$16.5 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Bounty: Facing a river overbet with trips

[fundiver199]

Hand is from the pokerstars "Mini Daily Pacific Rim Special", which is one of their "main" tournaments with 10.000 chips / 200BB starting stack and 2h45m of late registration. Opponent stats were VPIP 21 / PFR 15 / AF 3 over 175 hands. We collect 2,45$ in bounty money, if we knock him out. Do we hero call the river? Any comments about the earlier streets?

PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 80/160 (16 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 12,126 (76 bb)
UTG+1: 13,496 (84 bb)
MP: 17,575 (110 bb)
MP+1: 9,614 (60 bb)
LP: 10,290 (64 bb)
CO: 24,695 (154 bb)
BU: 10,192 (64 bb)
SB: 3,127 (20 bb)
BB (Hero): 13,043 (82 bb)

Pre-Flop: (384) Hero is BB with J♥ T♥
UTG raises to 400, 7 players fold, Hero calls 240

Flop: (1,024) 4♠ J♠ Q♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 320, Hero calls 320

Turn: (1,664) J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 1,440, Hero calls 1,440

River: (4,544) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 9,950 (all-in), Hero?

 

[Badday94]

Very interesting post, it's a pretty tough one. My thought process would be that with the nuts he wouldn't go all in on the river, unless you've seen him previously getting wild and do unconventional moves. With the best hand I would have expected him to make a pot size value bet.

He raised preflop utg so his hand is strong, but I would put him on an A Q, or on a missed A K or A 10 of spades flush and straight.

Also the fact he didn't bet bigger on the flop and turn, suggests he wasn't afraid of a potential flush draw from you, so I would say he was the one chasing a flush or a straight. Unless he had pocket queens or J Q, which based on the river shove, I would doubt it.

So considering all this, I would make the call. I'm very curious to hear from you what your thought process was and what you ended up doing. I think you made the call

 

[fundiver199]

So considering all this, I would make the call. I'm very curious to hear from you what your thought process was and what you ended up doing. I think you made the call

Thanks for your input. To facilitate an unbiased discussion I will wait a few days before revealing my action and the result. If I folded, then I obviously lost the hand

 

[300HPGOD]

These are the spots that I am throwing up in my mouth when they happen to me. Its a sick spot. Many players here are just like "we have trips, I call" which is obviously not what we can do here without analysis. This is an UTG raiser so range "should be" tighter and stronger. Bet sizing increased significantly on the turn from the flop when the second J hit the board. I dont think Qx does that (except maybe QQ) but I could see AK doing that as a bluff. The river card is a brick however there were two spades on the flop for a busted flush draw. I am not sure villain is firing big on the river with a missed flush draw here since we called the large turn. Its a polarizing jam but I dont think it is as polarizing as we think imo. I dont think (I dont know villain though) they are stacking off with AK here not when you already called a large turn bet. Villain should know we have something when we call the turn and they still rip into us.

This feels like its a hand where villain knows what we have and they are attempting to get full value for it. I dont see worse Jx in his range compared to our Jx and I think air should be very small here. Its possible this is a bluff but getting 1.5 to 1 ish there arent enough bluffs here. Are there enough made hands that do this that we still beat? I personally dont think so as I discount Qx, lower Jx, and AA and KK. To me this is QQ, bigger Jx, or a bluff with a bluff being the least likely by far (not sure how wide their range could even be for bluffs, their bluffs are AA, KK, AK). I dont like folding here but this is where Ill be honest that I tip my cap and fold and say to myself if you bluffed me, then you bluffed me. The thing that really bothers me though is you make a good river check imo to induce a bluff on the river and you get the bet and Im still saying to fold lol. Good hand to post.

 

[FernA9ndo]

I would have called in this spot, he will have the nuts sometimes, but can be bluffing.

 

[Jon Poker]

It is an interesting spot for sure - but I do not think I am folding regardless. We heavily block KJ and AJ - and QJ is almost non existent on this runout so I think we only lose to very few combos here like QQs full or a better jack and that's simply not enough to get me to fold here. Flush draws missed and straight draws missed - villan could also be trying to turn a hand like 88s or 99s into a bluff in order to fold out a better holding. If villan is competent they also understand by overbet-jamming this river they will polarize you to having trips at the very least to find the call, so that being said they are possibly getting folds from hands like AQ, or even slow played AAs or KKs here too - which he can also discount us having quite often since we did not 3bet preflop.

Anyhow - my basic conclusion here is that on this runout I am just too high up in my value range to find the fold - especially when I only lose to such a limited number of combos vs an UTG opening range. If we fold a hand this strong on this runout - we are over folding.

 

[Badday94]

I'm so curious to find out what was the outcome of this I hope you didn't fold and we're left hanging like this lol. I don't think there is much more to say about this, can't wait to hear the result.

 

[dallam]

I would agree with you, thats an interesting hand.


2.5BB pre, 2BB flop and then with a really action generator hand 9BB.
The question is could it be a strong defence to his strong wannabe hand, or is it about actually making a value with a hand that improved to monster?
To continue, river was such an off hand, and as we checked he went for all-in. So is it about making the most, or trying to save the most?

My issue here is that Jack probably not favoured him unless he had QQ ( raise would be a little bit high here for them) but he made his raise on that, and flush is strong too, but I'm not sure if a flush hand would start with a mini-bet and pushing it that much after that on the other streets.
In this situation I see this more likely a bluff than a max. value actions so I assume he had a flush draw and a strong combination that he missed on the river. My tip is AKo (one of them is spade)

So making a fold is totally okay, you would have the starting stack, calling is very risky, but still some chance to see hands like I feel here AKo.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the comments and time to reveal the result. I made the call, and the opponent had QQ, so I lost nearly my entire stack. My reason for calling was, I blocked some the boats as well as AJ, and there were busted draws. However after losing most of my chips this way I felt a bit owned, and I started thinking, that maybe its delusional to think, a reg is ever doing this is a bluff. Maybe his range is basically this one hand and nothing else.

I actually like his line a lot. Going for max value with top set in this spot makes a ton of sense, because he unblock JX, while he strongly block QX. Even with 44 or AJ it would make more sense to go for a smaller river bet trying to get 3 streets from hands like AQ and KQ. But with QQ hands like AQ and KQ make up a very small part of my range, and I am also not calling with a busted draw. I either have tips or nothing, so why not go for max value probably thinking, that if I have trips, I am going to be very inelastic. It worked out perfect, so congratulations to him. Hope he went on to win the tournament

 

[Badday94]

Thanks for the comments and time to reveal the result. I made the call, and the opponent had QQ, so I lost nearly my entire stack. My reason for calling was, I blocked some the boats as well as AJ, and there were busted draws. However after losing most of my chips this way I felt a bit owned, and I started thinking, that maybe its delusional to think, a reg is ever doing this is a bluff. Maybe his range is basically this one hand and nothing else.

I actually like his line a lot. Going for max value with top set in this spot makes a ton of sense, because he unblock JX, while he strongly block QX. Even with 44 or AJ it would make more sense to go for a smaller river bet trying to get 3 streets from hands like AQ and KQ. But with QQ hands like AQ and KQ make up a very small part of my range, and I am also not calling with a busted draw. I either have tips or nothing, so why not go for max value probably thinking, that if I have trips, I am going to be very inelastic. It worked out perfect, so congratulations to him. Hope he went on to win the tournament

This hand was stuck in my head after seeing it the other day. So yesterday I won some nice pots in tournaments by taking this line with the best hand, and also in a zoom cash game. In the cash game I did this with pocket 7's after I made the trips and got called off by a 2 pair, K Q. I was a bit afraid tot shove on the river since I thought he could very well have trip queens or kings, but decided to take the chance. That all in is tricky because you know he might have it, but the all in makes you think it is a bluff.

In heinsight, watching your hand again, considering that guy was a reg, plus the fact he wasn't some big chip leader looking to dominate and walk over the table, with 2 jacks on the board it would have been an insane bluff since the board doesn't look that bluffable.

Learned a lesson from this hand so thank you very much for posting

 

[fundiver199]

In heinsight, watching your hand again, considering that guy was a reg, plus the fact he wasn't some big chip leader looking to dominate and walk over the table, with 2 jacks on the board it would have been an insane bluff since the board doesn't look that bluffable.

Exactly. Its one of those spots, where we call, because we feel, our hand is to strong to fold. To high in our range etc. But maybe we can actually fold, when he choose this sizing, rather than pay 60BB to see, that yeah he has it - again. Whereas if he bet something more normal like 20-30BB, its a snap call.

 

[theANMATOR]

Didn't see this post until today - thought the villain had either A/J (unlikely since we block) QQs - likely, or total air with A/K. I doubt A/Q would take this line
Thanks for the follow up fundiver. I think I'd be calling here as well.