$15 NLHE STT: 6 Max DON $15 call a weak shove light?

[marksmith7]

WPN, $15 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 543 (5.4 bb)
Hero (BB): 2,037 (20.4 bb)
UTG: 1,835 (18.4 bb)
MP: 1,500 (15 bb)
CO: 1,240 (12.4 bb)
BTN: 1,845 (18.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8

8

4 folds, SB raises to 543 and is all-in hero?

SB lost the majority of stack two orbits earlier and has not played a hand since. He is a short stacked reg who I have some but not an extensive history with. One of the HUD stats I keep up is open shove by position 1-9BB's. SB is showing 100% in these spots over a good but not great sample size. Most players in my position here are double fist pump calling but this is actually a very close play. With my chip lead here I'm estimating about 60% TE if I fold. With a call and loss TE is about 50%. With a call and win TE is about 70%. The fact that he has not played a hand in two orbits tells me he is waiting for a good spot to shove. The fact that he is shoving from the SB and how often he shoves from the SB light combined with my ultra tight table image tells me he is doing this with ATC. 88 is about 70% PE vs ATC.

What would you do?

I'll post the results tomorrow.

Spoiler

, Hero calls 443

 

[horizon12]

Easy call here..
SB have only 5 bb , most time he have light range and call here fine , 88 strong hand... And this 30% of your stack, if lose you be still in game...

 

[marksmith7]

Easy call here..
SB have only 5 bb , most time he have light range and call here fine , 88 strong hand... And this 30% of your stack, if lose you be still in game...

Most people are snap calling in this spot. Although I did end up calling I made this thread to try and articulate how close the decision actually is here.

 

[marksmith7]

WPN, $15 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 543 (5.4 bb)
Hero (BB): 2,037 (20.4 bb)
UTG: 1,835 (18.4 bb)
MP: 1,500 (15 bb)
CO: 1,240 (12.4 bb)
BTN: 1,845 (18.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8

8

4 folds, SB raises to 543 and is all-in, Hero calls 443

Flop: (1,086) 5

T

4

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (1,086) 2

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (1,086) 7

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 1,086 pot
Final Board: 5

T

4

2

7

SB showed 4

5

and lost (-543 net)
Hero showed 8

8

and won 1,086 (543 net)


Final analysis. I definitely don't want to be donking off 10% TE in a flip in this spot. I also dont want the short stack to come back in this game and have to beat 3 players as opposed to 2. Only reason I ended up making the call here is because I had him on ATC and not top 70% of hands. Without that read this is a fold. My read turned out to be correct as he had 54. He scared me with the flopped two pair, but I hit the runner diamonds for the rivered flush. After this hand 66 more hands were played totaling 100 for the tournament. This is a very long tournament. I only Vpip'ed in 5 of the 66, only saw 1 flop out of the 5 (and took it with a cbet) and finished in the money. I'm certain I would not have been able to play this tight and win had I not got the win on the 88.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I'm not a DoN expert, but I've played them a bit and I think this is a call...but not an easy call.

For instance, if you are much shorter I think it's a fold....or if you think he is shoving much tighter I think it's a fold. I'm not sure of the actual range...but I think I'd want to know he is shoving wider than 50% to even think about making this call.

The thing is....(and I know you probably know this) you already have a good stack and losing chips is really bad in a DoN and winning chips is only sort of a good thing. maintaining your stack seems to be of prime importance and if you fold here, you still have a really great chance of cashing.

But, in the end I think a call is best. If you have 15bbs I think you can find a fold.

 

[marksmith7]

I'm not a DoN expert, but I've played them a bit and I think this is a call...but not an easy call.

For instance, if you are much shorter I think it's a fold....or if you think he is shoving much tighter I think it's a fold. I'm not sure of the actual range...but I think I'd want to know he is shoving wider than 50% to even think about making this call.

The thing is....(and I know you probably know this) you already have a good stack and losing chips is really bad in a DoN and winning chips is only sort of a good thing. maintaining your stack seems to be of prime importance and if you fold here, you still have a really great chance of cashing.

But, in the end I think a call is best. If you have 15bbs I think you can find a fold.

I agree. The ratio I use in Don's is losing a chip is -3x where as gaining a chip is +1x