$15 NLHE STT: 6 Max DON $15 AQs facing pressure pre

[marksmith7]

WPN, $15 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): 1,160 (7.7 bb)
BB: 1,370 (9.1 bb)
UTG: 2,800 (18.7 bb)
MP: 2,175 (14.5 bb)
CO: 40 (0.3 bb)
BTN: 1,455 (9.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q

A

UTG folds, MP raises to 450, CO folds, BTN calls 450, Hero?




Looks like we got a good discussion on DON's going in the other thread so I thought I would try to keep it going. I'll make a few threads here all are from 6 max DON's (top 3 ITM). Here are the most interesting hands I had from last night.

MP is a solid reg who I have a long history with. He doesn't get it all in often and he doesnt get it all in light. Late in game's like this he is almost always open minraising (like most people). Here he opens for an extra BB. In my experience this line almost always means a moderate strength hand but not a monster. He thinks his hand is likely good when he opens but isnt crazy about seeing a flop. I put him on A9-AQ, KQ, 99-JJ. If he is unpaired I have him crushed and I feel he is smart enough to fold to a shove.

1st time playing against the button. I haven't seen him go to showdown yet but he's taking multiple lines this game that have looked strange (especially this one). Taking all this into account I assume he is not an experienced DON player and is a bit fishy but not a maniac. I'm confident that if he had a good PP or AK he would have shoved it here. By him flatting I'm guessing 77-88. He has a hand which is too good to let go but not good enough to shove. I'm not confident he'll lay down his hand if I shove but I'm at worst flipping with him and at best I've got him beat.

My image at this table is ultra tight as I haven't played many hands. I estimate my TE at 40-45% if I fold due to there being 4 healthy sized stacks and I'm getting a little short. If I shove I'm nearly certain to get the lay down from MP and 50/50 to get the lay down from the BU. If the button plays I estimate 40/60 with me having him beat about 40% and flipping for stacks against his low-mid PP 60%.

What would you have done?

I'll post the results on all these tomorrow.

Spoiler

Hero raises to 1,160 and is all-in, 2 folds, BTN calls 710

 

[horizon12]

You have only 8 bb , its fine shove here, AQs very strong hand, all the same that what in table tight players...

 

[marksmith7]

WPN, $15 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): 1,160 (7.7 bb)
BB: 1,370 (9.1 bb)
UTG: 2,800 (18.7 bb)
MP: 2,175 (14.5 bb)
CO: 40 (0.3 bb)
BTN: 1,455 (9.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q

A

UTG folds, MP raises to 450, CO folds, BTN calls 450, Hero raises to 1,160 and is all-in, 2 folds, BTN calls 710

Flop: (2,920) 4

K

A

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (2,920) 7

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (2,920) J

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 2,920 pot
Final Board: 4

K

A

7

J

Hero showed Q

A

and lost (-1,160 net)
BTN showed J

K

and won 2,920 (1,760 net)


I had a good read on the reg as he folded which I expected. The new player called which surprised me. Then he showed KJ which surprised me even more. My AQ had him beat as a 61% equity favorite. In this spot I was very happy to trade my 40-45 TE for 61 PE. After this hand I changed my notes on this villian from "likely a fish" to "a fish". In the future I'll be value betting him thinner, calling down lighter, and never bluffing against him. I thought I had him beat until his rivered second pair knocked me out of the tourney.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I think I would have normally folded this in a DoN except for your read on the opening reg. The fact that you expect him to fold means you really cannot pass up a spot to flip with dead money.

So....normally fold.

but IF you are nearly 100% certain MP will fold, then jam. I'm not usually that certain of my reads, but if you are then you simply have to take that spot.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

For fun, I'm gonna do the equity calculation based on your reads and ranges. (because that's the kind of nerd I am....)

when the action gets to you, the pot contains: 75+150+450+450=1,125

If you jam for 710 more and you're 100% certain MP will fold and 50% certain BTN will call with 77-88 then:

50% of the time you win 1,125 out right
50% of the time you will have 47.4% equity in a 2,920 pot, but 1,160 came from you so you stand to win 1,760 x 0.5 = 880.

1,125 x 0.50= 562.5
880 x 0.50 = 440

440 + 562.5 = +1,002.50

so, on average you will gain over 1,000 chips with this play IF your reads are correct.

EDIT: wait....did I do that math right? It seems too good to be true..

 

[joe777]

If this is a DoN my opinion is it would be an easy fold for

AQs cause if you look at it there were still 6 player left,just let those two

slug it out,It all about ICM in the DoN and your range got to be tight

against many player left.

 

[basse]

For fun, I'm gonna do the equity calculation based on your reads and ranges. (because that's the kind of nerd I am....)

when the action gets to you, the pot contains: 75+150+450+450=1,125

If you jam for 710 more and you're 100% certain MP will fold and 50% certain BTN will call with 77-88 then:

50% of the time you win 1,125 out right
50% of the time you will have 47.4% equity in a 2,920 pot, but 1,160 came from you so you stand to win 1,760 x 0.5 = 880.

1,125 x 0.50= 562.5
880 x 0.50 = 440

440 + 562.5 = +1,002.50

so, on average you will gain over 1,000 chips with this play IF your reads are correct.

EDIT: wait....did I do that math right? It seems too good to be true..

I think there's a mistake. Here's my copy-paste-edited version:

50% of the time you win 1,125 out right, and get your 1085 back
50% of the time you will have 47.4% equity in a 2,920 pot (including your money)

(1,125+1085) x 0.50= 1105
2920 x 0.50 = 1460

It costs you 1085 to do this (we already calculated in getting the money back), yielding EV of:
1105*0.5 + 1460*0.5 - 1085 = 197.5


... I think.

 

[marksmith7]

I think I would have normally folded this in a DoN except for your read on the opening reg. The fact that you expect him to fold means you really cannot pass up a spot to flip with dead money.

So....normally fold.

but IF you are nearly 100% certain MP will fold, then jam. I'm not usually that certain of my reads, but if you are then you simply have to take that spot.

With competent regs a greater than min raise almost always means a medium strength hand. They think their hand is best but they know its vulnerable so don't want to see a flop. Out of all of my reads, plays, maneuvers, etc. this is one of the ones I'm most confident about. As to whether or not they will fold to the jam that is very villain dependent. One of the stats I keep up on my HUD is allin preflop %. If the villain is low (which this one is) I would say I have approximately 90% confidence in my read.

 

[marksmith7]

I think there's a mistake. Here's my copy-paste-edited version:

50% of the time you win 1,125 out right, and get your 1085 back
50% of the time you will have 47.4% equity in a 2,920 pot (including your money)

(1,125+1085) x 0.50= 1105
2920 x 0.50 = 1460

It costs you 1085 to do this (we already calculated in getting the money back), yielding EV of:
1105*0.5 + 1460*0.5 - 1085 = 197.5


... I think.

I used to try and do cEV calculations at the table while playing. I almost never got them right when I tried. They are complicated and math oriented and there is never time to finish the problem before the timer goes off. Also by using my time bank the villains are able to figure I'm in a marginal spot and are more likely to call as a result. A big breakthrough in my game was when I stopped looking at my nominal chip count. Instead I started by looking at my total number of opponents and starting with a base of 50 for 6, 60 for 5, and 75 for 4. Then I would make adjustments for stack size and player skill. At this point I can figure out my TE and figure my PE vs opponents range. Once you get used to that close plays like this are much easier to determine correctly.

That being said I'm pretty sure both of you guys are wrong on the cEV calculations you just came up with. Then again I'm fairly certain I'd be wrong if I tried to come up with it but here is my feeble attempt.

50% I win 1125 to the double fold. 23.7% I win 1835 when the pp calls and I win the flip. 26.3% I lose to 1085 to the PP when he calls me and the pair holds.

(.50*1125)+(.237*1835)+(.263*-1085)=X
(563)+(434)+(-285)=X
712=X

 

[basse]

I used to try and do cEV calculations at the table while playing. I almost never got them right when I tried. They are complicated and math oriented and there is never time to finish the problem before the timer goes off. Also by using my time bank the villains are able to figure I'm in a marginal spot and are more likely to call as a result. A big breakthrough in my game was when I stopped looking at my nominal chip count. Instead I started by looking at my total number of opponents and starting with a base of 50 for 6, 60 for 5, and 75 for 4. Then I would make adjustments for stack size and player skill. At this point I can figure out my TE and figure my PE vs opponents range. Once you get used to that close plays like this are much easier to determine correctly.

That being said I'm pretty sure both of you guys are wrong on the cEV calculations you just came up with. Then again I'm fairly certain I'd be wrong if I tried to come up with it but here is my feeble attempt.

50% I win 1125 to the double fold. 23.7% I win 1835 when the pp calls and I win the flip. 26.3% I lose to 1085 to the PP when he calls me and the pair holds.

(.50*1125)+(.237*1835)+(.263*-1085)=X
(563)+(434)+(-285)=X
712=X

You're right, I don't know why I was multiplying by 0.5 twice for the outright-win case. And I totally agree, I suck at doing concrete math like this

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

You're right, I don't know why I was multiplying by 0.5 twice for the outright-win case. And I totally agree, I suck at doing concrete math like this

Luckily, we don't need exact math calculations at the table. Having a basic idea and knowing general outcomes of situations that repeat themselves is mostly good enough. because if we DID need exact math calculations at the table, I'd be in pretty bad shape!