$130 NLHE MTT: $1100 ME Live Satellite hand

[Jillychemung]

Live $130 satellite to $1100 ME, 57 players, top 5 get $1100 seats, 6th gets $770

9 handed - Final Table

3 shorter stacks ranging from T$15000 to T$37000
Hero & Villain have T$53000
4 larger stacks ranging from T$55000 to T$65000

blinds 2000/4000 with 6 minutes left in the 20 minute level and then blinds increase to 2500/5000

Villain has been to the left of Hero since 2 tables
Hero has won 5 pots against Villain BvB w/o showdown, either preflop raise or flop CB
Hero has given Villain 1 walk BvB
Villain has flat called Hero's raise, floated Hero's CB and shoved the turn on a 3rd heart
Hero has not limped or flat called a single hand the whole tournament
Villain has limped & flat called a small number of hands
Villain has always opened for a 2.2x-2.5x raise
Both Hero & Villain have knocked players out, Hero has always shown a PP in the KO hands
Villain has shown some 2P hands with broadways and Ace-rag

Again blinds are 2000/4000

Villain opens UTG for T$17000
Folds around to Hero in the BB who shoves for T$53000

What hand range would you put the Villain on?
What hand range should Hero be shoving with here?

 

[duggs]

wow so he 4x it after never making it that big? seems like 77-JJ AQ/AK. i hope you have QQ+

 

[Lucothefish]

^yeah I would be surprised to see AA/KK here, likely something weaker that's too good to fold. I'd add KQ and AJs to that range, given villain's previous showings.

It's a satty and you're close to paydirt. Villain is effectively all in. You're taking blinds without showdown a decent amount which should tighten your showdown range somewhat. You're a midstack but by no means safe.

I could pop QQ and fold TT/AK. Would hate life to see JJ here though and I doubt I could fold it.

 

[WiZZiM]

it's either something weaker like the others have mentioned. or he is a really bad player who gets scared because they got a bad beat when they have something like JJ+ AK and decide to push players out of the pot.

generally i'd go with ranges above, but i wouldnt rule out QQ+ though they are probably pretty rare.

 

[Jillychemung]

Any merit to thinking that we don't have any FE here and if this is a flip this isn't the time to be taking a flip?

I haven't had a chance to run this thru an ICM calculation yet, that'll have to wait for Monday.

 

[duggs]

Any merit to thinking that we don't have any FE here and if this is a flip this isn't the time to be taking a flip?

I haven't had a chance to run this thru an ICM calculation yet, that'll have to wait for Monday.

exactly, which is why we only get in hands that dominate almost all of his range, ie QQ+

 

[baudib1]

fold QQ

 

[MasterOfDisaster]

fold QQ

I think this is probably fine as well. Only I won't know if I am capable of doing that in the heat of the battle folding QQ <--- Probably a leak