$$2.00 NL HE STT: Bubble spot. Risk aversion

[LuisBoaC]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

$2.00

VP$IP

21

PFR

14

AF

1

Currency

$

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/14/1
I found this a tough spot. I often feel I play too scared on the bubble, but I'm not sure if that's the case here or not. I would say Villain is a fairly decent TAG player.
I think shoving pre-flop was an option too. What would you do?
pokerstars, $1.72 + $0.28 - Hold'em No Limit - 60/120 (15 ante) - 4 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Bruce Monk (UTG): 3,988 (33 bb)
hunteroneeye (BU): 6,935 (58 bb)
OlliePike79 (SB): 564 (5 bb)
luisboac (BB): 2,013 (17 bb)

Pre-Flop: (240) Hero (luisboac) is BB with Q♠ K♠
Bruce Monk (UTG) raises to 360, 2 players fold, luisboac (BB) calls 240

Flop: (840) 3♦ 5♦ Q♣ (2 players)
luisboac (BB) checks, Bruce Monk (UTG) checks

Turn: (840) T♣ (2 players)
luisboac (BB) bets 420, Bruce Monk (UTG) raises to 840, luisboac (BB) folds

Total pot: 1,680
Bruce Monk (UTG) wins 1,680

 

[eetenor]

Yes it is fear--we can call the raise decide river and still not bust out- so folding to that size without knowing it is the nuts is fearful.

 

[300HPGOD]

A few things here. First, SB is really low here so you dont have to be looking to get into hands with either of the top two stacks. Secondly, Its the UTG that raises and not the chip leader so this villain is raising into a stack that could take them out so that would make me more cautious than normal. I think this is a snug fold pre given that villain should be stronger raising into a bigger stack and it is a 3x raise. If SB had more chips here and we had less but still more than them it becomes closer in my mind but this is just a fold and see what happens still having 18 BBs. I know a case can be made to go for the win but I dont expect villain to be on crap given the chip stack to their left.

As played going to the flop I am with checking to the raiser there but I am not folding to a bet there on the flop. At this point I called for a reason and with hitting top pair Im not planning on go anywhere with our stack. When villain checks behind I am taking their KK and AA hands out so I am feeling like I have the best hand.

On the turn double suit or no double suit I would be leading there. I would also not be folding to any raise so I would have it in my mind that if I get raised I am going with it here bubble or not. 1010 is the only hand that should/could be checking flop there that now beats us so if they have it then they suck out on me but once I call this hand pre flop then I am playing to win the tournament. I am not calling this pre flop to then play tentative or be scared. So given in the min raise there by villain I am just jamming over it. I would also think 1010 should not just be min raising there either but would want to get it in to get value from everything that we would be betting there.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Being a mid-stack on the bubble the best strategy against good players is to avoid getting involved with them, if they have you covered, unless you can do so with fold equity. 17BB is a perfect rejam stack, and KQs is a perfect rejam hand. So the standard play here is 100% to rejam. And if he then happen to wake up with a big hand and bust us, then so be it. Even though there is high risk aversion on the bubble of a 9-man, we should not play ONLY to min-cash. Accumulating chips and going for the win still has value.

With that being said he is raising into the chipleader, and he is raising 3BB into two short stacks, where he should normally be min-raising. So depending on, what kind of reads you had, this does look pretty strong, and there might not be as much fold equity, as we want. So with the right read I can see making a snug fold here as well. But I would never call, because that just put you in a position, where you are going to be pushed around postflop out of position.

Flop
Great flop for you obviously, and with an SPR of just a little over two the plan here is to play for stacks bubble or not. You can either check-call and look to get it in later, or you can check-jam over his C-bet. However he check back.

Turn
Obvious spot to bet for value, and the plan is still to play for stacks. So when he raise, not only would I not fold. I would actually be thrilled about it, and after tanking a bit to make it look like, I have a difficult decision, I would jam over his raise. Just take a moment to think about, what he is actually representing here. Yes there is TT, which might play like this for value, but mostly there are a ton of draws, that developed on the turn. There is KJ, J9, diamonds. Or he could have a flopped draw and play it like this as well. Or he could just be messing around with total air trying to bully a mid-stack on the bubble.