$11 NLHE STT: Short Stack BB AJo vs UTG overshove

[Jillychemung]

$11 NL HE STT: Short Stack BB AJo vs UTG overshove

$11 2-Table SNG NLHE (200/400 blinds, 25 ante)
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker

CO: 6,856 (17.1 bb)
BTN: 3,895 (9.7 bb)
SB: 8,260 (20.7 bb)
Hero (BB): 3,005 (7.5 bb) 15/11/1
UTG: 4,984 (12.5 bb) 14/6/2 over 103 hands

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with A

J

UTG raises to 4,959 and is all-in, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero ??

Final Table top 4 get paid
UTG had gotten most of his stack from 2 hands AK & KK just a few hands ago

The overshove really smells like a mediocre hand to me here.

Your thoughts.

 

[Sysvr4]

This is almost always a small pair he doesn't want to see a flop with or AA/KK. Rarely do I find anything in between in this situation.

With 7.5BB I'm taking my chances and calling, but I don't love my hand.

 

[WurlyQ]

This is a clear fold imo.

Chip EV wise, we need villain to be shoving greater than ~10% for our call to be profitable. Moreover, it's the bubble of a sit and go so we need to tighten up. Finally, villain is 14/6. AA and KK may not be in their range but hands like TT-JJ and AQ+ do not want to see a flop OOP so a shove is the correct play.

 

[trashcan]

ICM dictates a clear fold here. I didnt run through wizard but it will be like AQs+ min maybe AK+. Wait for a chance to steal

 

[mattzan]

Fold... Like Sysvr4 said.. it smells like low pair mid pair... 99 lower... it is going to be coin flip... I rather wait more and see what happens... I hate to be the bubble guy.

 

[Vex444]

Since you are the ss I think he may be trying to steal your blind. I dont have any info on how he played earlier other than 2 hands. Was he loose?
what were the blinds at? All that would depend on wether i called or not. Your ss so may have been the time to call if blinds were high

Ok I see they were at 200/400 so I would have folded

 

[Jillychemung]

I'm about to be hit by the blinds, with my stack I will need to be all-in within 10 hands at the most. I was multi-tabling and didn't have any notes of any other play than his big hands.

 

[OzExorcist]

I don't like doing it but I probably fold.

FWIW I think this is a legit big hand more often than not based on your read - the villain has only just accumulated these chips so he's unlikely to be risking them all from UTG with garbage. Plus he's likely to be thinking that everyone else thinks he's bluffing (because it's obv impossible for him to be dealt three big hands close together) so he's probably not pushing unless he's happy to be called. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd figure he's turning up with TT+/AQ+ the majority of the time.

 

[Jillychemung]

Thanks for the hand range Oz. Anyone else wanna help out on the villains hand range. My judgment would be clouded by the results and I want to play with ICM tools with this hand a bit.

 

[j0na1234]

I usually give UTG credit in this spot. Its hard to put him on a hand so i'd fold.
AJs AQo would be borderline call for me, AJo fold.

 

[Jillychemung]

Playing with SitNGo Wizard last night and it appears that I need his range to be worse than top 15% to make this a call. Given that I really can't make his range that wide or weak I should fold.

As played I did call, villain showed QcTc and rivered a T after all blanks hit the board.

 

[WurlyQ]

Playing with SitNGo Wizard last night and it appears that I need his range to be worse than top 15% to make this a call. Given that I really can't make his range that wide or weak I should fold.

As played I did call, villain showed QcTc and rivered a T after all blanks hit the board.

Was villain really 14/6? Villain folding their first 50-60 hands and/or being positionally unaware is vital information to have. Putting them on any sort of shoving range is highly dependent on information like this. There are people who play shove or fold in SnGs though I can't imagine QTs being a profitable shove with an M of 7 from UTG even if you put everyone else at the table on very tight calling ranges.

In general, I would be more concerned about having a default calling range in situations like this and adjusting it based on reads. You don't have enough time to think about their range and then establish a calling range based on the range you came up with. A default calling range in this situation should be something in the realm of AK+, JJ+.

 

[Poker Orifice]

I don't like doing it but I probably fold.

FWIW I think this is a legit big hand more often than not based on your read - the villain has only just accumulated these chips so he's unlikely to be risking them all from UTG with garbage. Plus he's likely to be thinking that everyone else thinks he's bluffing (because it's obv impossible for him to be dealt three big hands close together) so he's probably not pushing unless he's happy to be called. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd figure he's turning up with TT+/AQ+ the majority of the time.

AGREE 100% (maybe even JJ+).
I'm actually kinda shocked by some of the other 'reads' people have suggested here... why would the guy risk his stack with a marginal hand in this spot???? I REALLY doubt he's open shoving here with a small pp. That'd be just crazy.

 

[Poker Orifice]

This is a clear fold imo.

Chip EV wise, we need villain to be shoving greater than ~10% for our call to be profitable. Moreover, it's the bubble of a sit and go so we need to tighten up. Finally, villain is 14/6. AA and KK may not be in their range but hands like TT-JJ and AQ+ do not want to see a flop OOP so a shove is the correct play.

Agreed^^... BUT.. I think we can also include AA,KK.. if villain is a good player they will consider that other's won't be thinking they'd be open-shoving in this spot w AA KK (all the more reason it'd be good to do so.. plus if they'd open shove AK TT+.. only raising instead with AA KK would be really transparent). Maybe I give playes too much credit for being able to think above level1 stuff.... idk... but you'll find me shoving here w AA KK especially if I've already been open shoving prior (you will get players considering making marginal calls like this one here... which btw is clearly a fold imo).

 

[Poker Orifice]

Since you are the ss I think he may be trying to steal your blind. I dont have any info on how he played earlier other than 2 hands. Was he loose?
what were the blinds at? All that would depend on wether i called or not. Your ss so may have been the time to call if blinds were high

Ok I see they were at 200/400 so I would have folded

Attempting to open-shove steal the SS's blind is terrible imo... trying to steal from SS's on the bubble is bad imo... they are much more likely to call you down in desperation mode (and might be priced in to do so as well).. FAR better to steal from players sitting on med.-sized stack who are much more likely to fold, believing they can fold their way past the bubble to get into the money.
Often I see players raising onto SS's, on or nearing bubble, pricing themselves in to call and with junk hands (SS shorter than in this example, or if not.. at least while other stacks are a bit deeper). THis is a huge leak imo. I think one needs to tighten one's range up, and for sure consider that SS will either play back, or call.

 

[WurlyQ]

Agreed^^... BUT.. I think we can also include AA,KK.. if villain is a good player they will consider that other's won't be thinking they'd be open-shoving in this spot w AA KK (all the more reason it'd be good to do so.. plus if they'd open shove AK TT+.. only raising instead with AA KK would be really transparent). Maybe I give playes too much credit for being able to think above level1 stuff.... idk... but you'll find me shoving here w AA KK especially if I've already been open shoving prior (you will get players considering making marginal calls like this one here... which btw is clearly a fold imo).

I'm not saying AA or KK is not in their range. It's really entirely villain dependent as I've seen both. All I can really say is that the majority of the poker population is more likely to jam TT-QQ, AK here than KK-AA from what I've seen. I would probably discount KK-AA in a scenario like this slightly depending on reads but not by much.

There are pros and cons to making a standard raise with AA and KK as opposed to just open jamming. The transparency of only raising AA or KK is not really an issue because you won't run into the same opponents often enough for them to pick up on this. If you do, then you need to start balancing your range by mixing in some of the more marginal hands. I personally like the standard raise with relatively short stacks because, in my experience, many people seem to think it's weakness but I'm totally fine with just open jamming also.

 

[Jillychemung]

Was villain really 14/6?

Looking thru PT3 villain had only seen the flop on 9 hands prior and had only shown down AA,KK,AKo & JTs

The AA hand a complete spaz check/called villain's bets all the way to the river then shove bluff which villain called on the 7th hand of the game.

The JTs hand he called a raise on the SB, check/called a c-bet on a Jhigh flop and then was checked all the way to the river where he lost to KQ that didn't bet a river K due to a 3 diamond straight board

The AKo hand he had shoved AI from the BTN over a UTG raise and won a race over 99

The KK hand he had limped and then called a SS shove along with another player, donk bet the flop when he hit trips on a wet board and 3rd player folded.

I only remembered the last 2 as they were later in the game and had noted them while multitabling.

 

[WurlyQ]

Looking thru PT3 villain had only seen the flop on 9 hands prior and had only shown down AA,KK,AKo & JTs

The AA hand a complete spaz check/called villain's bets all the way to the river then shove bluff which villain called on the 7th hand of the game.

The JTs hand he called a raise on the SB, check/called a c-bet on a Jhigh flop and then was checked all the way to the river where he lost to KQ that didn't bet a river K due to a 3 diamond straight board

The AKo hand he had shoved AI from the BTN over a UTG raise and won a race over 99

The KK hand he had limped and then called a SS shove along with another player, donk bet the flop when he hit trips on a wet board and 3rd player folded.

I only remembered the last 2 as they were later in the game and had noted them while multitabling.

I can't be entirely sure without stack sizes and position but hand 2 makes me think positionally unaware, and hand 4 definitely points to some FPS. Given this information, I now understand where your original read of why you think the shove is a mediocre hand. However, be careful with reading too much into information because many villains are not thinking nearly as much as we are. Therefore, you can discount KK+ in villain's range but removing them entirely is a huge mistake.

Also, you definitely have to err on the side of caution in tournaments, especially on the bubble where math (such as the ICM model) tells you that you need to tighten up. Being ahead of this guy's range is not enough to call. For these reasons, I would probably widen my calling range a little but not by much to around: TT+, AK (possibly AQs depending on game flow). The default range I stated before was JJ+, AK.

You already seem to use some poker calculators which is great. SnGWiz is awesome but if you want to get a better feel for the numbers (as SnGWiz gives you the output of the math without showing the process in between), I would recommend playing with some ranges on Pokerstove varying your opponent's ranges and seeing which hands give you x% equity (that you need in a given scenario) to make a call.