maybe bluff - with any higher pair, Q10-QK, your best hope Qx smaller kicker without full, but in that case he wouldnt check the turn...
I guess he has A9, K9 or J10... so you gave him a river free card... so again, i think the turn check is the main problem, highlight in this hand, that's a small fault, you win less value with that check, as most of the cases he doesn't have full, so you have the winning hand, the question how much chips you win from that.
If it is full, then it s*cks, but part of the game, he will rarely have it. From the turn, you would had to think about, how to force, trick him to put all his stack in the pot... what obviously wont happen on turn with Qx or without he has full... + you will beat yourself, if he has 44 or Q4.....
Ill start by saying I am not a 3x opener. I get we are deep and it probably makes sense to then 3x but I think you will find at these stakes 3x does not make anyone fold and we can make the pot large post when we want to as our opponents biggest weakness is they call too much. However, with all that said I think AQ is the type of hand you would want to 3x open with if that is your style.
On the flop, I dont like the pot sized bet on the a board that has some draws (87, J10) but for the most part is dry and rainbow. I think you will get a lot of folds there from hands that you want a call like 9x, small pocket pairs, even Q10 hands might fold depending on villain. Luckily you get the call but unless there is something that you know about villain that I did not see in this post that call should narrow their range a lot.
On the turn, I do not get the check. You just got villain to call a pot sized bet, they started with 42 BBs so they have roughly 31 BBs still in their stack, why not keep the attack up? Are you afraid at this point of a boat? If so, I see it a little bit as I mentioned their call on the flop should say something about their hand but I would not shutdown after they called once. I would have gone smaller on the flop which would setup a more "normal" turn bet sizing but here with villain stack at about 3.8k, I think we can bet about 1/3rd pot here to make sure we setup the river jam if we choose to. It will look weird betting pot and then betting 1/3rd pot on next street but I also think villain will call 1/3rd if they just called pot the street before.
River does not change anything in my opinion as 44 should not have got here and Q4 is a long shot to call a raise pre and then not bet on turn when checked to so I think if we were ahead on turn then we are ahead now. Playing it as you did though I think we have to play the weakness that we "showed" on the turn and check the river and hope villain gets empowered to bet. They absolutely could have a set here but checking to them on two streets also means they will/should be bluffing some % of the time as well which will be villain dependent. I think the play would be to check call here and catch villains bluffs but also hedge a little if they do have a set since if we lead and they raise us, its a tough fold but it probably would be a fold at that point (not sure if that is too tight or not). It would be a tough decision either way so the easier play is to check call. I think it depends on villain in the end if that is the more profitable way to play the river. Readless I would check call river as you played it but again with all respect, I dont like the way you played the flop and turn.
I actually like your 3BB sizing, because you are 100BB+ deep against both players in the blinds. 2,5BB would also be ok, because you are relatively short against the other players, but you are definitely not making a mistake with your sizing.
Obvious value betting spot, but now I think, your sizing is way to big. These "pot" bets are something, we have seen in other of your hands as well, and this is really something, you need to stop doing. This is a fairly dry board, and on such a board you are supposed to bet with most of your range but to bet small. People call it "downbetting" or "range betting". And this is not just an opinion. This is, what solvers have told us to be the best strategy.
Now in the micros we dont need to always strictly follow GTO strategies, but there is no reason to think, that this massive bet sizing is a good exploit in a 2,2$ tournament on Stars. Its probably the "big" or something similar, and there are a lot of regs in these tournament. And when you use this sizing, you are pretty much forcing him to play well by only giving you action, when you are beat, or you have him coolered with a hand like KQ or QJ.
You want him to continue here with TT-JJ, 9X, 6X, draws or even pure floats, and the way to achieve that is to bet something like 40% pot. There are hardly any situations in poker, where "pot" is the best betsize, so I suggest, that you simply delete the "pot" button and preset some other sizes instead.
The second Q on the board makes it less likely, he has a hand like KQ or QJ, so this is actually not as great a card for you, as it might seem. But I would still be betting for value, and I would choose a small sizing like 25-40% pot, because I want him to continue with draws or with hands like TT-JJ, if he still have those after your massive flop bet.
Obviously we think, we probably have the best hand, but at the same time its not going to be easy to get paid. If he had the case Q, he would likely have bet the turn, so he either has a slowplayed boat, which of course we lose to, or he has a busted draw or a hand like TT-JJ, which is probably not going to call, if we bet to big.
So I would either put out a small bet like 40% pot or check to induce a bluff from busted draws, and I actually think, there can be merits to both lines. Instead you bet full pot again, which pretty much force him to always have a better hand, when he give you action, and this is exactly, what happened.
The hand is a cooler, and there is no way to avoid going broke. But the way, you played the hand, is terrible against his entire range, and you really need to work on your betsizing and thinking more about, what hands you are targeting, and what you want those hands to do. This "pot" betting is something, we saw on TV shows like Poker After Dark 15 years ago, because back then people did not know any better. Now however we do know better, so implement that knowledge in your game and stop sizing your bets, like its still 2004.
When I see pot sized bets on the flop from opponents who are not complete fish, I know the EXACT range to apply to them.
Keep this in mind in future events. You are essentially telegraphing to your opponents what your cards are.
You either have an over pair, tptk or 2 pair. Very easy to play vs a player who telegraphs what there cards are.