$10 SNG: Squeeze, call or Fold?

[calibanboy]

Have we got a big enough hand & enough fold equity to squeeze this?

Whats your preferred play and why?

Table Speed 1329977 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 2: GreatDane247 (840)
Seat 3: Calibanboy (1740)
Seat 4: PTTB9x (1720)
Seat 5: herbert0110 (2420)
Seat 6: mattmckay1 (4900)
Seat 7: milizid (2810)
Seat 8: Andyb111 (3570)
Seat 9: olliko (2000)
mattmckay1 posts small blind (100)
milizid posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Calibanboy [ Jd, Ah ]
Andyb111 calls (200)
olliko calls (200)
GreatDane247 calls (200)
Calibanboy

 

[ChuckTs]

Most definitely. Push away; you can't be making a standard raise here - just stick em all in.

Depending on how loose players are, you'll mostly see everyone fold, occasionally see someone call with a small/med pair/weak ace/kq but there's so much dead money in the pot that it's more than worth the gamble of someone calling.

I'd say that you actually have to push this.

 

[joeeagles]

On board with the push. Too much dead money in there ( pot is 900), and you can't even think about raising it. I doubt there is a stronger A than yours among those 3 limpers and most times the small/ medium pairs will fold that type of raise.

It's a great spot to push, I would virtually every time in this scenario.

 

[skoldpadda]

Your M is under 6 and you have an unraised pot. Your'e effectively the 2nd shortest stack with 5 players ahead of you (3-4 comfortably) and only 3 get paid. This is a no brainer push.

 

[calibanboy]

This is interesting as I understand the Squeeze play and also the importance of M. That said the other side of the equation is tourny Life.

My very first initial thought was the squeeze - all-in.

However I really hate AJ. Especially offsuit. Its too week. I dominate nothing and am likely to get a caller - and if I do I will be dominated. To me, (even in a speed tny), I can find a better spot. I think Tny life is more important in this case, especially as I have 9-10 hands left with Fold equity. ( 1400 is still 7xbb )

I decided to fold. I would have squeezed with AA,KK,QQ AK. Nothing else, potentially JJ.

I went on to come second, by playing positional poker with well timed aggressive All-ins. (Some bluffs, some not ).

I recognise that had I pushed I am likely to have won the hand or split it now that I have seen the results. ( 6,7 would have folded ). However, I am not convinced its the long term best play here in a SNG. Theres too many players in and the chance of a slow play by one of them is too high.

I prefer the fact that I am in and theres a good chance with the pot building high that 1 or more players will crash here.

I guess there are different ways of playing. I am not saying I am right. However I do think M has different values in a SNG rather than MTT.

Table Speed 1329977 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 2: GreatDane247 (840)
Seat 3: Calibanboy (1740)
Seat 4: PTTB9x (1720)
Seat 5: herbert0110 (2420)
Seat 6: mattmckay1 (4900)
Seat 7: milizid (2810)
Seat 8: Andyb111 (3570)
Seat 9: olliko (2000)
mattmckay1 posts small blind (100)
milizid posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Calibanboy [ Jd, Ah ]
Andyb111 calls (200)
olliko calls (200)
GreatDane247 calls (200)
Calibanboy folds.
PTTB9x folds.
herbert0110 folds.
mattmckay1 calls (100)
milizid checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7d, 6h, Js ]
mattmckay1 checks.
milizid bets (800)
Andyb111 folds.
olliko folds.
GreatDane247 calls (640)
GreatDane247 is all-In.
mattmckay1 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 7h ]
Creating Main Pot with $2280 with GreatDane247
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2280
Board: [ 7d 6h Js 2d 7h ]

GreatDane247 balance 0, lost 840 [ Ac Jh ] [ two pairs, Jacks and Sevens -- Ac,Jh,Js,7d,7h ]
Calibanboy balance 1740, didn't bet (folded)
PTTB9x balance 1720, didn't bet (folded)
herbert0110 balance 2420, didn't bet (folded)
mattmckay1 balance 4700, lost 200 (folded)
milizid balance 4250, bet 1000, collected 2440, net +1440 [ 7s 6d ] [ a full house, Sevens full of Sixes -- 7s,7d,7h,6d,6h ]
Andyb111 balance 3370, lost 200 (folded)
olliko balance 1800, lost 200 (folded)


I am interested to here your views on my views

 

[ChuckTs]

Folding here is terrible tbh. Unless you've got reads on the first limper being someone who's limped monsters on multiple occasions in the past, you have to push this.

No offense, but this is incredibly weak-tight. Nobody's shown any significant strength yet, and you have a solid hand for pushing. Rarely do people limp with AQ+ and JJ+ at this point. We can make a bunch of pairs we'd normally be racing with fold, aswell as a bunch of hands we're 60/40 with.

Again, this is a must-push. MUST PUSH!!!!

 

[skoldpadda]

Yeah, like Chuck said. You can't reasonably expect a better hand than AJo shorthanded with your M so low. Waiting would be a horrible decision and doubling up would leave you in the same situation with a low (red zone M). Don't be results oriented here! Like I said before and ChuckTs says in different words, this is a no brainer.

 

[joeeagles]

Sorry Caliban, I respect your decision and your poker skills, but I disagree on your pushing range with a low M on turbo tourneys, particularly with 3 limpers already in.

As I posted before its very improbable that 1 of the limpers has a better A than you, and small/medium pairs will likely fold. If you say that you will push only with AA, KK, QQ or AK and nothing less, that is excessively tight. Think about it.

 

[NineLions]

I'm wondering what GreatDane is doing, with half your stack size even, and the same hand.

'twere me in each position, I would have pushed from his position, pushed from yours, folded from the blinds.

 

[calibanboy]

Hi Guys, I understand your points of view. I knew this would be an interesting hand to discuss, hence my post. I have a few comments.

- I do not necessarily need a better hand than AJ if I play positional poker. with rising blinds.

- Folding and staying in is not necessarily a terrible decision. It may not be the prefered play. But its not terrible.

- Aj offsuit is a teir 4 HAnd. ( sklansky - holdem poker advanced players). same as T9s, KQ, 88, QTs, 98s, J9s KTs. My question is would you squeeze with these hands too???

- If you squeeze and get a call from opponent they are likely to be aa,kk,qq,jj,AK,AQ. Yet against all those hands you are at best 30% and most the time <25%. ( I admit I may get a coin flip against a Donk with underpair and I get value for the dead money in these occasions)

I guess what I am saying is That I think at these stakes I think I can get similar or better equity betting at my terms against 1 or two players who I can single out.

Maybe I should be more aggressive like you say?

 

[calibanboy]

I'm wondering what GreatDane is doing, with half your stack size even, and the same hand.

'twere me in each position, I would have pushed from his position, pushed from yours, folded from the blinds.

Hi Ninelions, you are very right. seeing the person in front of me "call" 25% of is stack was rather offputting. I new he was all-in no matter what. Also a call from him reeked a bit.

 

[Irexes]

This is a push.

The only player you should be concerned about having you dominated is the guy who was first in the pot and even that's rare with the blinds at this level. Subsequent players are extremely unlikely to have JJ+ or AQ or AK. AK and AQ are particularly unlikely as very few people slow play them in an opened pot. At this point in the SnG you should have enough info on the villains to know if this is likely and this should also be a major factor in your play.

Those tier 4 hands are all relatively comparable preflop unopened. Given a context like this there is a world of difference between 9Ts etc and AJo.

If you push you have a squeeze, you have equity and the worst you should expect a call from is 88-TT on those rare occassions you get called. Any short stack who feels obliged to call you are dominating often and are a coinflip the rest.

You talk about using positional play to win. What is positional play if not a push here?

 

[calibanboy]

This is a push.

The only player you should be concerned about having you dominated is the guy who was first in the pot and even that's rare with the blinds at this level. Subsequent players are extremely unlikely to have JJ+ or AQ or AK. AK and AQ are particularly unlikely as very few people slow play them in an opened pot. At this point in the SnG you should have enough info on the villains to know if this is likely and this should also be a major factor in your play.

Those tier 4 hands are all relatively comparable preflop unopened. Given a context like this there is a world of difference between 9Ts etc and AJo.

If you push you have a squeeze, you have equity and the worst you should expect a call from is 88-TT on those rare occassions you get called. Any short stack who feels obliged to call you are dominating often and are a coinflip the rest.

You talk about using positional play to win. What is positional play if not a push here?

Its fair to say i am outnumbered here then

The difference between pushing now and later is that AJ is (IMHO) not strong enough to get through 3 players who have already invested ( one seriously short stacked and all relatively low M ) and also a Sb and BB who could have anything. At the end of the day AJ is only tier 4.

I would prefer to go all-in on the button or cut-off against folk who have not invested any outlay - especially when most the folk at the table all have low M and any call is threatening their tny life.

Please understand that I do understand the squeeze play. I do often play it. I just do not like it here, I feel i get better long term value elsewhere in this SNG based on the dynamics in play.

I think i need to review this again in the morning. I posted this hand as I knew quite a few people would disagree with my play as soon as i did it. ( played it ). Its always good to get others opnions and discuss hands/plays like this to keep focused.

What I am a little surpised about is that everyone firmly thinks this is a push. Does not anyone think its a little marginal?.

 

[Irexes]

I wonder if you are perhaps getting the purpose of the tier rankings confused. I've not read Sklansky beyond familiarity with some of the key concepts, but I can't imagine the principle is to group hands into bands for all purposes. Preflop unopened then yes diverse hands have similar value. But here you are clearly playing against a range that you are ahead of with AJ and not with 9Ts.

There's 900 in the pot and you can take it more often than not uncontested. When you are called you will win your fair share. If the blinds have JJ+ then so be it, even against KK and AQ, AK you have a % win. And you want marginal calls from short stacks here with Axs etc

Massive equity here and a perfect squeeze opportunity.

Out of interest what are your reads and your table image?

A fold isn't awful, but the push is a far stronger play.

 

[calibanboy]

My Table image was Tight, tight, tight. Possibly too tight in this SNG. I know that this supports the squeeze play massively.

My view was that GreatDane was going to call no mater what and that Andyb111 could easily have qq+ ( slow play ) as he doubled up in a trappy manner in a earlier hand. ( 2P check-raise-all in I think )

I felt that my tight image enables me to steal in the future. I have invested nothing so far in this hand and would prefer to push on my terms when the risk levels are lower ( even if reward was also lower).

You are right about sklansky and the use of the hands. My point is AJ is not that strong.

I take on board what people say.

 

[Irexes]

My Table image was Tight, tight, tight. Possibly too tight in this SNG. I know that this supports the squeeze play massively.

My view was that GreatDane was going to call no mater what and that Andyb111 could easily have qq+ ( slow play ) as he doubled up in a trappy manner in a earlier hand. ( 2P check-raise-all in I think )

I felt that my tight image enables me to steal in the future. I have invested nothing so far in this hand and would prefer to push on my terms when the risk levels are lower ( even if reward was also lower).

You are right about sklansky and the use of the hands. My point is AJ is not that strong.

I take on board what people say.

Fair play on the image of the initial limper, though the kind of person who traps with two pair is not necessarily the same as those who limp big pocket pairs.. it's a fair comment though.

I think you want a call from the short stack with AJ and I think you get it with a lot you dominate.

As for your image... as you say that supports the squeeze.

All that said if you are going to err, it's always better to do it on the side of folding

 

[joeeagles]

No, its not marginal. For reasons already explained.

Sklansky's hand ratings are great and you should refer to them all the time. You must, however, understand that those ratings are strickly intended for limit poker cash games, and they don't apply to tournaments because, as you already know, the structure is much different. So lets not even mention that.

With a low M and blinds rapidly rising, don't you think you need to loosen up a little? I think you know that, and the whole reason you don't like this push is that you're worried you'll get called and someone will have you dominated.

This, of course, could happen if you get called by the button or the blinds but it's extremely rare that one of the limpers will have a better A, as I posted before (no need to get back back on that). So its a calculated risk which is very much worth taking because of the dead money in there (900, which is more than half your stack), your small stack and the increasing blinds. You will take this down right there a high % of times and when you get called you will lose and win some, but the play is definitely +EV in the long run. No doubt about it.

This is the 3rd time I post on this thread pretty much disagreeing with you, I hope you don't take it personal. I just want you to think about it. Before you posted results I said I would push virtually every time in that scenario, and the reasons are explained above.

Glad you came in 2nd, hope you win the next.

 

[calibanboy]

No, its not marginal. For reasons already explained.

Sklansky's hand ratings are great and you should refer to them all the time. You must, however, understand that those ratings are strickly intended for limit poker cash games, and they don't apply to tournaments because, as you already know, the structure is much different. So lets not even mention that.

With a low M and blinds rapidly rising, don't you think you need to loosen up a little? I think you know that, and the whole reason you don't like this push is that you're worried you'll get called and someone will have you dominated.

This, of course, could happen if you get called by the button or the blinds but it's extremely rare that one of the limpers will have a better A, as I posted before (no need to get back back on that). So its a calculated risk which is very much worth taking because of the dead money in there (900, which is more than half your stack), your small stack and the increasing blinds. You will take this down right there a high % of times and when you get called you will lose and win some, but the play is definitely +EV in the long run. No doubt about it.

This is the 3rd time I post on this thread pretty much disagreeing with you, I hope you don't take it personal. I just want you to think about it. Before you posted results I said I would push virtually every time in that scenario, and the reasons are explained above.

Glad you came in 2nd, hope you win the next.

I am fine with your comments Joe. Comments/feedback are the reason for my post.

FYI, I am a cash game player. April was the first non profitable in quite a while after a row of runner runner hands. Hence I am having a month off and playing only one sit and go a day through may to recharge but keep my hand in.

I have Never really played them before now. My dislike for AJ (os) comes from cash background where it is a potential trouble hand. ( eg marginal )

I have understood all of what you and others had said, but am exploring the other potential argument threads to consolidate my SNG thoughts. I recognise there is a strategy for SNG's and I am testing. The question I am ( hopefully) subtlely exploring in this thread is do you play for money and build from there (when SH'd) or play for first when theres still 8 People in at higher risk. I realise that the two are not mutually exclusive.

So far so good on my May experiment.

Thanks for comments.

 

[rob5775]

You have to push this. You have three limpers, dead money, and hand thats decent. Your asking for advice in SnGs as you mostly play cash games... well listen to Chuck, Irexes, etc..

At this point in the sng, with the blinds rising and your M going down, you can't sit and wait for AK or AA. The perfect situation rarely just happens. The point of pushing here is to acculumate chips to win, not limp into third. If you miss spots like this, you stack will dwindle to the point you'll probably have to make a move with a worse hand (maybe) and have no value to your push because there will be no fold equity. There is an excellent article on this in the CC articles. HoH also talks about it in the bubble play section.

And I would never fold here. Just my 2c.