$10 NL HE STT: Playing the low boat on a dubble paired board

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

10

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

Game is a $10 6-man turbo SnG on pokerstars. The opponent was playing VPIP 77 / PFR 15 over 13 hands, all of them from this game.

PokerStars, $9.26 + $0.74 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (6 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 786 (16 bb)
MP: 2,533 (51 bb)
CO: 1,083 (22 bb)
BU: 1,221 (24 bb)
SB: 1,797 (36 bb)
BB (Hero): 1,580 (32 bb)

Pre-Flop: (111) Hero is BB with 5♦ 7♣
2 players fold, CO calls 50, 2 players fold, Hero checks

Flop: (161) 9♠ 9♥ 5♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 50, Hero calls 50

Turn: (261) 5♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 200, Hero calls 200

River: (661) 4♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 777 (all-in), Hero?

 

[mariussica88]

Based on that VPIP I think he is limping or call most open raise by his opponents.

So pre-flop he basically could have almost any 2 cards. Then on the flop he decide to bet and have the initiative, which let me know that he might have something like: any 2 ♠, 9x hands and also some 5x. I don't think he has some premium pocket pair or even a small pair because I believe he would have raise pre-flop.

On turn he decides to bet 2/3 pot so now I really think that he has something like 9x hand.

River is hard to fold there, but I think is the right decision to fold.

PS: I do not play SNG and this is way off my limit, so I'm not an expert but this is my thinking when seeing your hand.

Spoiler

By the way I think he had J9. is good enough to limp and good enough to bet big on the turn

 

[fundiver199]

PS: I do not play SNG and this is way off my limit, so I'm not an expert but this is my thinking when seeing your hand.

A 77 % VPIP even over a small sample like this is never a good player, so the limit does not matter much here. I am playing against a fish, who just happen to have a bit more money than a fish playing for $1

 

[spunka]

even Fish can catch a 9 or a 5 with 7+ kicker, that said the fish i probaly holding an A here, you have 32 BB fish 22 and it is a turbo, so you can call and still be in the game if you lose, so I think a call is okay

 

[Svetluj]

Fish in 10$ tournament… Is 13 hands enough for this conclusion?

 

[fundiver199]

Fish in 10$ tournament… Is 13 hands enough for this conclusion?

With stats as extreme as 77 / 15: Yes. If a good player is running card hot, there will not be such a wide gap between VPIP and PFR. Good players would also not limp from CO, so the limp in itself is another fish tell.

 

[makisaa]

At that point you have the low full house, and wondering if your opponent has the 9 and the higher full house of this situation. I would fold from the turn! I wouldn't sacrifice this amount of chips at this situation.

 

[WellAA]

At that point you have the low full house, and wondering if your opponent has the 9 and the higher full house of this situation. I would fold from the turn! I wouldn't sacrifice this amount of chips at this situation.

If I called 200 on the turn, Why fold 700 on the river? the 4C didn't change anything. That's just throwing money away.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the comments. My intuitive reaction was to fold to his big river bet. But then I started thinking a bit more about the situation, and I felt, that this line with progressively larger sizing on each street looked a bit try hard. If he actually had the nuts, would he not give me a better price to get more action? Also this was someone playing almost every hand, so he can clearly have any hand with a 9 in it. But he can also have every single hand without a 9 in it, and there are far more of those, especially when we see two of the 9´s on the table. So a bit like the hand shared by mariussica88 recently, this might not be a long term profitable call, but I made it, and here is the result:

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[mariussica88]

Sometimes instinct is right. That 4 sealed his fate

 

[fundiver199]

Sometimes instinct is right.

Sure

That 4 sealed his fate

The small flop bet from the opponent is fine. Its mostly for equity denial and to take down the pot, when most of my range has missed completely. The turn bet is also fine. Maybe his sizing is slightly large, but bluffing is definitely the GTO line with, what is now essentially 4 high, since he got counterfeited. On the river he improved to a baby boat, but his hand is to in between to bet for this sizing. Maybe he can go for a small bet for value trying to get called yet again by sticky AX or hands like 66-88. But when he overbet jam, he pretty much force me to always have a better hand, when I call him down. And turning a hand this strong into a bluff makes no sense. So rather than sealing his fate, the 4 on the river could potentially have saved him some chips.

 

[Andyreas]

And turning a hand this strong into a bluff makes no sense.

That's what quite a few players fail to get.

It's fine to bluff when you missed.

Maybe also two streets but when you decide to risk your whole stack on river, it often makes no sense.

Of course some players may still fold if they were just calling with draws but often they don't and then those players risked their whole stack for a bluff. 😱

I also have to still find the right way with my bluffing game but when my c-bets get called and I don't improve on turn or river, I usually give up. While sometimes another bet may be winning the pot if the other player called with bottom pair but also quite a few players just don't bet OOP, even with TP. 🤔

 

[spunka]

overbet jam, he pretty much force me to always have a better hand, when I call him down. And turning a hand this strong into a bluff makes no sense. So rather than sealing his fate, the 4 on the river could potentially have saved him some chips.

Na, he is a fish and he think he has the best hand, on the river, he has 3 of a kind that a huge hand and only the 5 and 9 beats him

" But he can also have every single hand without a 9 in it, and there are far more of those, especially when we see two of the 9´s on the table"
Guess that goes for the 2 fives too, so you may not have a 5 or a 9 especially the way you played it with calling the 2 streets

 

[eetenor]

Game is a $10 6-man turbo SnG on PokerStars. The opponent was playing VPIP 77 / PFR 15 over 13 hands, all of them from this game.

PokerStars, $9.26 + $0.74 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (6 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 786 (16 bb)
MP: 2,533 (51 bb)
CO: 1,083 (22 bb)
BU: 1,221 (24 bb)
SB: 1,797 (36 bb)
BB (Hero): 1,580 (32 bb)

Pre-Flop: (111) Hero is BB with 5♦ 7♣
2 players fold, CO calls 50, 2 players fold, Hero checks

Flop: (161) 9♠ 9♥ 5♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 50, Hero calls 50

Turn: (261) 5♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 200, Hero calls 200

River: (661) 4♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 777 (all-in), Hero?

The question we want to ask is what does the V continue to bet on turn when we call flop and then shoves river when we call again-considering our flatting range has all our 9x in it?
The HUD stats suggest loose passive preflop high Vpip to PFR ratio- the bet sizing on river is wonky though with the double board- the V is targeting a very condensed value range- mostly 5's as we are not holding pairs above a 9 -They may think we are soo bad as to call turn and river with AX.
All the data suggests that the V is leaning bluff heavy here-

Thanks for the comments. My intuitive reaction was to fold to his big river bet. But then I started thinking a bit more about the situation, and I felt, that this line with progressively larger sizing on each street looked a bit try hard. If he actually had the nuts, would he not give me a better price to get more action? Also this was someone playing almost every hand, so he can clearly have any hand with a 9 in it. But he can also have every single hand without a 9 in it, and there are far more of those, especially when we see two of the 9´s on the table. So a bit like the hand shared by mariussica88 recently, this might not be a long term profitable call, but I made it, and here is the result:

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Good read -often when passive preflop players with wide ranges take this type of line on this type of board we can call because as you put it they are trying too hard to get folds- As to this time we can never be certain if it was bluff or value based on how little the V knows about building a proper strategy- limping 44 is not part of a limping strategy--- sizing is too polar on turn- shoving river for value expects V to call too wide, this V could very well think you would call with A high after all they might

Top post was composed earlier did not post then saw the results-did not realize it would save the first and post both

 

[fundiver199]

That's what quite a few players fail to get.

It's fine to bluff when you missed.

Maybe also two streets but when you decide to risk your whole stack on river, it often makes no sense.

Of course some players may still fold if they were just calling with draws but often they don't and then those players risked their whole stack for a bluff. 😱

I also have to still find the right way with my bluffing game but when my c-bets get called and I don't improve on turn or river, I usually give up. While sometimes another bet may be winning the pot if the other player called with bottom pair but also quite a few players just don't bet OOP, even with TP. 🤔

Trippel barrel bluffing is not bad in itself, if you do it with the right hand, against the right opponent and on good runouts. The issue here is, his hand is to in between to overbet the river. Even if he had 9X, it would not be a great sizing to use, since he would fold out most of the hands, he is trying to get value from.

Na, he is a fish and he think he has the best hand, on the river, he has 3 of a kind that a huge hand and only the 5 and 9 beats him

Yeah I think, this is most likely, what happened. Someone playing that many hands is usually a very basic level 1 thinker. So his most likely thought process is something like "LOL I have a full house, I am all-in". Without even thinking about my range, or what he is trying to get called by.

 

[Marshmalo1994]

If the sample is that low, I'd try to make a quick check in the past hands, if he has showed any hand before.
Also, is a 6max, so the vpip range is always higher than usual.
I would do a 3bet in the flop, to protect my hand, cause I would fold for sure if in the turn comes a higher card.
He could have a better pocket pair, but he also could be betting with a top kicker 🤔.
After the turn I think that there's no way I would fold, assuming that there's a little chance of him having a better hand.