$1650 NLHE: JJ on the Semi Bubble

[Zybomb]

$1650 NL HE: JJ on the Semi Bubble

Borgata Deep Stack

90 players remain, average stack 250k. 76 get paid. Blinds are 4000/8000 A500, we have 120k

UTG opens for 24k. Was just recently moved to our table. Has about 350k in chips and is wearing a hoodie and a 'pocket fives' hat. No abnormal read besides this. Folds around to SB who has 80k. SB 3 bets to 60k. SB has been at our table the entire day 2, and started the day with 25k and has been short stacking successfully the entire day. Appears to be playing solid. We wake up in the BB with JJ. We...

If you answer 'shove' what do you do with TT here?

Does the 60k 3 bet (as opposed to a 80k shove) affect any of our thinking at all?

Side Note: I know this forum is mostly composed of micro stakes grinders but please do not let the buy in affect your responses. There are several satty's of 165 and 330 to get in and while there are many tourny pros in the field it is also composed of typical fish as well.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Some info. to perhaps also include might be.... are there many re-steal-sized stacks on the table? (aside from your's and the guy who oddly 3bet to 60k).

Personally I would just fold in this spot. Reason I asked if there were many re-steal sized stacks is, if utg is solid player they'll be taking that into consideration when they opened for 3x utg (also the fact that they opened to 24k instead of something more around 18,500 imo would suggest they're getting it in with a re-steal stack if &/or when they shove back on them).

 

[baudib1]

Do you have more reads on the SB than this?

This is a fold I think, if the original raiser hadn't been UTG we shove. Here I think we're playing QQ+ only assuming the SB is very tight/solid.

 

[dufferdevon]

Even if the SB is doing this with AK or AQ (plus QQ+) do we want to potentially flip for our tournament life ? Especially so close to the bubble.

I think this is a fold. You may be folding the best hand at the moment though.

 

[baudib1]

If we were flipping here, yes we would want to do so, not because it's close to the bubble. We fold because we're behind 2 scary ranges with no FE.

 

[Teebone]

Fold.

You have no information about villains. You can find a better spot.
JJ is a trouble hand.
UTG suggests alot of strength.
SB is pot commited your going to see whether you made a good lay or not assuming UTG calls.


Also id do the same with 10's.

 

[Henreiman]

Tough spot. But because the opening raise is UTG, and considering you have very little fold equity (and also cannot flat), you have to fold. The bubble looming may help our decision a little as well, regardless of all the 'play to win' talk

 

[Zybomb]

Some info. to perhaps also include might be.... are there many re-steal-sized stacks on the table? (aside from your's and the guy who oddly 3bet to 60k).

I believe two other stacks around my size, the rest of the table was close to chip avg

Do you have more reads on the SB than this?

We know he started Day 2 with 25k in chips. That alone sometimes says something (you start with 30k) since a lot of players will take gambles at the end of Day 1 with stack sizes in the teens and 20s so they don't comeback for the next Day for little reason.

He also has been playing solid short stack poker. Hadn't got involved overly and when his cards were flipped over they were solid.


I figure any hand he is going to play he is going to play for a raise. I figure a reasonable range would be 66+ AQ+. Do you think this is too wide (or narrow?)

 

[wetyeti]

Id fold here as well. The 60k is a weird bet but still all we know is that hes been solid. Why would he get frisky against a new player that has him outstacked?
Curious as to what happened.

As for his range, after a UTG raise Im gonna shove 77+ and practically any A when I get to 10 blinds. His 60k raise is just odd. Im tilting right now trying to wrap my head around it!

 

[ph_il]

Interesting...and forgive me because I'm probably completely over analyzing the hand.

I guess it would depend on SB's previous raises. You said he had been playing a solid SS game since you've been at the table, so is this 3-betting 75% of short stack something he's been doing all day? Or has he been shoving all day and this play is completely out of the ordinary.

...(I don't know how SB plays) but for some reason I dont see anyone 3-betting just 75% of remaining stack with anything less than AA or KK. Odd play to maybe get a player to put him all in or at least get a call, shove flop? And I'm 100% positive he isn't folding to a 4-bet shove with 20K behind. I just don't see a SS making this play with say 66 or AK, I think they're more likely to shove with just barely enough FE. If 'solid' is how you described his play thus far, this seems anything but for a short stack and there is a good chance you're dominated at this point.

...Of course, they're is the chance he is playing your short stack as well. It's going to cost you 50% of your stack and ~66% of your stack to shove into him knowing he's calling 100% of the time, plus you still have UTG raise to worry about. You're committing entire stack if you decided to call/shove and UTG comes over the top for another 40K-60K more...you're probably not folding here with JJ after committing so much. So, you're put into a tough situation in the BB with action before and after you...(random thought, probably completely irrelevant to the hand.)

...To be honest, I really don't know what to say. If the play is completely off the wall from his usuall short-stack play, then I'd probably lean to fold most of the time. I have to say that I don't agree with the 'fold because you're so close to the bubble' comments. OP is nearing short stack with 15BBs/M of ~8 and there is still 14 players that need to bust out before it hits. Ave. stack is 2x OP's. Given the way the hand played, I'd fold here because I might think I'm beat at the point and there is no reason to continue the hand, but not because its almost 'bubble time'. I think if SB shoved, I really don't mind shoving behind with JJ and isolating and possibly being a dominating pair or flipping for most our tourney life. I think it might be too nitty to not shove with JJ as a looming short stack and trying to double up and put ourself into a better spot to win. Unless you're comfortable folding, dropping down to a little over 100.5K....of course this is what I would do if SB shoved, but then maybe thats why I never win MTTs....

tl;dr

Cliff notes:
-Is SB raise odd in a sense he is trying to entice a call/shove? If so, I'd fold.
-Is SB raise his ordinary style of play with a range of say 66+, AQ+? I'd probably lean to shove...or maybe call/fold super scary flop if you're comfortable playing a super-short stack...

 

[Zybomb]

I think the 75% stack reraise is just a stealth all in figuring maybe the PFR will think it means something and somehow increase his fold equity?

Although SB has been short stacked the whole day I don't think he was in a spot where he was THIS short. I don't remember him shoving allin over a PFR, although he had 3 bet before when he wasn't THIS short

 

[salim271]

Even if the SB is doing this with AK or AQ (plus QQ+) do we want to potentially flip for our tournament life ? Especially so close to the bubble.

I think this is a fold. You may be folding the best hand at the moment though.

+1, pocket tens are barely something I want to go HU with, much less against two other players showing strength.

 

[bubonicplay]

Unless UTG is super lag his EP range is likely something like 77+/AK or so with these sizes so SB reshipping AQ or 66-88 and maybe even 99 would be pretty bad. JJ is a pretty easy fold here and QQ/AK is pretty close imo. KK+ obviously we call.

 

[mrjohnson911]

Fold.

You have no information about villains. You can find a better spot.
JJ is a trouble hand.
UTG suggests alot of strength.
SB is pot commited your going to see whether you made a good lay or not assuming UTG calls.


Also id do the same with 10's.

And I thought you'd fold JJ but call with TTs...
I think the information on op matters here, and since you dont really have any, I would fold....
some have suggest you could call/fold a scary flop but thats crazy... if you call theres no way utg is folding, and you dont want to JJ 3handed oop vs a bigstack...