$10 NL HE STT: Push or fold? bubble play

[StealTheButton]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

10

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

I have been trying play more accordingly to what ICM dictates, but this one is a tough. I prefer to play just a little tighter here.
This is a $10 , 6 Max, No Limit, Single Table tourney. 3 players left and I am second in chips with 1644 (8bb), the Small Blind is chip
leader with 6700, and the BB is on life support with 656 chips left (3.5bb).

I am dealt A6 suited on the button. The chip leader could make a looser call with a lot of hands and knock me out. I could fold here and let the chip leader take out
short stack (or double him up) , but considering the prize structure of these tourneys (3rd place gets nothing) I kind of feel that I should play slightly more conservatively, but that ICMizer would probably have me shove

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pokerstars, $18.50 + $1.50 - Hold'em No Limit - 100/200 - 3 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

runningqueens (BU): 1,644 (8 bb)
PA-Holdem7788 (SB): 6,700 (34 bb)
RareAir1223 (BB): 656 (3 bb)

Pre-Flop: (300) Hero (runningqueens) is BTN with A♦ 6♦
runningqueens (BU) raises to 1,644 (all-in), PA-Holdem7788 (SB) calls 1,544, 1 fold

Flop: (3,488) 7♣ A♣ Q♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (3,488) 3♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (3,488) 9♦ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 3,488

Showdown:
runningqueens (BU) shows A♦ 6♦ (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 38%, Flop: 31%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)

PA-Holdem7788 (SB) shows 8♠ A♥ (a pair of Aces - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 62%, Flop: 69%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

PA-Holdem7788 (SB) wins 3,488

 

[fundiver199]

I plugged the hand into ICMizer, and actually A6s is a fold due to the extreme ICM situation. As you say, the middling stack has a lot of incentive to just sit it out and hope, the chipleader bust the shorty. Even if you get called by the shorty and lose to him, its still not great, because now you are the new shorty and in big danger of bubbling. BTNs jamming range at equilibrium is 66+, A9+, A7s+, KQ, KTs. So A6s is just outside the jamming range and loses you 0,16% of the price pool. Typically we should not worry to much about being one hand to narrow or wide, but folding would have been the correct decision here without reads.

 

[StealTheButton]

Haha, yeah I fu**ed that one up. I have to get ICMizer. It wanted $179 and a credit card number. I'd love to get it on sale if possible.

 

[fundiver199]

It wanted $179 and a credit card number. I'd love to get it on sale if possible.

You can start with 1 month or 3 month rather than a full year. Also the basic version will do, unless you want to practice with the MTT Coach.

 

[rhoudini]

Hey StealTheButton, how are you doing?

There is one free tool that you can use while you don't get ICMizer, it is the Holdem Resources Nash ICM Calculator. The only bad thing with it is that you have to type the stacks, blinds and payout information manually for each hand. However, still a great tool.

According to it, from ICM perspective only, you can shove only 66+ A7s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo.
As you see, pretty close, but the correct was to fold.

Worth to notice that your opponent, despite being the chipleader, made a terrible call: he should only call with 6.3%, 77+ AJs+ AQo+.
The complete analysis for push/call ranges can be found here.

 

[StealTheButton]

What's up Rhoudini!
Yes I thought that was a bit of a loose call on his part. How are these tools meant to be used- to study after the hand? Wouldn't the Nash program be more valuable with having to input payout information? I feels that changes things a lot as in the Sit and Go's I play 3rd place is the bubble, but most tournaments it is for a significant amount of money.

 

[rhoudini]

What's up Rhoudini!
Yes I thought that was a bit of a loose call on his part. How are these tools meant to be used- to study after the hand? Wouldn't the Nash program be more valuable with having to input payout information? I feels that changes things a lot as in the Sit and Go's I play 3rd place is the bubble, but most tournaments it is for a significant amount of money.

Yes, the Nash calculator allows you to input the payout distribution: in this case of 6-max, usually it is 65% for 1st and 35% for 2nd place.
Then you can just input 65 and 35 on the prizes fields. That's how I calculated.
I believe it is also possible to input the prizes in dollars, actually, there is no difference, because if it was the final table of a MTT, we could input the prizes directly.