$10 NLHE STT: $$10 NLHE STT: +EV bluff shove?

[loopmeister]

Villain is 43/0/2 over 23 hands. Flop fold to raise is 2/3.

Pacific Poker - $10+$1|25/50 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: 840.00
Hero (BB): 1,642.00
UTG: 4,899.00
MP: 2,664.00
CO: 1,754.00
BTN: 3,201.00

SB posts SB 25.00, Hero posts BB 50.00

Pre Flop: (75.00) Hero has J♣ T♥

fold, fold, CO calls 50.00, BTN calls 50.00, SB calls 25.00, Hero checks

Flop: (200.00, 4 players) A♠ 8♣ 7♥
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 200.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to 1,592.00 (All-in)

I have blockers to the big straight draws; so he has a weak Ace or 8/7 enough to justify a shove here?

 

[IamRude]

You're risking 1592 to win 375.
Pretty risky move this early in a tournament.

You need this to work 80% (1592/(375+1592)) of the time for it to be +EV.

It'd be hard for him to make a call with anything less than AK+(2pairs, sets, etc). You're only ever going to be called with those hands that beat you anyways.

I think betting less will make your hand look stronger if you want to try and bluff at this. I'd just give up and fold tbh.

 

[loopmeister]

"It'd be hard for him to make a call with anything less than AK+(2pairs, sets, etc). " That was my thinking in making the shove. I figured he doesn't have that often enough, but let's see.

Assuming he only bets with a made hand or OESD, his range is Ax, 77+, K8, K7, Q8, Q7, 78, 56, 9T. (132 + 66 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 9 + 16 + 12 = 283 hands)

What is he calling the shove with?

I'd guess
77,88, AT+, 78, A7, A8. (6+6+9+48+9+9+9=96 hands)

96/283 = 34% of the time. Whoops.

Ok, so I have 18.5% equity in the pot with my gutshot, so

cEV = 0.66 * (400) + 0.34*(0.185*3384 - 0.815*1592) = 35.7

If I've done the sums right (a few glasses of wine with lunch today ) it's not too terrible, but worse than I might have thought -- esp since he might look me up with QQ,JJ as well, but less likely.

 

[IamRude]

"It'd be hard for him to make a call with anything less than AK+(2pairs, sets, etc). " That was my thinking in making the shove. I figured he doesn't have that often enough, but let's see.

like i said, I think this is a really risky play considering the blinds, regardless of what he has.

if your math is correct, he shows up with hands that can call 34% of the time. For this move to breakeven you need him to call less than 20% of the time.

i really don't know how to use the equity numbers, but i cant see him calling being profitable for you.
edit: i also dont know how to add suckout percentages either, but i dont see that changing the equation enough for this move to be profitable

 

[loopmeister]

The equity numbers come from Pokerstove. You type in his calling range, and your holding and the board and it calculates how often you win, tie and lose the pot. Here I win 18.5% of the time.

So when he calls 34% of the time, I may be behind, but roughly 1/5 of those times I suck out and double up (plus the blinds).

The overall expected value is simply the sum of all the possibilities weighted by the probability of them ocurring. If EV is positive, it's a profitable play (wrt chips).

 

[OzExorcist]

FWIW there's a few ways of interpreting the fold to flop raise stat. One is that villain is willing to bet-fold on flops. The other is that he's going to start getting sick of folding and make a stand soon. So I wouldn't be so sure about him folding hands worse than AT or even about him folding OESDs. You've made a huge overbet and that has to make him suspicious as well.

 

[loopmeister]

You think raising to 600 and then (presumably) shoving the turn gets more folds than just shoving?

 

[c9h13no3]

1) Villain is never folding any ace.
2) Just bang this up to 400 preflop and take it down.

 

[OzExorcist]

You think raising to 600 and then (presumably) shoving the turn gets more folds than just shoving?

No - as I alluded to and c9 just came out and stated, villain is pretty much never folding an ace here. If he's not folding one to an overbet shove on the flop he's definitely never folding one to a smaller shove in a bigger pot on the turn.

What I really think is this is a horrible spot to bluff. We gain very little when we get the villain to fold and we get knocked out most of the time when he calls. Tiny reward, huge risk.

 

[loopmeister]

Point taken.

 

[liguolong]

well, if you get called, you only have a chance of about 17 percent to get a straight, and if you don't get straight you will lose most of the time once you get called. Also, shoving is huge over bet, which is far too dangerous, especially after his bet on flop. I don't think cards such as K7, K8, Q7, Q8 should be in his hand range. Also in practice, people tends to call more than they should which make the equity of shoving worse.