$11 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Rebuy: Call or Fold -- Flopped top pair on 3bet hand in BSB play.

[wherbie718]

$11 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Rebuy: Call or Fold -- Flopped top pair on 3bet hand in BSB play.

Hey everyone,

Had an interesting hand here that I'd love some perspective on. Blinds were 150/300 with a 30 ante. I believe the re-entry period was still open at this point. This player was relatively new to the table and I hadn't had any history with the villain.

Merge - $10+$1|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 19,690 (VPIP: 13.16, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, hands: 115)
VILLAIN (SB): 10,470 (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (BB): 10,700
UTG: 10,661 (VPIP: 18.10, PFR: 13.44, 3Bet Preflop: 7.00, Hands: 316)
UTG+1: 12,867 (VPIP: 15.12, PFR: 7.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
UTG+2: 5,646 (VPIP: 12.90, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 31)
MP: 4,299 (VPIP: 16.44, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 73)
MP+1: 25,689 (VPIP: 34.15, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
CO: 3,755 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)

9 players post ante of 30, SB posts SB 150, Hero posts BB 300

Pre Flop: (pot: 720) Hero has A:diamond: 9:spade:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, VILLAIN raises to 600, Hero raises to 1,800, SB calls 1,200

Flop: (3,870, 2 players) A:spade: 4:spade: Q:club:
VILLAIN bets 8,640 and is all-in

WAT??? I’m thinking this is a “please, go away and let me have this pot” bet. What do you think?

 

[warturtle7]

I think he can have hands like Q10 (spades) and has a lot of outs if he is behind and has roughly 40/50% of winning at show down or 44 and is trying to get value from aces. Q4 or A4 are hands its more unlikely he is holding.
Did you called?

 

[WiZZiM]

just call his raise and see a flop, you want the pot under control, not out of control with really small SPR's.

As played, we obviously feel A9 is ahead of his range, and this bet usually signifies a draw in my experience. call, rebuy if he has it, if not, you have a real nice stack.

 

[DGOOD]

Deffinately just call preflop. No need to to play a big bloated pot with A9 off. It keeps your hand more disquised, and could lead to more value on later streets.

As played i think you have to call the shove. I agree WiZZiM he is probally on a draw. But is he really wanting to get it in with a flush draw or a gut shot? He must be a pretty bad player if so. And also if he is just raising hoping for a fold what is he really thinking you will fold? This flop hits almost all of your range. I dont know what this guy is doing really haha.

 

[byrnsiey330]

Probably a semi-bluff. Call and hope that the poker gods are on your side that day.

 

[WiZZiM]

And also if he is just raising hoping for a fold what is he really thinking you will fold? This flop hits almost all of your range. I dont know what this guy is doing really haha.

you are assuming he is thinking, that is not a good assumption

 

[Arjonius]

Probably a semi-bluff. Call and hope that the poker gods are on your side that day.

What's the basis for putting him on a semi-bluff? How probable is it? And based on this probability plus the rest of his range, what are the pros and cons of putting your tournament at risk in this particular situation?

 

[byrnsiey330]

What's the basis for putting him on a semi-bluff? How probable is it? And based on this probability plus the rest of his range, what are the pros and cons of putting your tournament at risk in this particular situation?

I put him on a semi bluff because I believe his range to be very wide opening from the SB. I have him on 22-JJ, suited connectors 56+, Ax, K5+, Q7+ Pre, in which case our equity is ~70%. I believe that if he was holding QQ-AA or AK he would have four bet instead of flatting. Now with the all in post flop, I have him on AQ, 44, and still suited connectors (semi-bluff), a set of 4's I think is possibility as is AQ, in which case it's over for us. Against this range our equity is still 59.5%. So putting your tournament life on something like this risky but I call and rebuy if he has me beat. And we can't discount this being complete air. I definitely understand folding, I just feel like in this case I would call.

 

[Arjonius]

I put him on a semi bluff because I believe his range to be very wide opening from the SB. I have him on 22-JJ, suited connectors 56+, Ax, K5+, Q7+ Pre, in which case our equity is ~70%. I believe that if he was holding QQ-AA or AK he would have four bet instead of flatting. Now with the all in post flop, I have him on AQ, 44, and still suited connectors (semi-bluff), a set of 4's I think is possibility as is AQ, in which case it's over for us. Against this range our equity is still 59.5%. So putting your tournament life on something like this risky but I call and rebuy if he has me beat. And we can't discount this being complete air. I definitely understand folding, I just feel like in this case I would call.

How accurate is it to describe this range as putting him on a semi-bluff?

 

[wherbie718]

My thought here was that he couldn't be on a large A because with AK or AQ, he'd likely have 4bet pre flop with a big hand. Additionally, a hand like A4 or 44 would likely allow me to put more money in the pot before pouncing on the flop or turn.

The line taken by the villain seemed to be more of an A or flush draw (Q high or K high). I don't necessarily want to be gambling at this point but I'm pretty sure I'm ahead of the villain's range here. I didn't think the villain was on complete air here, but the A being suited with the 4 here takes a lot of combos I'd be more worried about out of the villain's range here since he can't be drawing to the nut flush with top pair.

Does my thinking there make sense or am I missing something there?

Let me know -- Thanks!

 

[Scrover]

At first look, it looks like it was a stop and go play blind vs blind in the sense that he called OOP and shoved with a small stack (compared to the pot). Your hand is too good to fold. You have an ace with a good kicker. Chances are, you are up against a queen and occasionally and ace or a bluff.

Raise preflop is fine. Would have just jammed myself instead to pick up the dead money. If we don't, then we have a good hand that dominates other weak aces opponent will be calling with.

 

[Poker Orifice]

just call his raise and see a flop, you want the pot under control, not out of control with really small SPR's.

As played, we obviously feel A9 is ahead of his range, and this bet usually signifies a draw in my experience. call, rebuy if he has it, if not, you have a real nice stack.

100% this ^

On 33 effective bb's, I hate the 3bet pre

 

[Scrover]

On second thought, if you think this person knows some common sense, don't you think opponent wouldn't shove the nuts or close to the nuts here? I usually don't believe so, but you know, there are people in these tournaments that can shove because they have no idea how to extract value (but most people do).

My fault for saying that I would have jammed with 30ish BB's. I thought blinds were 600/1200 and we only had something like 8BB.

 

[Jblocher1]

Flat pre.... Call this shove.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I agree with the flatting pre. 3 betting isn't terrible, but what do you do if he 4bets you? you fold probably... Since you'll have position throughout the hand, and a pretty decent hand for BvB I like pot controlling with the A9. 2nd choice would be to jam pre...but that's a lot of risk to take for not a ton of chips and if we're confident in our post flop play, lets play a small pot in position with a decent hand and see what develops.

On the flop....it's sick but I think I'd tank call here. You're beating most aces. Don't you think AK would have 4bet preflop? I do. AQ is the least likely holding because I think they might 4bet preflop but the DEFINITELY would try to extract some chips with top 2 on the flop in a BvB spot like this... also A4 and 44 are possibilities, but I don't think too likely because again why would they just ship their stack with such a strong hand right here? Wouldn't they try to extract?

what other aces do we need to be afraid of? AJ and AT would make sense preflop, and would be beating us. But wouldn't both of those hands be a little tiny bit scared of jamming into you since YOU could have the AQ or AK? Wouldn't those hands bet smaller?

Then that brings us to the Q hands. This is personally what I think he has. something like KQ or JQ. He is hoping he can blow you off a weak ace.

There are also semi-bluffs in his range. lots of spade hands he could be doing this with.

Add all that up, and I think you gotta call and hope. Sometimes he's gonna show you AT and you rebuy...sometimes he'll have AT and you chop chop. sometimes you'll be crushed by 2 pair or a set. sometimes you'll be right and he'll have a draw but then he'll hit it....but all together you stand to make a nice stack by calling off here.