$11 NLHE STT: top pair OOP

[thunder1276]

full tilt poker $5 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 8 players - View hand 1189572
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: t1335 44.50 BBs
UTG+1: t1305 43.50 BBs
Hero (MP1): t1575 52.50 BBs
MP2: t1455 48.50 BBs
CO: t1260 42 BBs
BTN: t3030 101 BBs
SB: t1470 49 BBs
BB: t2070 69 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is MP1 with A ♠ Q ♣
2 folds, Hero raises to t90, MP2 calls t90, 3 folds, BB calls t60

Flop: (t285) 3 ♠ A ♦ 9 ♦ (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t210, MP2 calls t210, BB folds

Turn: (t705) 5 ♥ (2 players)
Hero bets t550, MP2 calls t550

River: (t1805) 7 ♥ (2 players)
Hero?? t210

Should I just check here with the intention to call and give him a chance to bluff at it? Im really not worried about two pair or a set because he didnt raise me at all so my biggest concern is a flush draw.

 

[thunder1276]

Ignore the t210 at the end.

 

[OzExorcist]

This would be a pretty standard line for two pair or a set actually - you're doing the betting for them and a hand that strong would probably be worried about scaring you off with a raise.

That said there are plenty of villains who will play a medium ace or an underpair this way as well. After the turn call I'm not seeing a lot of drawing hands in the villain's range because that's a big bet for a draw to be calling with just one card to come. There aren't really any pair + draw hands that make sense either. I really don't see many naked bluff hands in his range at all given his line in the rest of the hand - it's been played like he's got some kind of made hand, the only question is how strong it is.

I'm kinda torn on this one: I doubt there are many worse hands that bet into us if we check the river. I'm expecting things like AT or TT to just check behind. Stronger hands will almost certainly bet into us for value though.

If we shove stronger hands will definitely call (I don't think we're even getting AK/AQ to fold here) but I suspect many of the made hands we beat will call too because that's the way the rest of the hand has been played and if villain wasn't a believer on the turn I don't think a shove will make one of him on the river.

I just can't work out if there's enough worse hands that call to make shoving worthwhile - I think maybe it's a check-fold, with the expectation that we'll take it down a reasonable amount of the time when it goes check-check?

 

[WiZZiM]

I wouldn't think too hard on these ones, just try to move the money in.

 

[WiZZiM]

I would however bet a touch smaller on the flop so it sets up better for 3 streets of value.