$11 NLHE STT: ATo bvb post

[FastandFurious]

poker stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75.00/t150.00 Blinds - 5 players - View hand 1309559
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): t2559.00 17.06 BBs - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 3.3, hands: 18077
BB: t3177.00 21.18 BBs - VPIP: 28, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 1.1, Hands: 72
UTG: t1971.00 13.14 BBs - VPIP: 18, PFR: 4, 3B: 1, AF: 3.1, Hands: 290
CO: t3068.00 20.45 BBs - VPIP: 29, PFR: 13, 3B: 10, AF: Infinity, Hands: 72
BTN: t2725.00 18.17 BBs - VPIP: 13, PFR: 10, 3B: 6, AF: 4.3, Hands: 892

Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is SB with T :heart: A :spade:
3 folds, Hero raises to t450, BB calls t300

Flop: (t900) 6 :heart: A :club: Q :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets t560.00, BB raises to t1200, Hero raises to t2109, BB calls t909

Filtered Stat unknown BB: 2.5/27/13 Fold to steal in BB:75 Hands:50

If I use pokerstove and give him a range of AA,QQ,66,A5s+,A5o+ we are behind 44.312% vs 55.688%. So that means folding?

If we include A2,A3,A4 we are slightly ahead with 52.729%.

Is my analysis reasonable or should we add some other hands? Do we really have to fold here? etc..

 

[cjatud2012]

A lot of the times pre-flop bvb I will limp-n-go, but we actually have a hand here so maybe a raise is better. The advantage of limping though is, if your opponent is aggressive and raises, you can raise all-in on top of him, and it just looks stupid strong. Plus, you get to keep the pot a little smaller should your steal attempt fail.

As for your spot post, he could be bluffing a lot of the time here, since he'll think you're FOS a lot. Plus you're actually ahead of some of his value range, so I think a shove is fine, especially since you've committed 40% of your stack already.

 

[jbbb]

My line would be a smaller raise pre to like 2.2x or 2.5x max. OTF the pot would be ~660 and you figure to be ahead of most of his range here so a c-bet is fine of maybe 350-390. You're going to be c-betting a lot and so it's pretty hard to villian to put you on an ace. When he raises he's probably semi bluffing a lot (some sort of Q maybe a weak ace) as he thinks your FOS (as CJ put it). So i'd ship it with about 1.6k in the pot depending on how big he raises. If he calls he probably has us crushed, but I can't see many hands that he can call with tbh.

I don't really agree with the range given for villian too.

If you say he's calling a 3-bet shove with AA,QQ,66,A5s+,A5o+ and you're 44% against that range, he's probably re-raising Ax, Qx & 66. So the amount of times he's folding after raising is fairly high (maybe 30%). The equity we have against the hands we don't fold out is 44% which is still pretty high so thats another reason to shove imo.

 

[FastandFurious]

Thx for both replies.. Yeah you're both correct that I should have included some semi-bluffing hands in my analysis + I like the equity thing you mentioned too jbbb..I didn't even think about that

 

[jbbb]

Oh yeah if he shows up with AK or AQ here it's well worth a note. It'll stop you going broke in the future.