$11 NLHE MTT: Sunday Storm 88 in UTG - Money Bubble play

[mariussica88]

This is a hand on the money bubble in last weeks Sunday Storm.
How do you guys play here? Is 88 a strong enough hand to open? And if I open should I push?


pokerstars - 800/1600 Ante 160 NL - Holdem - 9 players


MP+1: 40,939 (25.6 bb)
MP+2: 95,863 (59.9 bb)
CO: 16,456 (10.3 bb)
BTN: 67,490 (42.2 bb)
SB: 88,074 (55 bb)
BB: 45,773 (28.6 bb)
Hero (UTG): 19,923 (12.5 bb)
UTG+1: 26,724 (16.7 bb)
MP: 41,241 (25.8 bb)

9 players post ante of 160, SB posts 800, BB posts 1,600

Pre Flop: (pot: 3,840) Hero has
Hero folds, fold, MP raises to 3,360, 5 folds, BB calls 1,760

Flop: (8,960, 2 players)
BB checks, MP bets 3,046, BB calls 3,046

Turn: (15,052, 2 players) :Jh:
BB checks, MP bets 9,934, fold

Results: 15,052 pot (0 rake)
Final Board: :Jh:

MP wins 15,052

 

[fundiver199]

If I am playing this hand, its as an open push, since I am not happy with any other outcome than everybody folding. So rather than just guess, its time to pull out ICMizer and check, if we can profitably open jam in this spot. I cant do an exact simulation, because the maximum amount of players in MTT mode is 500. But pretending, that this was a 1.500-man MTT, where 10% needed to bust before the payouts, ICMizer only wants you to jam JJ+, AQ+, ATs+, A3s-A5s, KQs.

So clearly this is a spot, where a hand like 88 dont perform well, and the reason for that is the lack of blockers. Most of the players behind are only supposed to call with QQ+ and AK, and because of that there is not much difference between 22 and 99. Neither of those hands have blockers to the calling range, and they have almost the same equity when called. So this is a solid fold, even though on the surface it seems a bit tight