$11 NLHE MTT: Sunday 1/4 mil - TT on the turn: protect or shut down?

[Lofwyr]

This happened during the Sunday 1/4mil with about 8200 players left...so nearing the $ of top 5400. I had been tag-y and not very active lately, mainly hit some hands early in the event to build a big stack, then just maintained that stack since.

The entire hand seems fairly standard until the cold-call from the SB on the flop. Both players involved were fairly weak-tight and around 15-16 VPIP over ~45 hands.

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t50 - 9 players - View hand 1124555
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t4211 M = 4.01
CO: t10069 M = 9.59
BTN: t8120 M = 7.73
SB: t10634 M = 10.13
BB: t8885 M = 8.46
UTG: t2200 M = 2.10
Hero (UTG+1): t15606 M = 14.86
UTG+2: t3700 M = 3.52
MP1: t10008 M = 9.53

Pre Flop: (t1050) Hero is UTG+1 with T ♥ T ♣
1 fold, Hero raises to t1000, UTG+2 calls t1000, 4 folds, SB calls t800, 1 fold

Flop: (t3850) 6 ♦ 4 ♦ 3 ♣ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t2700, UTG+2 calls t2650 all in, SB calls t2700

Turn: (t11900) 9 ♠ (3 players - 1 is all in)
SB checks, Hero ???

Is this a spot where I should shove to get value/protect against overs+FD or check back?

 

[brackdog]

Here’s my attempt to unravel this. Villain has to realize that an overpair is in your range, and he caught something on the flop that was worth calling off 25% of his stack. So I'd think he's probably calling pre-flop with a smaller pair or a (suited) A-baby. I can’t rationalize that post-flop call from a weak-tight player holding big cards.

Some possible holdings (66, 44, 33) hit that flop hard. He's not folding those hands to a shove, and checking behind on the turn forces him to act on the river. Other hands (A6, A4, 55) are ahead of AK, AQs and could very well be best; would a weak-tight player check these on the turn hoping for a cheap showdown? Others (Ad-5d, Ad-3d, A5o) would give him on good draws post flop (10-10 is a 3:2 dog against Ad5d with that board and even money against Ad2d, Ad3d or Ad7d) and although many of these hands shrink up a bit with that bricky turn card, you don’t price him out with a shove.

If he is drawing, danger cards on the river should be pretty obvious (any diamond, A, 7, or deuce). In the absence of those, I'd check the river if he checks, make a crying call of a small bet and fold to a substantial one, figuring that a big river bet from a weak-tight player has to be a made set.

BD

 

[thunder1276]

I would shove here to make him pay if he has two overs or a draw. I am assuming that a weak tight player would raise you pre with Q's K's or A's so I am not to worried about those. The hands that he may play like this that have you beat are J's or a set. He may very well also have 7's or 8's a flush draw or a couple big cards. You have most of this range beat so I shove and hope he doesn't have a set. If he doesn't have you beat and calls the worst situation would be two face cards and a flush draw giving him 15 outs and you would win here 70% of the time.

 

[c9h13no3]

Easy jam. The stack to pot ratio is 2.7 on the flop and you have an over pair. Get the nickels in.

 

[cjatud2012]

I'd get this in, there's not a whole ton we're afraid of right now but there are about a million terrible river cards.