$11 NLHE STT: 40/80 AKs bubble with sitting out player

[FastandFurious]

poker stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40.00/t80.00 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 1304593
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t240.00 3 BBs - VPIP: 3, PFR: 2, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, hands: 63
BB: t5355.00 66.94 BBs - VPIP: 23, PFR: 22, 3B: 8, AF: 19.0, Hands: 431
Hero (CO): t765.00 9.56 BBs - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 3, AF: 3.2, Hands: 8553
BTN: t7140.00 89.25 BBs - VPIP: 43, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 1.3, Hands: 100

Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is CO with K :club: A :club:
Hero ??

Filtered Stat BTN: 1.6/36/16 Hands:49
Filtered Stat BB: inf/34/33 Hands:225 (6+tabler, newbie running hot)

SB has been sitting out for a while.. Maybe a bit of a silly question but would u push this or just fold ITM?.. btw, I really hate busting out with a player sitting out on the bubble but yeah it's all about the "optimal play" right ..

& super BS on the BTN takes the dead blinds when in SB..

 

[jbbb]

What a sick spot. I couldn't bring myself to lef the guy sitting out cash. Even if he was there you could probably fold based on ICM (not sure one that though)...BTN and BB are gonna call pretty wide b/c it's not a lot of chips for them, so i'd fold.

 

[WiZZiM]

It comes down to weather or not you want to have a shot at winning the SNG. If you do, shove, if you want to get third most of the time, then fold.

Personally, i couldn't care less about getting ITM with a super shortstack, so i'm shoving this. The main issue is, he actually won't blind out for quite some time, and we're going to be having to play very tight in that time, so i'd take this chance to chip up a little bit.

 

[Gunner57]

I think it is ok to fold if you really need to fininsh ITM. Howevr I would shove. I dont want 3rd in SnG (not worth time or money to play for 3rd). Shove and hope villans dont hit their live cards. If you win this you still need some help to get 2nd or win but it puts you in a better position to wait for SB to go out before you get blinded.

 

[jbbb]

It comes down to weather or not you want to have a shot at winning the SNG. If you do, shove, if you want to get third most of the time, then fold.

Personally, i couldn't care less about getting ITM with a super shortstack, so i'm shoving this. The main issue is, he actually won't blind out for quite some time, and we're going to be having to play very tight in that time, so i'd take this chance to chip up a little bit.

I thought the order of preferance was finish 3rd then finish 1st? But some people say it's better to play to win (one first is better than two thirds bla bla). Surely coming third is better here. Even if we do shove AND get called AND double up we have 1,500 chips which doesn't increase our chance of 1st all that much.

hmm just found ChuckT said this:

This^^^

Play to win, not to make it ITM.

so looks like i'm wrong

 

[losched16]

The play to win or play to cash theory is a bad way to view SNGs when it comes to STT. If this was a 45man+, sure your goal is to try and place as high as possible as the prize pool is steeper in favor of 1st when compared to 9 or 18 mans.
Your decision is not to play to win or play to cash, but to make a series of decisions which results in the highest average prize pool equity. This can be a profitable shove if the big stacks are calling with less than 8% of their hands, which is not happening. Also, if the blinds are going up soon, that can help knock out the short stack quicker.
Regardless, I'm folding.

 

[cardriverx]

I fold.

 

[WiZZiM]

Did some quick calculations. Shoving here doesn't really gain us too much. Blinding away doesn't affect us too much. We have pretty much 20% lockhold of equity right now, so just take it and fold. One question though, does the sitter get a chance at having a showdown, or is he automatically folded?

I gotta stop writing crap early in the morning, disregard my post above .

ANd JBB- the usual school of thought is that it's best to have 1st place higher than 2nd place, but 3rd place higher than 2nd. It really doesn't matter too much as long as 1st place is the highest. Mine has more seconds than thirds, since a lot of people open up once ITM, i nit it up a little more to exploit them and get more seconds .

 

[FastandFurious]

jbbb: so looks like i'm wrong

I don't think so.. I think you are correct.. Based mainly on the stack size set-ups and opponents tendencies sometimes we go for 3rd place and other times 1st place is our main goal even if that means bubbling out a bit more..

WiZZiM : One question though, does the sitter get a chance at having a showdown, or is he automatically folded?

Hmm.. I just check it and he was automatically folded..

Mine has more seconds than thirds, since a lot of people open up once ITM, i nit it up a little more to exploit them and get more seconds

lol I was thinking this too.. I'm glad it has been confirmed so thx ..