$10 NLHE MTT: final table play

[seeyouthru]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software - http://drivehud.com/

6000/12000 ante 10%
UTG ($83711) [VPIP: 46.2% | PFR: 17% | AGG: 19.6% | hands: 227]
HJ ($114190) [VPIP: 26.6% | PFR: 7.9% | AGG: 9.8% | Hands: 230]
CO ($563421) [VPIP: 38.8% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 19.6% | Hands: 88]
BTN ($430299) [VPIP: 27.1% | PFR: 9.6% | AGG: 27.5% | Hands: 220]
SB ($57089) [VPIP: 26.2% | PFR: 3.9% | AGG: 10% | Hands: 105]
HERO ($151290) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 16.3% | Hands: 7134]

Dealt to Hero: 6h 7c

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $25200, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $151290 (allin), CO Calls $126090
CO shows: Jd 9s SO FINAL TABLE FINAL 7 REMAIN, VILLIAN WITH CHIPLEAD WAS OPENING A LOT AS THEY SHOULD HERO IN THE BB DECIDED TO SHOVE IN VILLIANS FACE BUT VILLIAN MADE AN ICM SUICIDE CALL I GUESS, WHAT DO U THINK?

 

[UkoChebuko]

Suicidal shove, that's I think. It is like "I am too short, the movie is so interesting, whatever".

 

[Viparida]

A bad play, he had much more chips than you. Besides that you don`t know what was his hand j9 was a clown call but he could have Ax or a middle pair.

 

[300HPGOD]

Whats the difference between a great bluff and a bad bluff? The answer is getting called. This is one of those plays where if villain folds to you, you look like genius but if they call you look pretty bad. I dont like the play simply because you dont know how often villain will fold. If they are calling J9 off here, which I agree is a terrible call, then they are calling off a lot here which makes your play nonsensical. You would need to be pretty sure villain would be folding everything except maybe something like top 20% of hands here to make this play viable. Even though we know he is opening wide, that does not mean that he does not have it here plus if you are going to do this with a hand I would prefer that it would be suited as you would get a few more points of equity if they call.

If the villain is doing this as often as you say then you should have plenty of chances to do this sitting to their left with 12BB left. This is a fold here and look to make the same play later on or open jam yourself with a better hand in either case.

 

[ph_il]

you're exactly the type of players i love when i'm at the final table in last place. the table sheriffs that need to show the aggressive stacks they can't be pushed around. can't tell you how many ladder jumps from 9/9 or 8/8 to top 5 spots i've made just by watching mid stacks clash with big stacks in unnecessary spots. ez money.

this is such a bad pay for a number of reasons. it's icm suicide. you have 2 much shorter stacks than you and you're slightly ahead of another stack, putting you in 3/6 spot. you have a player with < 5 bbs at the table. why are you bluff jamming 67o with a 12 bb stack? it makes no sense.

think of it this way, you just bust out of the final table where you had a good chance at locking down 3rd place or, at a minimum, at least take 4th place with 2 very short stacks...and you took 6th with 67o. just not worth it.

do i think jamming here is bad against an aggressive villain? no. there are plenty of hands you can easily jam with and, yes, you still run the risk of busting out in 6th, but you'll also give yourself much better equity to win as well. 67o vs j9o, you still have ~35-40% equity to win, which puts villain a close equity edge spot but the problem is, you're doing this with an opponent that has as low as <5 bbs. there is no need to put mtt life at risk on the final table in close over/under equity spots when you have higher payouts locked in.

if you are going to jam here, i think it's better to pick hands that block co's openers. hands like a10s or ajo block some jx and ax combinations. hands like ak and aq are also really good hands to jam, and i would be 3betting with qq+.

and for the villain, although the call with j9o is a bit on the loose side, there is no icm risk for them. if they win, they're up 150k and if they lose, they still have 400k. if you lose, you're out in 6th. so, i'm not hating the villain's call as much as i dislike your jam with 67o. you're putting yourself more at risk than villain is and villain could easily have a much stronger holding in this spot. if they're opening with j9o, then j10s+ is in their range, as are mid pairs 77+, and suited ace hands, etc. 67o never ahead here.

to be honest, because of icm, i'm probably folding small pairs, weak broadways, and small suited aces. i think 22-55 i fold. 66+, i jam, hands like qjo, k10s, i fold, and a2s-a8s, i probably fold.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, this is really bad for the reasons stated by others already. There is so much value for you in this spot in simply folding and trying to outlast the 3 shorter stacks. In top of that your hand is pretty bad, and its also not surpricing, that he called you off with J9o. He is the chip leader, so he is playing the rush, and he is not a good player. His gap between VPIP and PFR is way to wide, so of course he call preflop. This is, what 38,8% VPIP tells you. Having a HUD running and then not using the information to your advantage is worse than not having a HUD running.

But lets get a little bit more scientific about this and plug your hand into ICMizer. I dont know the exact payout structure, but with 6 people left its pretty standardized on most poker sites, so I just picked a pokerstars 100 man for the payouts. Now first off ICMizer has him opening 55% of hands, so given you had observed, he was opening a lot, then probably the program has a fairly realistic starting point.

Your pushing range assuming, that he defend correctly, is 24%. This include any pair, any ace, KJ+ and T9s+. But unsurpricingly it does not include 76o. In fact you are losing 0,12% of the price pool making this jam. Villain is supposed to call off with 17% of hands, and again unsurpricingly this does not include J9o. He is losing 0,14% of the price pool with this call. He is however not "committing ICM suicide", because he is not the player at risk.

Now lets look at, what happen to your jamming range, if we tell ICMizer, that this guy will call of quite a bit wider. To get J9o included, I need to drag it out to 38% of hands. This is fair, because it makes no sense to assume, he call with J9o but fold anything better. Now you can only profitably rejam 7% of hands, which mean 99+, AJ+, ATs, and 76o loses you a massive 1,14% of the price pool. So unsurpricingly the correct adjustment against a calling station is to bluff him less not more. Hope this analysis helped you understand, why this was not a good play

 

[seeyouthru]

I think, this is really bad for the reasons stated by others already. There is so much value for you in this spot in simply folding and trying to outlast the 3 shorter stacks. In top of that your hand is pretty bad, and its also not surpricing, that he called you off with J9o. He is the chip leader, so he is playing the rush, and he is not a good player. His gap between VPIP and PFR is way to wide, so of course he call preflop. This is, what 38,8% VPIP tells you. Having a HUD running and then not using the information to your advantage is worse than not having a HUD running.

But lets get a little bit more scientific about this and plug your hand into ICMizer. I dont know the exact payout structure, but with 6 people left its pretty standardized on most poker sites, so I just picked a PokerStars 100 man for the payouts. Now first off ICMizer has him opening 55% of hands, so given you had observed, he was opening a lot, then probably the program has a fairly realistic starting point.

Your pushing range assuming, that he defend correctly, is 24%. This include any pair, any ace, KJ+ and T9s+. But unsurpricingly it does not include 76o. In fact you are losing 0,12% of the price pool making this jam. Villain is supposed to call off with 17% of hands, and again unsurpricingly this does not include J9o. He is losing 0,14% of the price pool with this call. He is however not "committing ICM suicide", because he is not the player at risk.

Now lets look at, what happen to your jamming range, if we tell ICMizer, that this guy will call of quite a bit wider. To get J9o included, I need to drag it out to 38% of hands. This is fair, because it makes no sense to assume, he call with J9o but fold anything better. Now you can only profitably rejam 7% of hands, which mean 99+, AJ+, ATs, and 76o loses you a massive 1,14% of the price pool. So unsurpricingly the correct adjustment against a calling station is to bluff him less not more. Hope this analysis helped you understand, why this was not a good play

What do you reckon about JTs in this Exact Spot?

 

[fundiver199]

What do you reckon about JTs in this Exact Spot?

Against a GTO player, it is a slightly profitable jam according to ICMizer. Against any player you could also elect to defend by just calling. Of course this put you in a really bad spot postflop, because he can apply so much ICM-pressure. But maybe he is a bit passive after the flop and will actually sometimes allow you to get to showdown without risking all your chips. Or if he takes bluffing to far, maybe bluff catching is profitable even with huge ICM implications.

If you are not sure, calling will be +EV, there is nothing wrong with just folding, even though you have a hand, you would normally defend. Final table is not "normal", and as someone else said, its not your job to be the table sheriff and show the chip leader, who is boss. Just let him chip up and let the 3 shorter stacks have fun with him and the blinds next.

 

[eetenor]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software - http://drivehud.com/

6000/12000 ante 10%
UTG ($83711) [VPIP: 46.2% | PFR: 17% | AGG: 19.6% | Hands: 227]
HJ ($114190) [VPIP: 26.6% | PFR: 7.9% | AGG: 9.8% | Hands: 230]
CO ($563421) [VPIP: 38.8% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 19.6% | Hands: 88]
BTN ($430299) [VPIP: 27.1% | PFR: 9.6% | AGG: 27.5% | Hands: 220]
SB ($57089) [VPIP: 26.2% | PFR: 3.9% | AGG: 10% | Hands: 105]
HERO ($151290) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 16.3% | Hands: 7134]

Dealt to Hero: 6h 7c


UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $25200, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $151290 (allin), CO Calls $126090
CO shows: Jd 9s SO FINAL TABLE FINAL 7 REMAIN, VILLIAN WITH CHIPLEAD WAS OPENING A LOT AS THEY SHOULD HERO IN THE BB DECIDED TO SHOVE IN VILLIANS FACE BUT VILLIAN MADE AN ICM SUICIDE CALL I GUESS, WHAT DO U THINK?

Thank U 4 Posting

Why would you assume the CO understands ICM strategy? Did you have this player Tagged as a REG player? Did you see hand showdowns that indicated they were a REG player? There are a number of reasons why CO would call not fold so we need to be thinking about those other drivers.

1 Drunk
2 REC player
3 Just gambling
4 Sucking out gives them more pleasure than winning.
5 Thinks J9 is a great AA cracker
6 This Villain wants to get rid of you specifically.

Regardless of the above when we make an ICM based pressure shove we want to have- if called equity hands. 67 off is not in that range.

A good piece of advice to follow is "Never count on a player to fold for your tournament life based on their skill to do so, when you do not know that person" Dnegs


Hope this helps

 

[fundiver199]

A good piece of advice to follow is "Never count on a player to fold for your tournament life based on their skill to do so, when you do not know that person" Dnegs

Also there is no point in focusing on the fact, the opponent made a bad call, when we made a bad bluff ourselfes. As I outlines already, and as you touched on as well, 65o is not a profitable jam even against someone, who defend correctly. To get better at poker we need to find and correct our own mistakes not those of others

 

[mktpppr]

Hello,

This is a very standard fold. You mention ICM, so I assume you understand the math. Someone said its a Top 7% spot, I would go even tighter, maybe 99+ AQs.

There are 2 shorter stacks, 4bb and 8bb, you must fold to ladder up.

Also, your table position isn't bad, you have 2 shorter stacks on your left, wait for a RFI spot and abuse them, due to super-shorty to your right.

The language you used in your post is concerning, if English isn't your first language then its probably just translation, otherwise I think you have mental game leaks (tilt), I speak from experience.

I hope this helps, cheers.

 

[Jon Poker]

Terrible shove justified by us trying to realize how bad the CO call was...sure their call was terrible, but our shove was worse!! We don't block any of the value hands the CO is raising aside from 66 and 77, everything else is wide open. Just a horrible spot to be shoving as a bluff...our shove is pure icm suicide. If we want to win final tables we cannot play like this with wreckless abandon hoping and praying others will make correct folds.