$11 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: is there value on river?

omnom8

omnom8

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No Limit Holdem Tournament
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
Stacks:
UTG Hero (213k) 21bb
UTG+1 (196k) 20bb
MP1 (423k) 42bb
MP2 (163k) 16bb
CO (771k) 77bb
BTN (286k) 29bb
SB (306k) 31bb
BB (266k) 27bbBlinds: 5k/10k Ante 1.3k
Pre-Flop: (25k, 8 players) Hero is UTG A:heart: J:club:

Hero calls 10k, 5 folds, SB calls 5k, BB checks

Flop: J:heart: J:spade: K:spade: (40k, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 22k, SB calls 22k, BB folds
Turn: 10:heart: (84k, 2)
SB checks, Hero bets 46k, SB calls 46k
River: Q:spade: (176k, 2)
SB checks, Hero ???
 
t1riel

t1riel

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Check. Your opponent's actions seems like chasing a flush.
 
Flight777sem

Flight777sem

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It’s a check I guess. He is not going to fold any better hand and he is not going to pay you with the worst.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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I think we have a hand that's squarely in the check portion of our range.

We block boats which is good, but when a one liner is on the board, and with the given action, it's very possible villain has the same broadway as us (which is never folding) and fairly UNlikley that he has a 9 here. It's also very hard for him to just have trips here, and I sincerely doubt we ever get looked up by a hand like KQ.

This could be a spot to experiment with some very small sizings like 10-15% pot, but I'm doubtful it's better than checking. We might get called by KQ, J9, but probably nothing else worse and I don't think there's enough combos to make that worth trying to get value since there are so many flushes and boats possible.

The other option of course would be to jam as a bluff, seeing as we block boats, but we ALSO block broadway (which would be the primary hand we could hope to fold out as a bluff by repping a bigger hand than we have) and we DON'T block flushes (which is a hand we'd love to have fold but I think is unlikely to get away if it peels two and then gets there). So I don't really like that either. I prefer a check.
 
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